SWAN系统在一次暴雨天气过程分析中的应用

对2011年7月25-26日镇江市暴雨天气过程的天气背景、稳定指数和垂直风切变进行分析,利用SWAN系统研究CAPPI回波和液态水含量的相关演变特征,并检验SWAN系统下TITAN风暴识别和追踪技术的精度和水平,得出结论:7月25-26日镇江市暴雨天气过程有着较好的动力、水汽、层结不稳定以及垂直风切变条件,构成了产生大风暴雨天气的有利环境场.两个降水集中时段风暴特征有所不同,第1阶段为飑线影响,第2阶段为风暴群影响,二者均包含了普通单体和强降水超级单体,此两种单体均具有中心强度大、回波顶高度高的特征.液态水含量的演变与风暴强度吻合较好.TITAN系统对风暴未来1h内位置和轮廓预报没有30 min内预报精确度高,对处在发展、成熟阶段的风暴,30 min跟踪和预报与实况接近,对处在减弱阶段的风暴,较实况则略有滞后.     

基于演化博弈的中国橡胶主产区目标价格补贴政策及其敏感性研究——以西双版纳为例

当前,橡胶收入不足于吸引农户继续种植橡胶,为保障国家橡胶战略安全,利用演化博弈模型分析了目标价格补贴政策的有效性边界,并对影响目标价格补贴政策的因素进行了敏感性分析。结果发现,依据2019年西双版纳18个样本村的947个截面数据及地区统计公报等测算得出,在橡胶价格为8元/kg时,应将目标补贴价格定位为12.8元/kg;橡胶树单产为影响目标价格补贴额度变量中敏感系数最大的因素;在当前其他因素不变的情况下,橡胶树单产提升10%可使目标补贴价格额度下降25%。建议采取积极稳健的财政补贴政策,利用浮动的目标价格补贴稳定橡胶产区的农户预期,同时辅以橡胶价格保险等配套政策激励农户提高橡胶树单产,在达到政策目标的同时降低财政成本。     

A Megatheropod Tooth from the Early Cretaceous of Fusui,Guangxi, Southern China

A nearly complete right maxillary or left dentary tooth（NHMG 10858） from the Lower Cretaceous Xinlong Formation of the Napai Basin, Fusui County, Guangxi, southern China, is described. The tooth is large in size, with a CBL of 37 mm. Given the geological age and its crown morphology, including the size, it is most likely that the tooth belongs to a carcharodontosaurid. The recovered specimen represents one of the largest theropod teeth hitherto reported from the Early Cretaceous of Asia.     

YZX108型液动潜孔锤的研制与试验

采用理论计算、三维模拟、室内调试和野外试验相结合的方法成功研制出了YZX108型液动锤,完善了YZX液动锤的口径系列。通过室内调试确定了该液动锤的工作参数及特性。生产试验证实,该液动锤具有结构简单、工作稳定、适应性广、冲击功大等诸多优点,可在常规金刚石回转钻进困难的燧石灰岩等硬岩地层应用并取得较理想的效果。     

准噶尔盆地西北缘二叠系碎屑岩次生孔隙发育控制因素

二叠系碎屑岩储集层是准噶尔盆地西北缘地区重要的勘探层位,埋藏深度大,研究其次生孔隙分布及其控制因素是研究区储集层研究的一项难点。利用岩芯、铸体薄片、荧光薄片、扫描电镜、黏土矿物等资料,结合沉积相、构造演化及有机质演化特征,对二叠系碎屑岩次生孔隙发育控制因素进行了研究。研究结果表明:二叠系碎屑岩除发育原生粒间孔外,还发育颗粒溶孔、胶结物溶孔及裂缝等次生孔隙。颗粒溶孔、碳酸盐及沸石胶结物溶孔主要受烃源岩热演化产生的有机酸及大气淡水无机酸作用的范围、规模控制。无机酸成因的溶孔主要发育于不整合面和断裂发育的盆地边缘区域,有机酸成因的次生孔主要发育于紧临烃源岩的盆地中部区域;裂缝主要是在构造挤压应力作用下产生,受构造应力大小、岩性粒级及杂基含量控制,主要分布于西北缘逆冲断裂带内低杂基含量的砂砾岩中。平面分布上,西北缘二叠系碎屑岩储集空间类型在盆地边缘以原生粒间孔为主、其次为无机酸成因的溶蚀孔及裂缝;向盆地中部过渡为有机成因的溶孔为主,原生粒间孔次之的储集空间组合。结合研究区沉积相展布、胶结物分布、构造特征及有机质演化特征,指出盆地中部的扇三角洲前缘区带,浊沸石胶结物发育,靠近烃源岩,处于三期有机酸运移的上倾方向,是有利的浊沸石溶蚀孔隙发育区带。     

Comprehensive evaluation of the potential risk from cyanobacteria blooms in Poyang Lake based on nutrient zoning

The potential risk from cyanobacteria blooms is the basis for predicting, preventing, and managing eutrophication. Poyang Lake lies on the southern bank of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. This lake is a large shallow lake connected to the Yangtze River and is affected by monsoon. The comprehensive evaluation index system, evaluation model, and method of the potential risk from cyanobacteria blooms were constructed based on the nutrient zoning in Poyang Lake, and the potential risk from cyanobacteria blooms was evaluated in 2013. (1) The evaluation index system comprises physical, chemical, and biological indicators. The physical indicators consist of blocking degree, lake region location, transparency (Secchi disk depth, SD), and temperature; the chemical indicators consist of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP); and the biological indicators consist of chlorophyll a (Chla) and phytoplankton biomass. Among the indicators, blocking degree and lake region location along with the prevailing wind direction were selected to represent the indicators affected by water retention time and wind direction. (2) We established a comprehensive evaluation method for assessing the potential risk from cyanobacteria blooms by adopting both analytic hierarchy process weighting and a comprehensive evaluation method. (3) Results show that the high-risk periods for cyanobacteria blooms were August, July, and December, and the high-risk regions were in the Northeastern Lake Region, Western Lake Region and Northern Lake Region. The Northeastern Lake Region is particularly in high risk in August and July. These cyanobacteria blooms presented heavy risk or close to heavy risk. Based on the risk evaluation indicators, outbreaks of cyanobacteria blooms are limited by temperature and location. Chla and phytoplankton biomass were the key indices affecting the level of potential risk from cyanobacteria blooms during the high-water-level period (July and August). In contrast, TN and TP are the key indices affecting the level of harm during the low-water-level period. Within a year, Chla, phytoplankton biomass, and TP are key indicators for the prediction of cyanobacteria blooms in Poyang Lake.