Fuzzy neural network models for liquefaction prediction

Integrated fuzzy neural network models are developed for the assessment of liquefaction potential of a site. The models are trained with large databases of liquefaction case histories. A two-stage training algorithm is used to develop a fuzzy neural network model. In the preliminary training stage, the training case histories are used to determine initial network parameters. In the final training stage, the training case histories are processed one by one to develop membership functions for the network parameters. During the testing phase, input variables are described in linguistic terms such as ‘high’ and ‘low’. The prediction is made in terms of a liquefaction index representing the degree of liquefaction described in fuzzy terms such as ‘highly likely’, ‘likely’, or ‘unlikely’. The results from the model are compared with actual field observations and misclassified cases are identified. The models are found to have good predictive ability and are expected to be very useful for a preliminary evaluation of liquefaction potential of a site for which the input parameters are not well defined.     

Relationships between tissue concentrations of chlorinated hydrocarbons (polychlorinated biphenyls and chlorinated pesticides) and antioxidative responses of marine mussels, Perna viridis

Marine mussels, Perna viridis, were transplanted from a reference site to various polluted sites around Hong Kong. After 30 d of exposure, antioxidative responses in the gills and hepatopancreas and tissue concentrations of chlorinated hydrocarbons [polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and chlorinated pesticides (CPs)] were determined for individual mussels. Glutathione S transferase (GST) and glutathione (GSH) were positively correlated with tissue PCB concentrations. Only one of the enzymatic antioxidants, glutathione peroxidase (GPx), showed significant response to tissue PCB. No significant correlation was found between tissue concentrations of chlorinated hydrocarbons and other enzymatic antioxidants (superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), glutathione reductase (GR) and NADPH DT-diaphorase (DT-d). Oxidative stress, measured as thiobarbituric acid reactive substances, was correlated with chlorinated pesticide concentrations in tissues. This study demonstrated a correlation between GST/GSH and chlorinated hydrocarbons. The apparent lack of correlation between trace organic pollutants and some of the enzymatic antioxidants may be due to the inhibitory effects caused by these chemicals. The above results suggest that more investigations are needed before these enzymes can be used as biomarkers.     

Mathematical modeling of PCB bioaccumulation in Perna viridis

In the present work, we built a mathematical model of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) bioaccumulation in Perna viridis, namely, a one-compartment model with a time dependent incorporation rate R (μg g⁻¹ lipid per ppb water per day), with positive substrate cooperativity as the underlying physical mechanism. The temporal change of the PCB concentration Q (μg g⁻¹ lipid) in the soft tissues of the mussel depends on the competition of the input rate RW and the output rate kQ, where W is the concentration of PCB in water (ppb water) and k is the elimination rate (per day). From our experimental data, k=0.181±0.017 d⁻¹. The critical concentration in water W_c for positive substrate cooperativity was found to be 2.4 ppb. Below W_c, R is a constant. For a water concentration of 0.5 ppb Aroclor 1254, R=24.0±2.4 μg g⁻¹ lipid ppb⁻¹ d⁻¹. Above W_c, positive substrate cooperativity comes into effect and R becomes a function of time and dependent on the concentration Q in a form R=γQ/(Q+δ). This is the case for a water concentration of 5 ppb Aroclor 1254, where γ=15.1 μg g⁻¹ lipid ppb⁻¹ d¹ and δ≈200 μg g⁻¹ lipid. From this model, the uptake is exponentially increasing when the PCB concentration in the mussel is small compared to 200 μg g⁻¹ lipid, and hyperbolically increasing when the concentration is large compared to 200 μg g⁻¹ lipid, which are consistent with the experimental data. The model is useful for understanding the true processes taking place during the bioaccumulation and for risk assessment with higher confidence. Future experimental data which challenge the present model are anticipated and in fact desirable for improvement and perfection of the model.     

Fractal properties of medium and seismoelectric phenomena

Electrokinetic phenomena in a water-porous medium with a fractal structure above percolation threshold are theoretically investigated. Fracture zone with space-variable porosity is considered as a model of an earthquake hypocenter zone in which the electrokinetic current results from fluid filtration in a fractal pore network. A critical exponent of the streaming potential coefficient is found to depend on both the transport critical exponent and correlation length critical exponent. In this model, logarithmic dependence of electric field amplitude E on the earthquake magnitude M is derived which is compatible with the one observed by the VAN group. Without fractal properties, this form of dependence contradicts the empirical data. The electromagnetic field far from the hypocenter is calculated, which leads to the prediction of weak magnetic field variations. To explain the observed amplitude of VAN's Seismic Electric Signals (SES), the electric source must be at a distance of about 10 km from the registration point if the medium is homogeneous. Therefore, some conductive channel(s) are needed to explain the long distance selective SES transmission.     

The French Guyana doleritic dykes: geochemical evidence of three populations and new data for the Jurassic Central Atlantic Magmatic Province

A petrographic and geochemical study of 15 Early Jurassic and 7 Proterozoic dolerites of French Guyana, and of one Jurassic dolerite from Ivory-Coast were carried out. The Early Jurassic SSW-NNE trending dykes have doleritic aphyric or gabbroic phyric texture. Their chemical compositions, slightly under-saturated to over-saturated, show moderate to low Mg-ratios (63–36), high TiO₂ contents (1.85–3.56 wt.%), weak rare earth element fractionation [1.8<(La/Yb)_n <4.6], negative Sr-anomalies (0.41<Sr* <0.91) and positive TiO₂-anomalies (1.2<TiO₂*<2.15). They correspond to sub-alkaline high-Ti basalts (HTiB). The La/Nb ratio (1.18±0.23) is close to that of the OIB-type Deccan basalts and incompatible element ratios: Rb/Nb_n (1.07±0.3), Zr/Y (4.6±0.8) are intermediate between those of HTiB in Deccan and those of HTiB in Paraná. These geochemical signatures and recent isotopic data of Bertrand et al. [Bertrand, H., Liegeois, J.P., Deckart, K., Féraud, G., 1999. High-Ti tholeiites in Guinea and Their Connection with the Central Atlantic CFB Province: Elemental and Nd-Sr-Pb Isotopic Evidence for Preferential Zone of Mantle Upwelling in Cause of Rifting. AGU spring meeting (Abst. p 317)] suggest that their magmatic source is different from that of the other basalts of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP). Such signatures are restricted to a central zone coinciding with the Panafrican Rokelides suture. We propose a model of sub-lithospheric preferential channelling of an asthenospheric ascent in this zone. Two other groups of dykes were identified in French Guyana. Compared to the Jurassic ones the Proterozoic dykes have NNW-SSE and E-W trending direction, more important LILE enrichment, low TiO₂ contents (<2 wt%) and Nb–Ta negative anomalies. Their calc-alkaline signature could be the result of a previous subduction and may be related to the 1800 Ma Venturi-Tapajós event, which contaminated the mantle source.     

African monsoon variability during the previous interglacial maximum

Little is known about centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability during interglacial times, other than the Holocene. We here present high-resolution evidence from anoxic (unbioturbated) sediments in the eastern Mediterranean Sea that demonstrates a sustained ∼800-yr climate disturbance in the monsoonal latitudes during the Eemian interglacial maximum (∼125 ka BP). Results imply that before and after this event, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) penetrated sufficiently beyond the central Saharan watershed (∼21°N) during the summer monsoon to fuel flooding into the Mediterranean along the wider North African margin, through fossil river/wadi systems that to date have been considered only within a Holocene context. Relaxation in the ITCZ penetration during the intra-Eemian event curtailed this flux, but flow from the Nile - with its vast catchment area - was not affected. Previous work suggests a concomitant Eurasian cooling event, with intensified impact of the higher-latitude climate on the Mediterranean basin. The combined signals are very similar to those described for the Holocene cooling event around 8 ka BP. The apparent type of concurrent changes in the monsoon and higher-latitude climate may reflect a fundamental mechanism for variability in the transfer of energy (latent heat) between the tropics and higher latitudes.     

Production of selected cosmogenic radionuclides by muons: 2. Capture of negative muons

We have determined the production yields for radionuclides in Al₂O₃, SiO₂, S, Ar, K₂SO₄, CaCO₃, Fe, Ni and Cu targets, which were irradiated with slow negative muons at the Paul Scherrer Institute in Villigen (Switzerland). The fluences of the stopped negative muons were determined by measuring the muonic X-rays. The concentrations of the long-lived and short-lived radionuclides were measured with accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) and γ-spectroscopy, respectively. Special emphasis was put on the radionuclides ¹⁰Be, ¹⁴C and ²⁶Al produced in quartz targets, ²⁶Al in Al₂O₃ and S targets, ³⁶Cl in K₂SO₄ and CaCO₃ targets, and ⁵³Mn in Fe₂O₃ targets. These targets were selected because they are also the naturally occurring target minerals for cosmic ray interactions in typical rocks. We also present results of calculations for depth-dependent production rates of radionuclides produced after cosmic ray μ⁻ capture, as well as cosmic ray-induced production rates of geologically relevant radionuclides produced by the nucleonic component, by μ⁻ capture, by fast muons and by neutron capture.     

Stable isotope values of Costa Rican surface waters

Stable isotope data of surface waters from the humid tropics in general, and Costa Rica in particular, are scarce. To improve our understanding of the spatial distribution of stable isotopes in surface waters, we measured δ¹⁸O and δD in river and lake (n=63) and precipitation (n=3) samples from Costa Rica. We also present data from the IAEA/WMO isotopes in precipitation network as context for our study. Surface water isotope values do not strongly correlate with elevation, stream head elevation, stream length, distance from Caribbean Sea, or estimated mean annual precipitation for the country as a whole. However, the data show distinct regional trends. The δ¹⁸O and δD values downwind of mountain ranges are inversely related to the altitude of the ranges the air masses traverse. In the lee of the high Talamanca Range, δ¹⁸O values are 6–8‰ lower, while in the lee of the lower Tilarán Range δ¹⁸O values are 2–3‰ lower than upwind sites along the Caribbean Slope. An altitude effect of −1.4‰ δ¹⁸O/km is present on the Pacific slope of southern Costa Rica, equivalent to a temperature effect of −0.3‰/°C. The Nicoya and Osa Peninsulas have higher values than upwind sites, suggesting input of Pacific-sourced moisture, evaporative enrichment, or decreased condensation temperatures. Elevated and increasing d-excess values inland along the Nicaragua Trough suggest a recycled component may be an important contributor to the water budget. These data provide preliminary stable isotope information for Costa Rica, and will benefit paleoclimatic research in the region. More detailed studies would be beneficial to our understanding of the controls on stable isotope composition of tropical waters.     

Screening model for volatile pollutants in dual porosity soils

This paper develops mass fraction models for transport and fate of agricultural pollutants in structured two-region soils. Mass fraction index models, based on a semi-infinite domain solution, are derived that describe leaching at depth, vapor losses through soil surface, absorption, and degradation in the dynamic- and stagnant-water soil regions. The models predict that leaching is the result of the combined effect of the upward vapor-phase transport relative to downward advection, residence time relative to half-life, dispersion, and lateral diffusive mass transfer. Simulations show that leached fraction of volatile compounds does not always decrease monotonically with increased residence time relative to the pollutant half-life, as a result of complex interactions among the different physical and biochemical processes. The results show that leaching, volatilization, and degradation losses can be affected significantly by lateral diffusive mass transfer into immobile-water regions and advection relative to dispersion (i.e. Peclet number) in the mobile-water regions. It is shown that solute diffusion into the immobile phase and subsequent biochemical decay reduces leaching and vapor losses through soil surface. Potential use of the modified leaching index for the screening of selected pesticides is illustrated for different soil textures and infiltration rates. The analysis may be useful to the management of pesticides and the design of landfills.