大地形变监测预报在中国西部防震减灾事业中的基础作用

本文以巩固和发挥大地形变地震监测预报基础地位和作用、积极推进中国西部防震减灾事业可持续性和协调性发展为主旨,回顾了西部地区20世纪70年代初至“九五”前期大地形变监测与地震预测研究工作基础,介绍了“九五”后期至今大地形变监测与地震预测研究的主要进展,并对该领域发展中所面临的一些问题进行了初步探讨。     

山西临汾盆地及邻区地震时空分布特征初探

临汾盆地是山西断陷带中地壳结构最复杂、地震活动最强烈的地区.有史料记载以来,发生过M≥4 3/4地震16次,其中8级地震1次,7 3/4级地震1次,6 3/4级与6 1/2级地震各1次,5级～5 1/2级地震11次,4 3/4 级地震1次.     

Spatial character of the gaseous and particulate state compound correlation of urban atmospheric pollution in winter and summer

The spatial/temporal variation information of atmospheric dynamic-chemical processes at observation site points of the "canopy" boundary of Beijing urban building ensemble and over urban area "surface", as well as the seasonal correlation structure of the gaseous and particulate states of urban atmospheric pollution (UAP) and its seasonal conversion feature at observation points are investigated, using the comprehensive observation data of the Beijing City Air Pollution Observation Experiment (BECAPEX) in winter and summer 2003 with a "point-surface" combined research approach. By using "one dimension spatial empirical orthogonal function (EOF)" principal component analysis (PCA) mode, the seasonal change of gaseous and particulate states of atmospheric aerosols and the association feature of pollutant species under the background of the complicated structure of urban boundary layer (UBL) are analyzed. The comprehensive analyses of the principal components of particle concentrations,gaseous pollutant species, and meteorological conditions reveal the seasonal changes of the complex constituent and structure features of the gaseous and particulate states of UAP to further trace the impact feature of urban aerosol pollution surface sources and the seasonal difference of the component structure of UAP. Research results suggest that in the temporal evolution of the gaseous and particulate states of winter/summer UAP, NOx, CO, and SO2 showed an "in-phase" evolution feature, however, O3 showed an "inverse-phase" relation with other species,all possessing distinctive dependent feature. On the whole, summer concentrations of gaseous pollutants CO, SO2, and NOx were obviously lower than winter ones, especially, the reduction in CO concentration was most distinctive, and ones in SO2 and NOx were next. However, the summer O3 concentration was more than twice winter one. Winter/summer differences in PM10and PM2.5 particle concentrations were relatively not obvious, which indicates that responses of PM10 and PM2.5 particle concentrations to the difference of winter/summer heating period emission sources are far less distinctive than those of NOx, SO2, and CO. The correlation feature of winter/summer gaseous and particulate states depicts that both PM10 and PM2.5 particles were significantly correlated with NOx, and their correlations with NOx are more significant than those with other pollutants. Through PCA, it is found that there was a distinctive difference in the principal component combination structure of winter/summer PM10 and PM2.5 particles: SO2 and NOx dominated in the principal component of winter PM10 and PM2.5 particles; while CO and NOx played the major role in the principal component of summer PM10 and PM2.5 particles. For winter/summer PM10 and PM2.5 particles, there might exist the gaseous and particulate states correlation structures of different "combinations" of such dependent pollutant species. Research results also uncover that the interaction processes of gaseous and particulate states were also related with the vertical structure of UBL, that is to say, the low value layer of UBL O3 concentration was associated with the collocation of atmospheric vertical structures of the low level inversion,inverse humidity, and small wind, which depicts summer boundary layer atmospheric character, i.e.the compound impact of the dependent factor "combination" of wind, temperature, and humidity elements and their collocation structure on the variations of different gaseous pollutant concentrations. Such a depth structure of the extremely low value of O3 concentration in the UBL accords with its "inverse-phase" relation with other gaseous pollutant species. The PCA of meteorological factors associated with PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations also reveals the sensitivity of PM10 and PM2.5 concentration to the combinatory feature of local meteorological conditions.     

Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

森林沼泽景观区中大比例尺化探找矿工作方法的研究--记大梁金矿的发现

大梁金矿是通过森林沼泽景观区开展1：50000和1：25000地球化学测量及综合地质工作而发现的,证明采用的森林沼泽景观中大比例尺化探方法是行之有效的.     

Numerical Modeling of Basin-Range Tectonics Related to Continent-Continent Collision

Continent-continent collision is the most important driving mechanism for the occurrence of various geological processes in the continental lithosphere. How to recognize and determine continent-continent collision,especially its four-dimensional temporal-spatial evolution, is a subject that geological communities have long been concerned about and studied. Continent-continent collision is mainly manifested by strong underthrnsting (subduction) of the underlying block along an intracontinental subduction zone and continuous obduction (thrusting propagation) of the overlying block along the intracontinental subduction zone, the occurrence of a basin-range tectonic framework in a direction perpendicular to the subduction zone and the flexure and disruption of the Moho. On the basis of numerical modeling, the authors discuss in detail the couplings between various amounts and rates of displacement caused by basin subsidence, mountain uplift and Moho updoming and downflexure during obduction (thrusting propagation) and subduction and the migration pattern of basin centers. They are probably indications or criteria for judgment or determination of continent-continent collision.     

利用主成分分析法提取绿洲水体专题信息的研究

水资源对于以荒漠为背景的绿洲具有极其重要的作用,及时掌握绿洲水体的动态变化定量信息,对于合理调控绿洲区域生态环境,可持续发展区域经济活动具有重要意义。针对塔里木盆地南部特有的极端干旱地区,选择策勒绿洲为重点研究靶区,采用主成分分析方法,提取1990和1998年两幅卫星图像中水体专题信息。与以往方法相比,该方法不仅可有效避免常规分类法中存在的误差累积,结果出现较多伪变化信息的缺陷;亦可减小辐射差异对光谱比较法的极大限制,从而直接获得水体变化信息,实现过程简单、清楚,可操作性强。     

日照国家级海洋公园生态产品价值实现机制研究

日照国家级海洋公园是目前全国面积最大、景观元素最为丰富、旅游设施最为完备的国家级海洋公园。文章通过分析日照海洋公园的生态产品价值实现现状的意义,并发现其中存在的问题,同时给予相应的建议,希望对日照海洋公园未来的发展提供较大的借鉴和参考。     

中国主要红树林表层沉积物中重金属的分布特征及其影响因素

红树林生态系统处于海洋与陆地的动态交界面,遭受海水周期性浸淹,因而在结构与功能上具有既不同于陆地生态系统,也不同于海洋生态系统的特性。红树林作为初级生产者,为林区动物、微生物提供食物与营养,为鸟类、昆虫、鱼虾等提供栖息、繁衍场所。因此,红树植物对维护生态平衡、保护海岸生态系统起着重要的作用[1-2]。近年来由于工农业的发展,沿海城市人口与经济的增长,大量的污染物汇集于河口、海湾区,使这些地区的重金属污染日趋严重,特别是在直接向红树林区倾污排废的地区更是如此。     

GPS制导技术浅析及对抗策略

GPS导航技术应用于武器精确制导,大大提高了武器的制导能力和打击精度。卫星制导武器已逐渐成为战争的主要打击兵器,推动着作战样式的新发展。通过对GPS／INS（惯性导航）组合制导技术进行分析,针对弱点提出了干扰对策。