Future changes in rainfall,temperature and reference evapotranspiration in the central India by least square support vector machine

Climate change affects the environment and natural resources immensely. Rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration are major parameters of climate affecting changes in the environment. Evapotranspiration plays a key role in crop production and water balance of a region, one of the major parameters affected by climate change. The reference evapotranspiration or ET₀ is a calculated parameter used in this research. In the present study, changes in the future rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, and ET₀ have been shown by downscaling the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) model data. The selected study area is located in a part of the Narmada river basin area in Madhya Pradesh in central India. The downscaled outputs of projected rainfall, ET₀ and temperatures have been shown for the 21st century with the HADCM3 data of A2 scenario by the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) model. The efficiency of the LS-SVM model was measured by different statistical methods. The selected predictors show considerable correlation with the rainfall and temperature and the application of this model has been done in a basin area which is an agriculture based region and is sensitive to the change of rainfall and temperature. Results showed an increase in the future rainfall, temperatures and ET₀. The temperature increase is projected in the high rise of minimum temperature in winter time and the highest increase in maximum temperature is projected in the pre-monsoon season or from March to May. Highest increase is projected in the 2080s in 2081–2091 and 2091–2099 in maximum temperature and 2091–2099 in minimum temperature in all the stations. Winter maximum temperature has been observed to have increased in the future. High rainfall is also observed with higher ET₀ in some decades. Two peaks of the increase are observed in ET₀ in the April–May and in the October. Variation in these parameters due to climate change might have an impact on the future water resource of the study area, which is mainly an agricultural based region, and will help in proper planning and management.     

Non-radial magnetic field structures in the solar corona

We report on the structure and geometry of coronal magnetic fields inferred from the observations of meter-decimeter type III and moving type IV radio bursts, associated with a Hα flare. This is the first report of type III radio bursts from the Nançay radioheliograph after it acquired the two-dimensional multifrequency capability. Dispersion of the radio source positions with frequency suggests that open and closed field lines are considerably inclined to the radial direction which is consistent with the connectivity observed in the magnetogram. We suggest that multiple arch systems are involved in the type IV emission. From the polarization and dispersion characteristics of the type IV source, we infer that the emission is due to fundamental plasma emission.     

Decameter storm radiation,II

The physical properties of six decametric storms, observed at Clark Lake Radio Observatory are studied. The height of the storm continuum sources was determined from the rotation rate. Assuming that the radiation originates at the plasma frequency we computed the gradient of electron density for the regions where the storms originate. The mean angular size of the decametric continuum sources is large; it increases with decreasing frequency. The storm continuum is found to be strongly directive toward the disk center. The east-west asymmetry, well observed at meter wavelengths is also observed at decameter wavelengths. The occurrence of two distinct classes of type III bursts in storms is discussed: ‘off-fringe’ and ‘onfringe’ type Ill's. The ‘off-fringe’ Ill's are found to be displaced in position from the continuum source ; on the other hand, the ‘on-fringe’ ones coincide in position with the continuum. These two kinds of bursts differ in other properties as well. A model of the storm region is proposed. The continuum radiation and the ‘on-fringe’ type III's are believed to originate above closed magnetic loops, in regions of diverging field lines; the ‘offfringe’ type Ill's are thought to be excited by energetic electron streams, having access to open magnetic field lines at the base of the loops.     

Positions of type II fundamental and harmonic sources in the 30–100 MHz range

Observations of a type II burst with fundamental and harmonic structure were made, with the Clark Lake Radio Observatory's E-W and N-S sweep frequency interferometers operating in the range 120–20 MHz with time and frequency resolution of 1 s and 100 kHz, respectively. The type II burst was preceded by a type III-type V, and the associated flare of importance SN was located at S 20 W 73. The interferometric data show that the fundamental and harmonic were coincident in position. Further, the type III positions as a function of frequency were practically the same as those of the type II burst. The implications of these results are discussed.     

Clark lake microbursts: On a lower limit to type III burst brightness temperatures

Further observations of solar microbursts by the Clark Lake radioheliograph are reported. The microbursts have properties consistent with weak type III bursts, with the implication that type III's can have brightness temperatures as low as 10⁶ K. We explore the importance of this result. A single model to explain the stronger type III bursts and the weaker microbursts is sought. We show that none of the models for stabilizing the strongest type III electron streams can explain the observed microbursts: these models have threshold levels of Langmuir waves which imply emission (due to spontaneous scattering off ions) with brightness temperatures in excess of those observed. It appears that either some vital physics is still missing from models for type III bursts, or that microbursts should have properties significantly different from those of type III bursts. In the latter case further observations should allow important tests of type III models.     

Radio interferometric observations of solar bursts at 3.7 and 11.1 cm wavelengths

Several solar active regions were observed during the 1976 vernal equinox with the 3-element interferometer of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory. The element spacings for these observations were 600, 2100, and 2700 m, resulting in maximum angular resolutions of about 3 arc sec at 3.7 cm and 8.5 arc sec at 11.1 cm. We fitted the fringe visibility for each baseline pair as a function of projected baseline with a single gaussian component, and calculated the extrapolated flux at zero baseline, F ₀, the FWHM source size, a, and the peak brightness temperature T _b. We present physical parameters derived for the observed bursts.     

Toxicity of Diluted Dyeing and Printing Industry Effluent to a Penaeid Prawn,Parapenaeopsis sculptilis (Heller)

Experiments were carried out on the toxicity of diluted dyeing and printing industry effluent to a penaeid prawn, Parapenaeopsis sculptilis (Heller). Effluent tolerance experiments showed that both juvenile and adult prawns were unable to withstand the increasing concentration of the effluent. Juveniles were more susceptible to effluent than adults. As a consequence of higher consumption of energy due to the disturbed metabolism a decrease in the metabolite content was observed, whereas the content of ions showed an irregular trend with all the concentrations. The behavioural study showed that before death both juvenile and adult prawns became inactive, followed by paralysis. The physico-chemical nature of the effluent showed high amounts of solids, BOD, COD, sodium, magnesium, calcium, chloride, ammonium nitrogen, sulphate and absence of DO, probably causing an osmotic imbalance in the prawn body which leads to early mortality. Even a 1% concentration of such an effluent of a physico-chemical nature was reported to be toxic to the prawns.     

Decameter studies of the 5 September 1973 flare

We discuss the spectra and positions of the meter-decameter wavelength radio sources associated with the 5 September 1973 flare. We discuss the evolution of the size of the type II burst source and show that it fluctuates by a factor of 10, or larger. Consequently, the potential and kinetic energies associated with the shock are uncertain by the same factor. By comparing the positions of the type II and type III sources we conclude that while the shock wave associated with the type II was guided along high loops, the type III electrons were injected along open field lines which diverged within a short height in the corona. The characteristics of a particularly interesting type III burst with a low-frequency cut-off are discussed. We argue that nearby loops were not disrupted by the shock and that the energetic electrons produced during the event must have been injected at several sites and guided along open field lines at large distances from the flare to produce type III bursts.     

Flows and sediment dynamics in the Ganga River under present and future climate scenarios

Identification of factors controlling sediment dynamics under natural flow regimes can establish a baseline for quantifying effects of present day hydrological alteration and future climate change on sediment delivery and associated flooding. The process-based INCA-Sediment model was used to simulate Ganga River sediment transport under baseline conditions and to quantify possible future changes using three contrasting climate scenarios. Construction of barrages and canals has significantly altered natural flow regimes, with profound consequences for sediment transport. Projected increases in future monsoonal precipitation will lead to higher peak flows, increasing flood frequency and greater water availability. Increased groundwater recharge during monsoon periods and greater rates of evaporation due to increased temperature complicate projections of water availability in non-monsoon periods. Rainfall and land surface interaction in high-relief areas drive uncertainties in Upper Ganga sediment loads. However, higher monsoonal peak flows will increase erosion and sediment delivery in western and lower reaches.