Metallic Mineral Resources in the Twenty-First Century. I. Historical Extraction Trends and Expected Demand

Industrial, technological, and economic developments depend on the availability of metallic raw materials. As a greater fraction of the Earth’s population has become part of developed economies and as developed societies have become more affluent, the demand on metallic mineral resources has increased. Yet metallic minerals are non-renewable natural resources, the supply of which, even if unknown and potentially large, is finite. An analysis of historical extraction trends for eighteen metals, going back to the year 1900, demonstrates that demand of metallic raw materials has increased as a result of both increase in world population and increase in per-capita consumption. These eighteen metals can be arranged into four distinct groups, for each of which it is possible to identify a consistent pattern of per-capita demand as a function of time. These patterns can, in turn, be explained in terms of the industrial and technological applications, and in some cases conventional uses as well, of the metals in each group. Under the assumption that these patterns will continue into the future, and that world population will grow by no more than about 50% by the year 2100, one can estimate the amount of metallic raw materials that will be required to sustain the world’s economy throughout the twenty-first century. From the present until the year 2100, the world can be expected to require about one order of magnitude more metal than the total amount of metal that fueled technological and economic growth between the age of steam and the present day. For most of the metals considered here, this corresponds to 5–10 times the amount of metal contained in proven ore reserves. The two chief driving factors of this expected demand are growth in per-capita consumption and present-day absolute population numbers. World population is already so large that additional population growth makes only a small contribution to the expected future demand of metallic raw materials. It is not known whether or not the amount of metal required to sustain the world’s economy throughout this century exists in exploitable mineral resources. In the accompanying paper, I show that it is nevertheless possible to make statistical inferences about the size distribution of the mineral deposits that will need to be discovered and developed in order to satisfy the expected demand. Those results neither prove nor disprove that the needed resources exist but can be used to improve our understanding of the challenges facing future supply of metallic raw materials.     

Classification of washover dynamics in barrier islands

This study systematically classifies washover dynamics with reference to coastal changes along the Ria Formosa barrier islands (Southern Portugal). Identification of washovers using a sequence of 11 sets of aerial photographs dated between 1947 and 2001 allowed a classification to be developed based on: (1) overwash evolution (increasing, decreasing, or constant overwash processes); (2) the mechanisms promoting washover formation (exceptional to infrequent oceanographic conditions, washout processes, structural erosion, inlet dynamics, and human interventions); and (3) the mechanisms promoting washover cessation (berm development, structural erosion, dune development, inlet dynamics, and human interventions). A total of 369 different washovers were observed along the Ria Formosa barriers during the study period, with 209 washovers being formed in various types of dune morphology and 303 being obliterated. The number of washovers was relatively stable from 1947 to 1972, and increased dramatically between 1972 and 1976 probably as a result of the development of immature inlet margins and downdrift starvation. From 1976 to 2001, washover occurrences declined and their spatial dimensions decreased, leading to a decrease in overwash activity over this time. Overall, the dominant formation mechanisms of washovers in the Ria Formosa were inlet dynamics (accounting for 57% of washovers formed) and structural erosion (20%), with human intervention mechanisms accounting for 12%. The cessation of washovers was dominated by dune development (33% of the washovers obliterated) followed by inlet dynamics (24%) and structural erosion (19%), while human intervention mechanisms accounted for 13%. The classification should be of use for the coastal management of barrier systems including the definition of overwash-prone areas and the determination of the relative importance of the mechanisms contributing to washover formation and cessation.     

Sedimentology and palynology of the Calafate Formation (Maastrichtian), Austral Basin, Southern Patagonia, Argentina

The Calafate Formation crops out in south-western Santa Cruz Province, Argentina, and displays a stacking of asymmetrical coarsening–fining-upward cycles. These cycles are interpreted as the product of short-lived transgressive-regressive events in which the coarsening upward part represents sedimentary aggradation with a stable or decreasing sea level. Sedimentological and palynological analyses indicate nearshore marine conditions. Even though the existence of an estuary or incised valley cannot be determined, this is the most probable palaeogeographic model. Based on dinoflagellate cysts, the base of the section is considered to be not older than Maastrichtian. The presence of the oyster Ambigostrea clarae (Ihering) occurring together with the dinoflagellate cyst species Manumiella druggii (Stover) Bujak and Davies and Eisenackia circumtabulata Drugg in the middle part of the section indicates an age no older than late Maastrichtian. According to sedimentological data, deposits representing the Cretaceous–Palaeogene transition would have been eroded, which is confirmed by the presence of Grapnelispora loncochensis Papú. This megaspore is a consistent component of the Maastrichtian assemblages from Patagonia.     

Catastrophic debris flows near Machu Picchu village (Aguas Calientes), Peru

Slope movements together with intensive river erosion and the following accumulation are the leading processes in the landscape evolution in the area of Machu Picchu village (former Aguas Calientes), which is located close to the Machu Picchu Sanctuary. Debris flows affect not only the bottoms of valleys or canyons, but also debris fans at the termini of the drainage basins, which are heavily inhabited at some places. The most recent event in the Machu Picchu village occurred in April 2004, but several others were documented in a broader area in the last 50 years. The field inspections at Machu Picchu (May and September 2004; June and September 2005) together with oral testimony revealed the nature and behavior of the debris flow. Machu Picchu village can be assessed as a zone with high landslide risk in relation to its urban development. Despite that, the village recorded a rapid growth (threefold population increase) without urban control within the past two decades. Precipitation, which is the main triggering factor of the debris flows, and natural hazard management of the Machu Picchu village are discussed in this paper.     

Numerical homogenization-based seismic assessment of an English-bond masonry prototype: Structural level application

A multiscale strategy is evaluated at a structural level for the analysis of unreinforced masonry structures. The mechanical characterization of the masonry is deduced from homogenization-based micro-scale finite element (FE) models. The derived data are here employed at a structural level via a discrete FE model. The discrete FE model is composed of quadrilateral rigid plates interconnected through vertical and horizontal interfaces. On the interfaces, between adjoining discrete elements, a model that accounts for the in- and out-of-plane behavior of masonry, with damage and plasticity, is adopted. Such interfaces represent the material pre- and post-peak regimes, its orthotropy, and, depending on the micro-model assumed, account by three-dimensional shear effects that are especially important for multi-leaf walls and complex regular textures. The discrete model has been implemented in an advanced structural analysis software where powerful built-in features as the arc-length method, line-search algorithm, and implicit or explicit solver schemes are available. The multi-scale model is applied for the dynamic study of a small English-bond masonry house prototype subjected to a series of consecutive earthquake records. Detailed comparisons between the experimental and numerical data are presented, including the results obtained through a continuous total strain rotating crack model. Quasi-static and dynamic analyses are conducted. Results demonstrate that when enough experimental information is available on the masonry components under tension, shear, and compression regimes, the approach predicts well the seismic structural response in terms of time-history displacements, seismic capacity, and damage patterns. The required computational cost (CPU time) is very attractive.     

Wind and freshwater influence over hydrocarbon dispersal on Patos Lagoon, Brazil

The two-dimensional barotropic, hydrodynamic and transport model MOHID is applied to the Patos Lagoon system using a nested modelling approach to reproduce both the lagoon and estuary hydrodynamics. A new Lagrangian oil spill model is presented and used to simulate a hypothetical oil spill in the estuary. Hydrodynamic fields are validated and used to force the oil model. Results show that the hydrodynamics of this system is mainly controlled by the wind and freshwater discharge. The dispersion, concentration and thickness evolution of the oil in the first day after the spill is determined by the equilibrium between these two factors. The freshwater discharge is the major factor controlling the oil dispersion for discharges greater than 5000 m3 while the wind assumes control for lower discharge amounts. The results presented are a first step toward a coastal management tool for the Patos Lagoon.     

Camacho inlet southern Brazil - Instability causes and user conflicts

Inlet stabilization is a common practice in Brazil, as it is worldwide. In this paper we present results of the analysis of the stabilization practices of the Camacho Inlet, located in Santa Catarina State, southern Brazil. This inlet is maintained intermittently, in accordance with a regime designed to benefit both local fishermen and rice farmers. Fishermen require this inlet to be open as a navigation channel during the fishing season; rice farmers needs it closed during the irrigation period to allow the pumping of fresh water from the Congonhas River which drains into the Camacho’s backbarrier lagoon. An additional complication arises from the tendency of this inlet to close naturally due to infilling by dune migration. Aerial images spanning a 65 year time period (1938-2003) were analyzed, demonstrating the variability in the inlet’s width between 0 (closed) and 360 m. The analysis of inlet stability and user needs indicate that an appropriate solution is the implementation of an annual inlet dredging program in the austral autumn. This would allow for the inlet to remain open from May to September and then close naturally for the rest of the year, providing for a backbarrier fresh water reservoir during the irrigation period.     

The Common Fisheries Policy: An enforcement problem

Marine populations in Europe are in decline due to the unsuccessful results of the Common Fisheries Policy. By combining data of scientific recommendations from ICES, TACs approved and reported landings with an age-structured model, the objectives of this paper are to investigate the level of compliance of the TAC regulation, and the level of enforcement and its economic impact on fishery resources. The results presented here suggest that while there does not exist a regular pattern between TAC proposal and TAC approved, there is a clear pattern between TAC approved and reported landings. As a consequence, there is a regular lack of enforcement at national fisheries authority level. The paper also presents results of the recovery plans for the Southern hake and the Atlantic cod fisheries as case studies to illustrate the level of enforcement based on collusion between national fisheries advisers and industry. The results from both cases studies analyzed here indicate that drastic solutions could generate positive results for the recovery of the stocks, but perhaps they are not always the best measure in fisheries management due to the high economic losses for fishermen and social effects on coastal communities in the short and medium term. Finally, this work demonstrates that if the recovery plans had been implemented, the net present profits for both fisheries would have increased over time.