Strain and Crystallographic Fabric in Mesoscopic Ductile Shear Zones of Garhwal Himalaya

The MCT Zone of Bhagirathi valley of Garhwal Himalaya is characterized by numerous mesoscopic ductile shear zones. These shear zones are developed in response to nearly NNE-SSW maximum horizontal compression and provide an opportunity to study the variation in strain and crystallographic fabrics within the ductile shear zones.The grain shape and orientation of quartz under microscope reflect that strain is higher in the center and it progressively decreases towards the shear zone boundary. The preferred orientation of quartz c-axes across the shear zone suggests that the single girdle of the quartz c-axes are probably first developed at the shear zone boundary and become prominent in the center of shear zone with increase in the intensity of deformation. The strong crystallographic preferred orientation normal to foliation suggests that the internal deformation of the quartz might have taken place by dislocation creep mechanism exhibiting a non-coaxial deformation history.     

Predictability of Indian Monsoon Circulation with High Resolution ECMWF Model in the Perspective of Tropical Forecast During the Tropical Convection Year 2008

To address some of the issues of project Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) and the project ATHENA as ongoing international activities, an endeavor has been made for the first time to study the predictability of Indian summer monsoon in the backdrop of tropical predictability using 850 hPa atmospheric circulations with the high resolution (T1279) ECMWF model during the boreal summer of 2008 as one of the focus years of YOTC. The major findings obtained from the statistical forecast have been substantiated by the dynamical prediction in terms of the systematic error energy, its growth rate and the attribution of the dominant nonlinear dynamical processes to error growth. The systematic error energy of T1279 (16 km resolution) ECMWF model are generated in African landmass, India and its adjoining oceanic region, in near equatorial west Pacific and around the Madagascar region where the root mean square errors are observed and the zonal wind anomaly shows poor forecast skill. As far as the inadequate predictability of Indian summer monsoon by T1279 ECMWF model (revealed from the results of project ATHENA) is concerned, the systematic error energy and the error growth over Arabian Sea, in the eastern and western India due to the nonlinear convergence and divergence of error flux along with the erroneous Mascarene high may possibly be the determining factors for not showing any discernable improvement in Indian monsoon during the medium range forecast up to 240 h. This work suggests that the higher resolution of ECMWF model may not necessarily lead to the better forecast of Indian monsoon circulations during 2008 unless a methodology can be devised to isolate the errors due to the nonlinear processes that are inherent within the system.     

Potential predictability of wet/dry spells transitions during extreme monsoon years: optimism for dynamical extended range prediction

The duration and extreme fluctuations of prolonged wet or dry spells associated with intraseasonal variability during extreme monsoon have devastating impacts on agrarian-based economy over Indian subcontinent. This study examines the potential predictability limit of intraseasonal transitions between rainy to non-rainy phases (i.e., active to break phases) or vice versa over central Indian region during extreme monsoon using very high-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) daily rainfall datasets. The present study reveals that the transitions from both active to break and break to active conditions are more predictable by ~8 days during the weak monsoon (WM) years compared to the strong monsoon (SM) years. Such asymmetric behavior in the limit of predictability could be linked to the distinct differences in the large-scale seasonal mean background instability during SM and WM years. The achievability of such predictability is further evaluated in a state-of-the-art climate model, the climate forecast system (CFSv2). It is demonstrated that the observed asymmetry in predictability limit could be reproducible in the CFSv2 model, irrespective of its spatial resolution. This study provides impetus for useful dynamical prediction of wet/dry spells at extended range during the extreme monsoon years.     

Possible role of warm SST bias in the simulation of boreal summer monsoon in SINTEX-F2 coupled model

Reasonably realistic climatology of atmospheric and oceanic parameters over the Asian monsoon region is a pre-requisite for models used for monsoon studies. The biases in representing these features lead to problems in representing the strength and variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM). This study attempts to unravel the ability of a state-of-the-art coupled model, SINTEX-F2, in simulating these characteristics of ISM. The coupled model reproduces the precipitation and circulation climatology reasonably well. However, the mean ISM is weaker than observed, as evident from various monsoon indices. A wavenumber–frequency spectrum analysis reveals that the model intraseasonal oscillations are also weaker-than-observed. One possible reason for the weaker-than-observed ISM arises from the warm bias, over the tropical oceans, especially over the equatorial western Indian Ocean, inherent in the model. This warm bias is not only confined to the surface layers, but also extends through most of the troposphere. As a result of this warm bias, the coupled model has too weak meridional tropospheric temperature gradient to drive a realistic monsoon circulation. This in turn leads to a weakening of the moisture gradient as well as the vertical shear of easterlies required for sustained northward propagation of rain band, resulting in weak monsoon circulation. It is also noted that the recently documented interaction between the interannual and intraseasonal variabilities of ISM through very long breaks (VLBs) is poor in the model. This seems to be related to the inability of the model in simulating the eastward propagating Madden–Julian oscillation during VLBs.     

Eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer and Indian monsoon droughts

Improved understanding of underlying mechanism responsible for Indian summer monsoon (ISM) droughts is important due to their profound socio-economic impact over the region. While some droughts are associated with ‘external forcing’ such as the El-Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), many ISM droughts are not related to any known ‘external forcing’. Here, we unravel a fundamental dynamic process responsible for droughts arising not only from external forcing but also those associated with internal dynamics. We show that most ISM droughts are associated with at least one very long break (VLB; breaks with duration of more than 10 days) and that the processes responsible for VLBs may also be the mechanism responsible for ISM droughts. Our analysis also reveals that all extended monsoon breaks (whether co-occurred with El-Niño or not) are associated with an eastward propagating Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Pacific extending to the dateline and westward propagating Rossby waves between 10° and 25°N. The divergent Rossby wave associated with the dry phase of equatorial convection propagates westward towards Indian land, couple with the northward propagating dry phase and leads to the sustenance of breaks. Thus, the propensity of eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer is largely the cause of monsoon droughts. While short breaks are not accompanied by westerly wind events (WWE) over equatorial western Pacific favorable for initiating air–sea interaction, all VLBs are accompanied by sustained WWE. The WWEs associated with all VLB during 1975–2005 initiate air–sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale, extend the warm pool eastward allowing the convectively coupled MJO to propagate further eastward and thereby sustaining the divergent circulation over India and the monsoon break. The ocean–atmosphere coupling on interannual time scale (such as El-Niño) can also produce VLB, but not necessary.     

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations and seasonal Indian monsoon prediction in DEMETER coupled models

Even though multi-model prediction systems may have better skill in predicting the interannual variability (IAV) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM), the overall performance of the system is limited by the skill of individual models (single model ensembles). The DEMETER project aimed at seasonal-to-interannual prediction is not an exception to this case. The reasons for the poor skill of the DEMETER individual models in predicting the IAV of monsoon is examined in the context of the influence of external and internal components and the interaction between intraseasonal variability (ISV) and IAV. Recently it has been shown that the ISV influences the IAV through very long breaks (VLBs; breaks with duration of more than 10 days) by generating droughts. Further, all VLBs are associated with an eastward propagating Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial region, facilitated by air–sea interaction on intraseasonal timescales. This VLB-drought–MJO relationship is analyzed here in detail in the DEMETER models. Analyses indicate that the VLB-drought relationship is poorly captured by almost all the models. VLBs in observations are generated through air–sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale and the models’ inability to simulate VLB-drought relationship is shown to be linked to the models’ inability to represent the air–sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale. Identification of this particular deficiency of the models provides a direction for improvement of the model for monsoon prediction.     

Role of Fe(II) and phosphate in arsenic uptake by coprecipitation

Natural attenuation of arsenic by simple adsorption on oxyhydroxides may be limited due to competing oxyanions, but uptake by coprecipitation may locally sequester arsenic. We have systematically investigated the mechanism and mode (adsorption versus coprecipitation) of arsenic uptake in the presence of carbonate and phosphate, from solutions of inorganic composition similar to many groundwaters. Efficient arsenic removal, >95% As(V) and ∼55% in initial As(III) systems, occurred over 24 h at pHs 5.5-6.5 when Fe(II) and hydroxylapatite (Ca₅(PO₄)₃OH, HAP) “seed” crystals were added to solutions that had been previously reacted with HAP, atmospheric CO_2(g) and O_2(g). Arsenic adsorption was insignificant (<10%) on HAP without Fe(II). Greater uptake in the As(III) system in the presence of Fe(II) was interpreted as due to faster As(III) to As(V) oxidation by molecular oxygen in a putative pathway involving Fe(IV) and As(IV) intermediate species. HAP acts as a pH buffer that allows faster Fe(II) oxidation. Solution analyses coupled with high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM), X-ray Energy-Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS), and X-Ray Absorption Spectroscopy (XAS) indicated the precipitation of sub-spherical particles of an amorphous, chemically-mixed, nanophase, Fe^III[(OH)₃(PO₄)(As^VO₄)]·nH₂O or Fe^III[(OH)₃( PO₄)(As^VO₄)(As^IIIO₃)_minor]·nH₂O, where As^IIIO₃ is a minor component.The mode of As uptake was further investigated in binary coprecipitation (Fe(II) + As(III) or P), and ternary coprecipitation and adsorption experiments (Fe(II) + As(III) + P) at variable As/Fe, P/Fe and As/P/Fe ratios. Foil-like, poorly crystalline, nanoparticles of Fe^III(OH)₃ and sub-spherical, amorphous, chemically-mixed, metastable nanoparticles of Fe^III[(OH)₃, PO₄]·nH₂O coexisted at lower P/Fe ratios than predicted by bulk solubilities of strengite (FePO₄·2H₂O) and goethite (FeOOH). Uptake of As and P in these systems decreased as binary coprecipitation > ternary coprecipitation > ternary adsorption.Significantly, the chemically-mixed, ferric oxyhydroxide-phosphate-arsenate nanophases found here are very similar to those found in the natural environment at slightly acidic to circum-neutral pHs in sub-oxic to oxic systems, such phases may naturally attenuate As mobility in the environment, but it is important to recognize that our system and the natural environment are kinetically evolving, and the ultimate environmental fate of As will depend on the long-term stability and potential phase transformations of these mixed nanophases. Our results also underscore the importance of using sufficiently complex, yet systematically designed, model systems to accurately represent the natural environment.