利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecast)模式及WRFDA(WRF model data assimilation system)系统,针对2017年台风“天鸽”个例通过同化雷达径向速度(Vr)和反射率因子(RF),研究水凝物控制变量的雷达资料同化对台风分析预报的影响。研究表明：雷达径向速度的直接同化有效地改进了模式初始场中台风涡旋区的中小尺度信息,分析场中产生了气旋性的风场增量,对模式背景场中的台风有显著增强作用。通过在传统控制变量中扩展针对水凝物的控制变量可有效地同化雷达反射率因子资料,对初始场的水物质进行调整,并对随后确定性预报的台风路径和强度都有一定的正效果。此外,相比没有水凝物控制变量的雷达同化试验,加入了水凝物控制变量的雷达资料同化试验降水预报效果更好。这为将我国近海的地基多普勒天气雷达用于台风初始化分析和预报提供了一定的技术支撑和保障。 相似文献
A large proportion of the rural labor force in China will continue to transfer to non-agricultural sectors in the near future, which will inevitably lead to the transformation of the agricultural production mode and the structure of the farmers’ livelihood. The Chinese government is making great efforts to govern agricultural nonpoint source pollution (ANSP), and farmers' environmental behavior is a key factor that must be considered in the formulation of agricultural environmental policies. Based on a set of micro survey data on farmers in the study area and econometric methods, this study investigates the impact of agricultural labor transfer on ANSP by considering the substitution effect of agricultural factors and the effect of agricultural economies of scale. The results show that the increase of the agricultural labor force will not be conducive to reducing ANSP, while the income increase brought by agricultural labor transfer will improve the input structure of agricultural factors and have a positive impact on ANSP reduction. Government departments should provide subsidies or incentive measures to help agricultural social service organizations to expand their coverage and increase the frequency of socialized agricultural services, in order to guide farmers in the use of environment-friendly agricultural technology to reduce the ANSP caused by agricultural factors at the source. Furthermore, it is necessary to facilitate the development of small-sized agricultural machinery suitable for small-area land cultivation. 相似文献
An active region loop system was observed in a decaying active region for three hours by TRACE and BBSO in a joint campaign on September 27, 1998. Continuous mass motion was seen in Hα offband filtergrams throughout the three hours, and some UV loops were exhibited transient brightenings. We find that: (1) cool material was flowing along the loops at a speed of at least 20 km s?1. Further, in Hα red and blue wings, we see mass motion along different loops in opposite directions. This is the first report of a counter-streaming pattern of mass motion in an Hα loop system. (2) Transient brightenings of different UV loops at different times were observed at C?iv 1550 Å. These brightened UV loops were located in the same region and at the same altitudes as the Hα loops. The observations show a clear correlation between the transient brightenings of UV loops and mass motion in Hα loops. (3) Both footpoints of the loop system were located in regions of mixed magnetic polarities. Frequent micro-flares at one footpoint of the loops with small-scale brightenings spreading along the loop leg were observed before the brightening and rising of one C?iv loop. Similar to the case of a filament, the continuous mass motion along the loops seems important for maintaining the cool Hα loop system at coronal height. There may be an indication that the mass motion in cool Hα loops and the correlated transient brightening of the active region loops were due to the small-scale chromospheric magnetic reconnection at the footpoint regions of the loop system.
