Metallic Mineral Resources in the Twenty-First Century. I. Historical Extraction Trends and Expected Demand

Industrial, technological, and economic developments depend on the availability of metallic raw materials. As a greater fraction of the Earth’s population has become part of developed economies and as developed societies have become more affluent, the demand on metallic mineral resources has increased. Yet metallic minerals are non-renewable natural resources, the supply of which, even if unknown and potentially large, is finite. An analysis of historical extraction trends for eighteen metals, going back to the year 1900, demonstrates that demand of metallic raw materials has increased as a result of both increase in world population and increase in per-capita consumption. These eighteen metals can be arranged into four distinct groups, for each of which it is possible to identify a consistent pattern of per-capita demand as a function of time. These patterns can, in turn, be explained in terms of the industrial and technological applications, and in some cases conventional uses as well, of the metals in each group. Under the assumption that these patterns will continue into the future, and that world population will grow by no more than about 50% by the year 2100, one can estimate the amount of metallic raw materials that will be required to sustain the world’s economy throughout the twenty-first century. From the present until the year 2100, the world can be expected to require about one order of magnitude more metal than the total amount of metal that fueled technological and economic growth between the age of steam and the present day. For most of the metals considered here, this corresponds to 5–10 times the amount of metal contained in proven ore reserves. The two chief driving factors of this expected demand are growth in per-capita consumption and present-day absolute population numbers. World population is already so large that additional population growth makes only a small contribution to the expected future demand of metallic raw materials. It is not known whether or not the amount of metal required to sustain the world’s economy throughout this century exists in exploitable mineral resources. In the accompanying paper, I show that it is nevertheless possible to make statistical inferences about the size distribution of the mineral deposits that will need to be discovered and developed in order to satisfy the expected demand. Those results neither prove nor disprove that the needed resources exist but can be used to improve our understanding of the challenges facing future supply of metallic raw materials.     

Sequence hierarchy in a Mesoproterozoic interior sag basin: from basin fill to reservoir scale,the Tombador Formation,Chapada Diamantina Basin,Brazil

The Tombador Formation exhibits depositional sequence boundaries placed at the base of extensive amalgamated fluvial sand sheets or at the base of alluvial fan conglomeratic successions that indicate basinward shifts of facies. The hierarchy system that applies to the Tombador Formation includes sequences of different orders, which are defined as follows: sequences associated with a particular tectonic setting are designated as ‘first order’ and are separated by first‐order sequence boundaries where changes in the tectonic setting are recorded; second‐order sequences represent the major subdivisions of a first‐order sequence and reflect cycles of change in stratal stacking pattern observed at 10² m scales (i.e., 200–300 m); changes in stratal stacking pattern at 10¹ m scales indicate third‐order sequences (i.e., 40–70 m); and changes in stratal stacking pattern at 10⁰ m scales are assigned to the fourth order (i.e., 8–12 m). Changes in palaeogeography due to relative sea level changes are recorded at all hierarchical levels, with a magnitude that increases with the hierarchical rank. Thus, the Tombador Formation corresponds to one‐first‐order sequence, representing a distinct intracratonic sag basin fill in the polycyclic history of the Espinhaço Supergroup in Chapada Diamantina Basin. An angular unconformity separates fluvial‐estuarine to alluvial fan deposits and marks the second‐order boundary. Below the angular unconformity the third‐order sequences record fluvial to estuarine deposition. In contrast, above the angular unconformity these sequences exhibit continental alluvial successions composed conglomerates overlain by fluvial and eolian strata. Fourth‐order sequences are recognized within third‐order transgressive systems tract, and they exhibit distinct facies associations depending on their occurrence at estuarine or fluvial domains. At the estuarine domain, they are composed of tidal channel, tidal bar and overlying shoreface heterolithic strata. At the fluvial domain the sequences are formed of fluvial deposits bounded by fine‐grained or tidal influenced intervals. Fine grained intervals are the most reliable to map in fourth‐order sequences because of their broad laterally extensive sheet‐like external geometry. Therefore, they constitute fourth‐order sequence boundaries that, at the reservoir approach, constitute the most important horizontal heterogeneity and, hence, the preferable boundaries of production zones. The criteria applied to assign sequence hierarchies in the Tombador Formation are based on rock attributes, are easy to apply, and can be used as a baseline for the study of sequence stratigraphy in Precambrian and Phanerozoic basins placed in similar tectonic settings.     

High-dimensional geostatistical history matching

Hydrocarbon reservoir modelling and characterisation is a challenging subject within the oil and gas industry due to the lack of well data and the natural heterogeneities of the Earth’s subsurface. Integrating historical production data into the geo-modelling workflow, commonly designated by history matching, allows better reservoir characterisation and the possibility of predicting the reservoir behaviour. We present herein a geostatistical-based multi-objective history matching methodology. It starts with the generation of an initial ensemble of the subsurface petrophysical property of interest through stochastic sequential simulation. Each model is then ranked according the match between its dynamic response, after fluid flow simulation, and the observed available historical production data. This enables building regionalised Pareto fronts and the definition of a large ensemble of optimal subsurface Earth models that fit all the observed production data without compromising the exploration of the uncertainty space. The proposed geostatistical multi-objective history matching technique is successfully implemented in a benchmark synthetic reservoir dataset, the PUNQ-S3, where 12 objectives are targeted.     

An orthotropic interface damage model for simulating drying processes in soils

The study of drying process in soils has received an increased attention in the last few years. This is very complex phenomenon that generally leads to the formation and propagation of desiccation cracks in the soil mass. In recent engineering applications, high aspect ratio elements have proved to be well suited to tackle this type of problem using finite elements. However, the modeling of interfaces between materials with orthotropic properties that generally exist in this type of problem using standard (isotropic) constitutive model is very complex and challenging in terms of the mesh generation, leading to very fine meshes that are intensive CPU demanding. A novel orthotropic interface mechanical model based on damage mechanics and capable of dealing with interfaces between materials in which the strength depends on the direction of analysis is proposed in this paper. The complete mathematical formulation is presented together with the algorithm suggested for its numerical implementation. Some simple yet challenging synthetic benchmarks are analyzed to explore the model capabilities. Laboratory tests using different textures at the contact surface between materials were conducted to evaluate the strengths of the interface in different directions. These experiments were then used to validate the proposed model. Finally, the approach is applied to simulate an actual desiccation test involving an orthotropic contact surface. In all the application cases the performance of the model was very satisfactory.     

Groundwater characteristics within loessic deposits: the coastal springs of Los Acantilados,Mar del Plata,Argentina

The urban growth of the southern neighborhoods of Mar del Plata City provoked significant changes in the groundwater balance of the loessic sequences. These regional loessic levels with a significant portion of volcanic ash layers were reported subject to fluoride and nitrate concentrations. Residential houses pump from sands located 70 m depth and withdraw the sewages to depths less than 5 m. These effects cause significant local and seasonal (summer) increments of the water table outcropping via springs at certain unconformities of the coastal cliffs. A mathematical model was applied to analyze the water level lowering at the productive levels, while there is a decrease in the quality of the upper levels subject to waste discharges. Much of this groundwater flow is concentrated in unconformities between different types of sediments. Human activities have affected the aquifer dynamics increasing the groundwater pumping rates and the return velocity of the sewages. This should be considered in the management strategies of coastal hydric resources.     

Soil wettability in ground engineering: fundamentals,methods, and applications

Wettability is a fundamental property controlling the extent of wetting in flat and granular solids. In natural soils, wettability affects a wide variety of processes including infiltration, preferential flow and surface runoff. In mineral processing, wettability is paramount in enhancing the efficiency of separation of minerals from gangue. The manipulation of surface wettability is equally crucial in many industrial applications. For instance, superhydrophobic surfaces are those on which water drops roll off easily and as such are used for self-cleaning applications. Therefore, while wettability is strongly cross-disciplinary, its evolution has been discipline-specific with a direct extrapolation or transfer of concepts, approaches, and methods to ground engineering unlikely to remain valid. This paper synthesizes relevant aspects from surface chemistry, materials science, mining engineering, and soil science, and discusses their implications within the context of new granular materials that resist wetting, for use in barriers or ground improvement and, in unsaturated soils, where the effects of wettability have been documented.     

Bioaccumulation of heavy metals in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Limnobium laevigatum</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ludwigia peploides</Emphasis>: their phytoremediation potential in water contaminated with heavy metals

Contamination with heavy metals in surface and groundwater is a threat to human health and ecosystems. Due to this, the need arises to remediate water polluted through ecological and profitable technologies, such as phytoremediation. The objective of the work was to evaluate the concentration of lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn) in the floating macrophytes Limnobium laevigatum and Ludwigia peploides, after being exposed to contaminated water experimentally. In this way to be able to determine if these plants have mechanisms that allow them to accumulate the metals in the roots and to perform the translocation of these to different vegetative organs, L. laevigatum and L. peploides were placed in solutions contaminated with Pb ([Pb]?=?5 mg/l) and Zn ([Zn]?=?20 mg/l). The concentrations of metals in water, root and leaf samples were evaluated as a function of time (0, 1, 2 and 4 days). The determination of the metals was performed by the atomic absorption spectrophotometry technique. After 4 days of exposure to Pb and Zn, the plants showed high metal removal efficiencies of water, more to 70% in all cases. Pb was accumulated fundamentally by roots, while Zn was accumulated more in the leaves. In addition, the bioconcentration and translocation factors for each metal were calculated.     

Assessing the performance of WRF model in predicting high-impact weather conditions over Central and Western Africa: an ensemble-based approach

Natural Hazards - For numerical weather prediction over a particular region, it is important to know the best combination of physical parameterizations available in the considered modelling frame...