Systematic errors in the medium range prediction of the Asian summer monsoon circulation

The present study describes an analysis of Asian summer monsoon forecasts with an operational general circulation model (GCM) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.K. An attempt is made to examine the influence of improved treatment of physical processes on the reduction of systematic errors. As some of the major changes in the parameterization of physical processes, such as modification to the infrared radiation scheme, deep cumulus convection scheme, introduction of the shallow convection scheme etc., were introduced during 1985–88, a thorough systematic error analysis of the ECMWF monsoon forecasts is carried out for a period prior to the incorporation of such changes i.e. summer monsoon season (June–August) of 1984, and for the corresponding period after relevant changes were implemented (summer monsoon season of 1988). Monsoon forecasts of the ECMWF demonstrate an increasing trend of forecast skill after the implementation of the major changes in parameterizations of radiation, convection and land-surface processes. Further, the upper level flow is found to be more predictable than that of the lower level and wind forecasts display a better skill than temperature. Apart from this, a notable increase in the magnitudes of persistence error statistics indicates that the monsoon circulation in the analysed fields became more intense with the introduction of changes in the operational forecasting system. Although, considerable reduction in systematic errors of the Asian summer monsoon forecasts is observed (up to day-5) with the introduction of major changes in the treatment of physical processes, the nature of errors remain unchanged (by day-10). The forecast errors of temperature and moisture in the middle troposphere are also reduced due to the changes in treatment of longwave radiation. Moreover, the introduction of shallow convection helped it further by enhancing the vertical transports of heat and moisture from the lower troposphere. Though, the hydrological cycle in the operational forecasts appears to have enhanced with the major modifications and improvements to the physical parameterization schemes, certain regional peculiarities have developed in the simulated rainfall distribution over the monsoon region. Hence, this study suggests further attempts to improve the formulations of physical processes for further reduction of systematic forecast errors.     

Simulation of cyclones using synthetic data

A number of sensitivity experiments have been conducted to investigate the influence of using synthetic data on cyclone forecasts by a global spectral model. Some well known vortices have been used and the generated wind and pressure profiles are compared. It is found that the Rankine vortex and Holland’s vortex show the best representation of cyclonic circulation. Hence these two vortices are used in the sensitivity studies to simulate two cyclones, one of May 1979 and the other of August 1979. For this purpose the FGGE level-III b data set, produced at ECM WF, UK is used. Synthetic temperature and humidity data are also introduced to make the cyclones more realistic. With the use of Holland’s vortex the system is found to move faster than with the Rankine vortex. Also, the tracks of the cyclones simulated with Rankine vortex are found to be on the left side of the observed track while that of Holland’s vortex is on the right side of the observed track. However, substantial filling up of the systems are noticed with introduction of diabatic initialization of the mass and velocity fields and the forecasts of both the vortices behave differently. It is suggested that proper selection of synthetic vortex, initialization scheme and resolution of the model are very important for better forecast of cyclones.     

Possible role of warming on Indian summer monsoon precipitation over the north-central Indian subcontinent

ABSTRACT

Broad disagreement between modelled and observed trends of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) over the north-central part of the Indian subcontinent (NCI) implies a gap in understanding of the relationship between the forcing factors and monsoonal precipitation. Although the strength of the land–sea thermal gradient (LSG) is believed to dictate monsoon intensity, its state and fate under continuous warming over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and part of the NCI (23–28°N, 80–95°E) are less explored. Precipitation (1901–2017) and temperature data (1948–2017) at different vertical heights are used to understand the impact of warming in the ISM. In NCI, surface air temperature increased by 0.1–0.2°C decade^?1, comparable to the global warming rate. The ISM precipitation prominently weakened and seasonality reduced after 1950, which is caused by a decrease in the LSG at the depth of the troposphere. Warming-induced increase in local convection over the BoB further reduced ISM precipitation over NCI.     

Analysis of urban landuse change using sequential aerial photographs and spot data: An example of north Bhubaneswar,Orissa

As urban area undergoes a rapid change it will be necessary to review development and the urban plans once in five years in relation to important public and other decisions taken from time to time. In order to know the trend of development and landuse patterns, analysis of sequential aerial photographs and satellite imagery of different years can be a useful tool for interpretation of various landuses and their comparison, In the present study an attempt has been made to understand the change detection using sequential aerial photographs of 1974 and 1989, and comparison with SPOT data of I988 with the help of ‘USEMAP’ GIS software package.     

Characteristics of certain surface meteorological parameters in relation to the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

With an objective to understand the influence of surface marine meteorological parameters in relation to the extreme monsoon activity over the Indian sub-continent leading to flood/drought, a detailed analysis of the sea level pressure over the Southern Hemisphere and various surface meteorological parameters over the Indian seas is carried out. The present study using the long term data sets (Southern Hemispheric Sea Level Pressure Analysis; Comprehensive Ocean Atmospheric Data Set over the Indian Seas; Surface Station Climatology Data) clearly indicates that the sea surface temperature changes over the south eastern Pacific (El Ninõ/La Niña) have only a moderate impact (not exceeding 50% reliability) on the Indian summer monsoon activity. On the other hand, the sea level pressure anomaly (SOI) over Australia and the south Pacific has a reasonably high degree of significance (more than 70%) with the monsoon activity over India. However, these two parameters (SLP and SST) do not show any significant variability over the Indian seas in relation to the summer monsoon activity. Over the Indian seas, the parameters which are mainly associated with the convective activity such as cloud cover, relative humidity and the surface wind were found to have a strong association with the extreme monsoon activity (flood/drought) and thus the net oceanic heat loss over the Indian seas provides a strong positive feed-back for the monsoon activity over India.     

Hydrated cluster ion formation rates and winter anomaly

Expressions for the effective cluster formation rates are written in terms of neutral densities and recent laboratory data on reaction rate coefficients. At D-region heights these parameters show seasonal variations due to mesospheric temperature changes. Reduction in cluster formation rates for winter months would result in a decrease in the concentration of hydrated ions and hence reduced effective recombination coefficient for electrons. The results show latitude and seasonal variations which are similar to that of a normal winter anomaly in radio wave absorption.     

Superconducting gravimeter observations without a tilt compensation system

This paper examines the possibility of using superconducting gravimeter (SG) observations without a tilt compensation system. SG data obtained at Syowa Station, Antarctica, were recorded without tilt compensation from April 5, 2001 to January 4, 2002, however, tilt signals were registered during this time period. A tilt correction was applied to gravity data from August 2, 2001 to January 4, 2002. After the tilt correction, errors of tidal parameters were dramatically reduced and tidal parameters themselves almost coincide with those from the same length of tilt-controlled gravity data recorded in 2000, when tilt compensation system was used. The noise level of the thermal leveler in the seismic band was also investigated. Averaged power spectra of gravity from 15 quiet days each in 2000 and 2001 recorded with and without the tilt compensation system, respectively, were compared. ‘Quiet’ in this case, means very low earthquake activity and calm wind conditions. No significant difference in the seismic band, except at the frequency of 2 mHz, was noticed. The difference at 2 mHz occurred because of room temperature variations caused by the water cooler, which cools down a compressor by automatically switching on and off.     

Mapping the liquefaction induced soil moisture changes using remote sensing technique: an attempt to map the earthquake induced liquefaction around Bhuj, Gujarat, India

The Bhuj earthquake (Mw = 7.9) occurred in the western part of India on 26th January 2001 and resulted in the loss of 20,000 lives and caused extensive damage to property. Soil liquefaction related ground failures such as lateral spreading caused significant damage to bridges, dams and other civil engineering structures in entire Kachchh peninsula. The Bhuj area is a part of large sedimentary basin filled with Jurassic, Tertiary and Quaternary deposits. This work pertains to mapping the areas that showed sudden increase in soil moisture after the seismic event, using remote sensing technique. Multi-spectral, spatial and temporal data sets from Indian Remote Sensing Satellite are used to derive the Liquefaction Sensitivity Index (LSeI). The basic concept behind LSeI is that the near infrared and shortwave infrared regions of electromagnetic spectrum are highly absorbed by soil moisture. Thus, the LSeI is herein used to identify the areas with increase in soil moisture after the seismic event. The LSeI map of Bhuj is then correlated with field-based observation on Cyclic Stress Ratio (CSR) and Cyclic Resistance Ratio (CRR), depth to water table, soil density and Liquefaction Severity Index (LSI). The derived LSeI values are in agreement with liquefaction susceptible criteria and observed LSI (R ² = 0.97). The results of the study indicate that the LSeI after calibration with LSI can be used as a quick tool to map the liquefied areas. On the basis of LSeI, LSI, CRR, CSR and saturation, the unconsolidated sediments of the Bhuj area are classified into three susceptibility classes.     

Tidal triggering of earthquakes in the subducting Philippine Sea plate beneath the locked zone of the plate interface in the Tokai region, Japan

We found a characteristic space–time pattern of the tidal triggering effect on earthquake occurrence in the subducting Philippine Sea plate beneath the locked zone of the plate interface in the Tokai region, central Japan, where a large interplate earthquake may be impending. We measured the correlation between the Earth tide and earthquake occurrence using microearthquakes that took place in the Philippine Sea plate for about two decades. For each event, we assigned the tidal phase angle at the origin time by theoretically calculating the tidal shear stress on the fault plane. Based on the distribution of the tidal phase angles, we statistically tested whether they concentrate near some particular angle or not by using Schuster's test. In this test, the result is evaluated by p-value, which represents the significance level to reject the null hypothesis that earthquakes occur randomly irrespective of the tidal phase angle. As a result of analysis, no correlation was found for the data set including all the earthquakes. However, we found a systematic pattern in the temporal variation of the tidal effect; the p-value significantly decreased preceding the occurrence of M ≥ 4.5 earthquakes, and it recovered a high level afterwards. We note that those M ≥ 4.5 earthquakes were considerably larger than the normal background seismicity in the study area. The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak at the phase angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This indicates that the observed small p-value is a physical consequence of the tidal effect. We also found a distinctive feature in the spatial distribution of p-values. The small p-values appeared just beneath the strongly coupled portion of the plate interface, as inferred from the seismicity rate change in the past few years.     

Fracture Toughness Measurements and Acoustic Emission Activity in Brittle Rocks

Fracture toughness measurements under static loading conditions have been carried out in Barre and Lac du Bonnet granites. An advanced AE technique has been adopted to monitor real-time crack initiation and propagation around the principal crack in these tests to understand the processes of brittle failure under tension and related characteristics of the resulting fracture process zone. The anisotropy of Mode I fracture toughness has been investigated along specific directions. Microcrack density and orientation analysis from thin section studies have shown these characteristics to be the primary cause of the observed variation in fracture toughness, which is seen to vary between 1.14 MPa.(m)^1/2 and 1.89 MPa.(m)^1/2 in Barre granite. The latter value represents the case in which the crack is propagated at right angles to the main set of microcracks. The creation of a significant fracture process zone surrounding the propagating main crack has been confirmed. Real-time imaging of the fracture process and formation of fracture process zone by AE techniques yielded results in very good agreement with those obtained by direct optical analysis.