Simplified method for scenario-based risk assessment adaptation planning in the coastal zone

The development of successful coastal adaptation strategies for both the built and natural environments requires combining scenarios of climate change and socio-economic conditions, and risk assessment. Such planning needs to consider the adaptation costs and residual damages over time that may occur given a range of possible storm conditions for any given sea level rise scenario. Using the metric of the expected value of annual adaptation costs and residual damages, or another metric that can be related to the elevation of flooding, a simplified method to carry this out is presented. The approach relies upon developing damage-flooding depth probability exceedance curves for various scenarios over a given planning period and determining the areas under the curves. While the approach does have limitations, it is less complex to implement than using Monte Carlo simulation approaches and may be more intuitive to decision makers. A case study in Maine, USA is carried out to illustrate the method.     

Identifying climatic analogs for Wisconsin under 21st-century climate-change scenarios

There is a deep disconnect between scientific and public concern about climate change. One reason is that global climate change is a fairly abstract concept with little perceived relevance, so a key challenge is to translate climate-change projections into locally concrete examples of potential impacts. Here we use climate analog analyses as an alternative method for identifying and communicating climate-change impacts. Our analysis uses multiple downscaled general circulation models for the state of Wisconsin, at 0.1 decimal degree resolution, and identifies contemporary locations in North America that are the most similar to the projected future climates for Wisconsin. We assess the uncertainties inherent in climate-change projections among greenhouse gas emission scenarios, time windows (mid-21st century vs. late 21st-century) and different combinations of climate variables. For all future scenarios and simulations, contemporary climatic analogs within North America were found for Wisconsin’s future climate. Closest analogs are primarily 200–500 km to the south-southwest of their Wisconsin reference location. Temperature has the largest effect on choice of climatic analog, but precipitation is the greatest source of uncertainty. Under the higher-end emission scenarios, the contemporary climatic analogs for Wisconsin’s end-21st-century climates are almost entirely outside the state. Climate-analog analyses offer a place-based means of assessing climate impacts that is complementary to the species-based approaches of species distributional models, and carries no assumptions about the characterization and conservatism of species niches. The analog method is simple and flexible, and can be readily extended to other regions and other environmental variables.     

Novel C15 sesquiterpanes in Niger Delta oils: Structural identification and potential application as new markers of angiosperm input in light oils

Two new C₁₅ sesquiterpanes have been isolated from a Niger Delta oil. Based on nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) data, their structures are similar to the ring D and E part of oleanane. The mass spectra show an m/z 193 base peak typical of rearranged drimanes. They have been found only in oleanane-containing oils with a Cretaceous or Tertiary source. Data are presented for 34 such oils from Angola, Canada, Greece, India, Indonesia, Iran, New Zealand, Nigeria, Thailand and Vietnam. The ratio between the new sesquiterpanes and rearranged drimanes roughly follows the oleanane index. They are absent from marine oils whose source rock age (Jurassic or older) predates the evolution and proliferation of angiosperms. They are probably formed via degradation of functionalized oleanoids or by cleavage of seco-oleananes. These sesquiterpanes may be useful as markers of angiosperm input in light oils (jet fuel, diesel or condensates) usually devoid of higher molecular weight markers for higher plant input.     

Sedimentology and depositional environments of the Maastrichtian Patti Formation, southeastern Bida Basin, Nigeria

The Maastrichtian Patti Formation, which consists of shale - claystone and sandstone members, constitutes one of the three Upper Cretaceous lithostratigraphic units of the intracratonic southeastern Bida Basin, in central Nigeria. Well exposed outcrops of this formation were investigated at various locations around the confluence of the Niger and Benue Rivers. The lithostratigraphic sections were measured and their peculiar sedimentological features such as textures, physical and biogenic sedimentary structures, facies variations and associations were documented and used to interpret the depositional environments and develop a paleogeographic model. Some selected representative samples of the sedimentary depositional facies were also subjected to grain size analysis.Three shoreline sedimentary depositional facies composed of shoreface, tidal channel, and tidal marsh to coastal swamp facies were recognized in the study area. Continental sedimentary depositional facies such as fluvial channel, swamp, and overbank were also documented. The sandstones of the shoreface and tidal channel facies are medium- to coarse-grained, moderately sorted (standard deviation ranges from 0.45–1.28 averaging 0.72), and quartzarenitic. The fluvial channel sandstone facies are coarse- to very coarse-grained, mostly poorly sorted (standard deviation ranges from 0.6–1.56 averaging 1.17), and subarkosic. Typical sedimentary structures displayed by the shoreface and tidal channel facies include burrows, clay drapes, hummocky and herringbone cross stratifications, whereas the fluvial channel sandstone facies are dominated by massive and planar cross beddings. The tidal marsh to coastal swamp shales and ferruginised siltstone facies are fossiliferous and bioturbated, whereas the nonmarine swamp siltstones contain vegetal imprints and lignite interbeds. The overbank claystone facies are massive and kaolinitic.In the study area, a regressive to transgressive model is proposed for the Patti Formation. This model correlates with stratigraphically equivalent sediments of the Ajali and Mamu Formations in the adjacent Anambra Basin to a great extent.     

U‐Pb Geochronological and Thermochronological Time–Temperature Constraints of 40Ar/39Ar Hornblende Reference Material HB3gr

Hornblende from the Lone Grove Pluton, Llano Uplift, Texas, has served as an irradiation reference material in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar studies for decades. In order to evaluate the apparent age bias that currently exists between the U‐Pb and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar systems, zircon and titanite were dated by isotope dilution‐thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (ID‐TIMS) from the same rock from which the hornblende ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar reference material HB3gr is derived. Zircon U‐Pb data indicate initial crystallisation at 1090.10 ± 0.16 Ma (2s), a date that is 1.7% older than the accepted K‐Ar date (1072 ± 14 Ma, 2s) for HB3gr; an offset that exceeds the typical 0.5–1% bias between the two systems, though remaining within uncertainty due to the large uncertainties in the ⁴⁰K decay constant. Zircon data are presented using both EARTHTIME tracers ET535 and ET2535 and are statistically indistinguishable. Single grain titanite analyses range between 1082 ± 0.75 and 1086 ± 0.81 Ma (2s) and are interpreted to record the subsequent cooling following crystallisation at rates between 30 and 50 °C Ma^?1. This is supported by the observation that hornblende ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates corrected for decay constant bias are resolvably younger than the zircon U‐Pb date and in good agreement with titanite U‐Pb dates, permitting the conclusion that both titanite U‐Pb and hornblende ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar systems provide a record of cooling.     

On the Machian origin of inertia

We examine Sciama’s inertia theory: we generalise it, by combining rotation and expansion in one unique model, we find the angular speed of the Universe, and we stress that the theory is zero-total-energy valued. We compare with other theories of the same null energy background. We determine the numerical value of a constant which appears in the Machian inertial force expression devised by Graneau and Graneau (In the Grip of the Distant Universe—the Science of Inertia, World Scientific, Singapore, 2006), by introducing the above angular speed. We point out that this last theory is not restricted to Newtonian physics as those authors stated but is, in fact, compatible with other cosmological and gravitational theories. An argument by Berry (Principles of Cosmology and Gravitation, Adam Hilger, Bristol, 1989) is shown in order to “derive” Brans-Dicke relation in the present context.     

Astrometry of Southern radio sources

An overview is presented of a number of astrometry and astrophysics programs based on radio sources from the Parkes 2.7 GHz catalogues. The programs cover the optical identification and spectroscopy of flat-spectrum Parkes sources and the determination of their milliarc-second radio structures and positions. Work is also in progress to tie together the radio and Hipparcos positional reference frames. A parallel program of radio and optical astrometry of southern radio stars is also under way.     

The D/H ratio of cellulose in a New ZealandPinus radiata; A reply to the criticism of A.T. Wilson and M.J. Grinsted

D/H ratios of C-H hydrogen in cellulose extracted from 19 successive increments of wood from three adjacent tree rings from aPinus radiata grown in New Zealand in 1915–1918 follow qualitatively the isotopic pattern of the D/H ratio of the precipitation of the Kailaia area in New Zealand. This relationship between the D/H ratio of the cellulose and precipitation is the opposite to that claimed by Wilson and Grinsted [Nature 257 (1975) 287–288]. Consequently their biochemical thermometer based on the relationship between the D/H ratio in cellulose of thePinus radiata and temperature has no basis. Their arguments based on the data of Epstein and Yapp [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 30 (1976) 252–261] to support their biochemical thermometer is also shown to be invalid.     

The concentration and isotopic composition of hydrogen,carbon and nitrogen in carbonaceous meteorites

Concentrations and isotopic compositions were determined for H₂, N₂ and C extracted by stepwise pyrolysis from powdered meteorites, from residues of meteorites partially dissolved with aqueous HF, and from residues of meteorites reacted with HF-HCl solutions. The meteorites treated were the carbonaceous chondrites, Orgueil, Murray, Murchison, Renazzo and Cold Bokkeveld. Data determined for whole rock samples are in approximate agreement with previously published data. Acidification of the meteorites removed the inorganic sources of H₂, so that H₂ in the HF-HCl acid residues came primarily from insoluble organic matter, which makes up 70–80% fraction of the total carbon in carbonaceous meteorites. The δD in the organic matter differs markedly from previously determined values in organic matter in meteorites. The δD values of organic matter from acid residues of C1 and C2 carbonaceous chondrites range from +650 to + 1150%. The acid residues of the Renazzo meteorite, whose total H₂ has a δD of +930‰, gave a δD value of +2500‰. Oxidation of the HF-HCl residue with H₂O₂ solution removes the high δD and the low δ¹⁵N components. The δ¹³C values range between ?10 and ?21 and δ¹⁵N values range between +40 and ?11. The δ¹⁵N of Renazzo is unusual; its values range between +150 and ?190.There is good correlation between δD and the concentration of H₂ in the acid residues, but no correlation exists between δD, δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N in them. A simple model is proposed to explain the high δD values, and the relationships between δD values and the concentration of H₂. This model depends on the irradiation of gaseous molecules facilitating reaction between ionic molecules, and indicates that an increase in the rate of polymerization and accumulation of organic matter on grains would produce an increase in the deuterium concentration in organic matter.     

Intensity of the Earth''s magnetic field over the last 10 000 years

Analyses of over 600 archaeomagnetic data compiled by Burlatskaya and Nachasova (1977) illustrate that our knowledge of the intensity of the Earth's magnetic field is much poorer than generally believed. The data exhibit high scatter and the distribution of sampling localities is extremely limited. Rock magnetic and experimental contributions to the scatter are probably significant, although it is impossible to determine uniquely the sources of scatter without a substantial increase in the data base and without making additional assumptions about the past magnetic field behaviour. Nevertheless, when averaged in 1000 year intervals, the archaeomagnetic intensity data for the past 5000 years can be simply, but non-uniquely, interpreted in terms of a change in the intensity of the dipole field. This interpretation is broadly consistent with independent evidence from radiocarbon data. Because of inconsistencies in radiocarbon data prior to 8000 years B.P. and because of inadequacies in the archaeomagnetic data, the previously alleged sinusoidal variation of the dipole field intensity with a period of 8000–9000 years should be regarded as highly tentative.