The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT–2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.     

Spitzer space telescope observations of SGR and AXP environments

Both Anomalous X-ray Pulsars (AXPs) and Soft Gamma Repeaters (SGRs) are thought to be manifestations of magnetars. However, the specific physical characteristics that differentiate the two classes of objects remain unclear. There is some evidence that the progenitors of these sources and/or the environment in which they form might influence the type of phenomena the resulting magnetar displays. Several of the AXPs appear to be associated with supernova remnants, while embedded clusters of massive stars have been found in the immediate vicinity of some SGRs. Since both AXPs and SGRs are distributed close to the Galactic plane, high extinction makes studies in the optical difficult. We present early results from our Spitzer program aimed at probing the environmental factors that might contribute to the difference in the observed characteristics between AXPs and SGRs.     

Thermal evolution of the early Moon

The early thermal evolution of Moon has been numerically simulated to understand the magnitude of the impact-induced heating and the initially stored thermal energy of the accreting moonlets. The main objective of the present study was to understand the nature of processes leading to core–mantle differentiation and the production and cooling of the initial convective magma ocean. The accretion of Moon was commenced over a time scale of 100 yr after the giant impact event around 30–100 million years in the early solar system. We studied the dependence of the planetary processes on the impact scenarios, the initial average temperature of the accreting moonlets, and the size of the protomoon that accreted rapidly beyond the Roche limit within the initial 1 yr after the giant impact. The simulations indicate that the accreting moonlets should have a minimum initial averaged temperature around 1600 K. The impacts would provide additional thermal energy. The initial thermal state of the moonlets depends upon the environment prevailing within the Roche limit that experienced episodes of extensive vaporization and recondensation of silicates. The initial convective magma ocean of depth more than 1000 km is produced in the majority of simulations along with the global core–mantle differentiation in case the melt percolation of the molten metal through porous flow from bulk silicates was not the major mode of core–mantle differentiation. The possibility of shallow magma oceans cannot be ruled out in the presence of the porous flow. Our simulations indicate the core–mantle differentiation within the initial 10² to 10³ yr of the Moon accretion. The majority of the convective magma ocean cooled down for crystallization within the initial 10³ to 10⁴ yr.     

Modeling of the strong ground motion of 25th April 2015 Nepal earthquake using modified semi-empirical technique

On 25th April, 2015 a hazardous earthquake of moment magnitude 7.9 occurred in Nepal. Accelerographs were used to record the Nepal earthquake which is installed in the Kumaon region in the Himalayan state of Uttrakhand. The distance of the recorded stations in the Kumaon region from the epicenter of the earthquake is about 420–515 km. Modified semi-empirical technique of modeling finite faults has been used in this paper to simulate strong earthquake at these stations. Source parameters of the Nepal aftershock have been also calculated using the Brune model in the present study which are used in the modeling of the Nepal main shock. The obtained value of the seismic moment and stress drop is 8.26 × 10²⁵ dyn cm and 10.48 bar, respectively, for the aftershock from the Brune model .The simulated earthquake time series were compared with the observed records of the earthquake. The comparison of full waveform and its response spectra has been made to finalize the rupture parameters and its location. The rupture of the earthquake was propagated in the NE–SW direction from the hypocenter with the rupture velocity 3.0 km/s from a distance of 80 km from Kathmandu in NW direction at a depth of 12 km as per compared results.     

Regional crop water use assessment using Landsat-derived evapotranspiration

Reliable information on water use and availability at basin and field scales are important to ensure the optimized constructive uses of available water resources. This study was conducted with the specific objective to estimate Landsat-based actual evapotranspiration (ETa) using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model across the state of South Dakota (SD), USA for the 1986–2018 (33-year) period. Validated ETa estimations (r² = 0.91, PBIAS = −4%, and %RMSE = 11.8%) were further used to understand the crop water-use characteristics and existing historic mono-directional (increasing/decreasing) trends over the eastern (ESD) and western (WSD) regions of SD. The crop water-use characteristics indicated that the annual cropland water uses across the ESD and WSD were more or less met by the precipitation amounts in the area. The ample water supply and distribution have led to high rainfed and low percentage of irrigated cropland (~2.5%) in the state. The WSD faced greater crop-water use reductions than the ESD during drought periods. The landscape ETa responses across the state were found to be more sensitive than precipitation for the drought impact assessments. The Mann Kendall trend analysis revealed the absence of a significant trend (p > 0.05) in annual ETa at a regional scale due to the varying weather conditions in the state. However, about 12% and 9% cropland areas in the ESD and WSD, respectively, revealed a significant mono-directional trend at pixel scale ETa. Most of the pixels under significant trend showed an increasing trend that can be explained by the shift in agricultural practices, increased irrigated cropland area, higher productions, moisture regime shifts, and decreased risk of farming in the dry areas. The decreasing trend pixels were clustered in mid-eastern SD and could be the result of dynamic conversion of wetlands to croplands and decreased irrigation practices in the region. This study also demonstrates the tremendous potential and robustness of the SSEBop model, Landsat imagery, and remote sensing-based ETa modelling approaches in estimating consistent spatially distributed evapotranspiration.     

Holocene climate variability from lake sediment core in Larsemann Hills,Antarctica

A sediment core (L2) from Larsemann Hills, Antarctica was analyzed for Biogenic Silica (BSi), Sand (%) and Total Organic Carbon (TOC). The 78 cm core length represents the time span of ∼8.3 cal ka BP. The values of BSi from the core show prominent high productivity from ∼8.3 to ∼6 cal ka BP in comparison to less productivity in mid-late Holocene (∼6 cal ka BP to recent). Moreover, high sand (%) infers the glacio-fluvial deposition from ∼8.3 to ∼5 cal ka BP TOC shows little variation through out the core, except in the upper ∼10 cm (∼4 cal ka BP) part wherein it is comparatively high. The increased TOC in the upper part of the core possibly indicates presence of algal mat due to exposure of the lake to the ice free (glacier free) conditions.     

South Asian monsoon response to weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a warming climate

Climate Dynamics - Observational records and climate model projections reveal a considerable decline in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Changes in the AMOC can have a...     

Calibration of a Multi-criteria Evaluation Based Cellular Automata Model for Indian Cities Having Varied Growth Patterns

The study aims to investigate the efficiency of Cellular Automata (CA) based models for simulation of urban growth in two Indian cities (Dehradun and Saharanpur) having different growth patterns. The transition rules in the CA model were defined using Multi-Criteria Evaluation technique. The model was calibrated by varying two parameters namely the neighbourhood (type and size) and model iterations. The model results were assessed using two measures, i.e., percent correct match and Moran’s Index. It was found that for Dehradun, which had a dispersed growth pattern, Von Neumann neighbourhood of small size produced the highest accuracy, in terms of pattern and location of simulated urban growth. For Saharanpur, which had a compact growth pattern, large neighbourhoods, produced the most optimum results, irrespective of the type of neighbourhood. For both study areas, large number of model iterations failed to increase the accuracy of urban growth assessment.     

Use of site amplification and anelastic attenuation for the determination of source parameters of the Sikkim earthquake of September 18, 2011, using far-field strong-motion data

An earthquake of magnitude 6.9 (M _w) occurred in the Sikkim region of India on September 18, 2011. This earthquake is recorded on strong-motion network in Uttarakhand Himalaya located about 900 km away from the epicenter of this earthquake. In this paper acceleration record from six far-field stations has been used to compute the source parameters of this earthquake. The acceleration spectra of ground motion at these far-field stations are strongly affected by both local site effects and near-site anelastic attenuation. In the present work the spectrum of S-phase recorded at these far-field stations has been corrected for anelastic attenuation at both source and site and the site amplification terms. Site amplifications at different stations and near-site shear wave attenuation factor have been computed by the technique of inversion of acceleration spectra given by Joshi et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 169:1821–1845, 2012a). For estimation of site amplification and shear wave quality factor [Q _β (f)] at the recording sites, ten local events recorded at various stations between July 2011 and December 2011 have been used. The obtained source spectrum from acceleration records is compared with the theoretical source spectrum defined by Brune (J Geophys Res 76:5002, 1970) at each station for both horizontal components of the records. Iterative forward modeling of theoretical source spectrum gives the average estimate of seismic moment (M _o), source radius (r _o) and stress drop (Δσ) as (3.2 ± 0.8) × 10²⁶ dyne cm, 13.3 ± 0.8 km and 59.2 ± 8.8 bars, respectively, for the Sikkim earthquake of September 18, 2011.