Relationships between the Limit of Predictability and Initial Error in the Uncoupled and Coupled Lorenz Models

In this study, the relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error was investigated using two simple chaotic systems:the Lorenz model, which possesses a single characteristic time scale, and the coupled Lorenz model, which possesses two different characteristic time scales. The limit of predictability is defined here as the time at which the error reaches 95% of its saturation level; nonlinear behaviors of the error growth are therefore involved in the definition of the limit of predictability. Our results show that the logarithmic function performs well in describing the relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error in both models, although the coefficients in the logarithmic function were not constant across the examined range of initial errors. Compared with the Lorenz model, in the coupled Lorenz model-in which the slow dynamics and the fast dynamics interact with each other-there is a more complex relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error. The limit of predictability of the Lorenz model is unbounded as the initial error becomes infinitesimally small; therefore, the limit of predictability of the Lorenz model may be extended by reducing the amplitude of the initial error. In contrast, if there exists a fixed initial error in the fast dynamics of the coupled Lorenz model, the slow dynamics has an intrinsic finite limit of predictability that cannot be extended by reducing the amplitude of the initial error in the slow dynamics, and vice versa. The findings reported here reveal the possible existence of an intrinsic finite limit of predictability in a coupled system that possesses many scales of time or motion.     

冈底斯东段加查县丝波绒曲早侏罗- 始新世复式岩体成因及其对构造演化的启示

本文选取冈底斯带东段加查县东北部丝波绒曲复式岩体为对象,对其进行了岩相学、地质年代学、岩石地球化学以及Sr-Nd-Hf同位素组成的综合研究,据此探讨了该复式岩体的成因及其对构造演化的启示。研究结果表明,该复式岩体由早侏罗世辉长岩-花岗岩杂岩(188～185Ma)和始新世花岗质岩石(～47Ma)构成,两期花岗质岩石中普遍发育塑变形态的镁铁质包体。早侏罗世杂岩由角闪辉长岩和英云闪长岩组成,角闪辉长岩中的主要铁镁矿物为角闪石,它们为一套钙碱性弧岩浆岩组合,具有亏损的Sr-Nd-Hf同位素组成。始新世花岗质岩石主要为二长花岗岩-花岗闪长岩,它们较早侏罗世英云闪长岩更为富碱,属钙碱性-高钾钙碱性I型花岗岩,其同位素组成也较早侏罗世英云闪长岩富集。综合分析表明,该区早侏罗世复合辉长岩-花岗岩的形成受控于新特提斯洋板片北向俯冲的构造背景,角闪辉长岩起源于受俯冲板片脱水交代的上覆地幔楔的部分熔融,共生的英云闪长岩则为同期幔源岩浆底侵诱发初生地壳部分熔融产生的长英质岩浆与幔源岩浆不同程度混合的产物。始新世花岗岩的形成受控于新特提斯洋板片断离的构造背景,是由具"弧"型地球化学特征的初生地壳再造的产物,并有少量印度陆壳富集组分参与成岩。     

北太平洋涛动和东亚冬季风对ENSO影响差异分析

北太平洋涛动(NPO)和东亚冬季风(EAWM)二者是热带外重要的气候系统,不仅对我国甚至对整个东亚气候都有重要影响,对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的影响也越发受到关注.本研究利用HadISST海温资料以及美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)月平均气象场再分析资料,采用相关回归等统计方法分析研究了冬季NPO和EAWM对次年...     

海洋与海岸带数据库开发与数据可视化的集成与应用

针对大量的海洋与海岸带地质数据,烟台海岸带地质调查中心设计开发了海洋与海岸带数据库管理与可视化系统,文章对数据库系统的开发环境、功能模块进行了介绍。该系统的开发与使用实现了多源异构地质数据的“汇聚-处理-展示”一体化,对地质信息资源的使用价值和利用率的提高具有重要意义。