西藏措勤地区火山岩的年代学与地球化学及其对岩石成因的制约

拉萨地块中部措勤盆地广泛发育酸性火山岩,对该区火山岩的形成时代和产出动力学背景以往研究存在不同认识。本文以区内塔诺错-措勤断裂南北两侧的火山岩为对象,进行了锆石U-Pb年龄与Hf同位素组成,以及全岩元素地球化学组成的系统测定,旨在精确限定火山岩的形成时代,并探讨火山岩的源区组成及可能的成岩动力学制约机制。锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年结果表明,塔诺错-措勤断裂南北两侧火山岩的成岩年龄相近,均介于110~120Ma,说明它们均应归为早白垩世则弄群(K1z),并非以往区调资料所认为的断裂带南侧火山岩属古新世典中组(E1d),而北侧火山岩属早白垩世则弄群(K1z)。区内火山岩主要为一套英安质、流纹质为主体的酸性岩石组合,均可归为高钾钙碱性岩系。火山岩富轻稀土和Rb、Ba等大离子亲石元素,贫Nb、Ta、Ti等高场强元素,具有与俯冲作用有关弧型岩浆岩的典型特征。它们均具有负的锆石εHf(t)值(=-12.9~-1.6)和偏老的二阶段模式年龄(tDM2=1.28~1.99Ga),岩石应主要起源于中部拉萨地块古—中元古代基底的熔融,但成岩过程中有亏损地幔组分的参与。根据对火山岩地质地球化学特征与产出背景的综合分析,表明它们应形成于具较厚陆壳背景的大陆边缘弧环境,早白垩世中晚期班公湖-怒江洋板片的南向俯冲断离是诱发区内火山岩成因的主要动力机制。     

台风目标观测研究进展回顾

台风目标观测对于弥补常规观测资料不足和提升台风数值预报技巧等具有重要意义.总结了2类理论方法的发展过程和优缺点:基于伴随的非线性方法能够较好地刻画非线性项的影响,而基于集合的方法在计算速度上更具有优势.同时回顾了一些能够代表当前气象观测水平的新装备和新技术在中国近海登陆台风外场观测试验中的应用,并从个例分析和统计分析两个角度总结了开展台风目标观测的有效性.通过总结发现,切线性近似、模式误差、度量范数和集合成员个数等都是影响台风目标观测的主要因素,它们可能会导致识别得到的台风敏感区之间存在一定差异,因此不能被忽略.未来应该更加关注台风强度目标观测的研究,在此基础上进一步推动非线性方法和数值模式的发展,并探索能够适合我国业务实际情况的台风目标观测实施方案.     

Evaluation of the performance of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in simulating the South Pacific Quadrupole-ENSO relationship

先前的观测研究表明,南太平洋四极子海温模态(SPQ)可以有效地作为ENSO的前兆信号.本文利用20个CMIP6模式及其对应的20个先前的CMIP5模式的工业化前气候模拟试验数据,评估和比较了CMIP6以及CMIP5模式对SPQ与ENSO的关系的模拟能力.结果表明,大多数CMIP5和CMIP6模式可以合理地模拟SPQ的基...     

Influence of the NAO on Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over East Asia: Multidecadal Variability and Decadal Prediction

In this paper,we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature(EASAT)and EASAT decadal prediction.The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT(EAmSAT)display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60-80-year multidecadal variability,apart from a long-term warming trend.The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades,which is consistent with the occurrence of extremely cold events in East Asia winters in recent years.The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12-18 years with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 15 years.Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability,but does not affect the robust lead relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT.We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge(COAB)mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of~15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection(AAMT)pattern.An NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed on the principle of the COAB mechanism,with good hindcast performance.The winter EASAT for 2020-34 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until~2025,implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia,followed by a sudden turn towards sharp warming.The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.     

冈底斯中段谢通门县查布中新世埃达克质岩石成因及其地质意义

查布复式花岗质岩体位于冈底斯岩浆岩带中段,出露面积约400 km2。文章报道了该岩体浅成相黑云母二长花岗斑岩和次火山岩相英安斑岩的锆石U-Pb年龄、元素地球化学和Sr-Nd-Hf同位素组成,据此探讨了岩石的成因及其所蕴含的地质意义。锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年结果表明,它们的成岩年龄为13~16 Ma,属中新世时期岩浆活动的产物。地球化学组成上,这套岩石为高钾钙碱性、准铝质—弱过铝质,富集轻稀土和Rb、Th、U等大离子亲石元素,亏损Nb、Ta、Ti等高场强元素,Cr、Ni的含量低,缺乏显著铕负异常,并具有高Sr和低Y、Yb含量,以及高的Sr/Y及(La/Yb)N比值,可归之为埃达克质岩石。它们的(87Sr/86Sr)i 比值偏高（=0.706347~0.707584）,εNd(t)值明显偏低（=-4.15~-7.33）,并具有散布于负值到正值之间的锆石εHf(t)值（=-5.99~7.78）。综合分析表明,中新世时期印度陆壳已俯冲至拉萨地块之下,查布埃达克质岩形成于后碰撞的伸展背景,应为增厚的初生镁铁质下地壳部分熔融岩浆与深俯冲而进入拉萨地块之下的印度古老地壳组分经混合作用的产物。     

河南省三川幅1∶50 000地质图数据库

河南省三川幅（I49E013014）1∶50 000地质图数据库的数据源采用实测和数字填图方法获得,野外数据采集过程中实施构造–岩性填图,注重特殊地质体及非正式填图单位的表达,共采集薄片66件,全岩岩石化学样品180件,同位素测年样品19件,化学分析样品21件。图幅主要成果有：在陶湾群层型剖面上发现多门类、时限短的微体化石,确定陶湾群为奥陶纪;在陶湾群发现碱性火山岩夹层,指示奥陶纪在华北板块南缘发育伸展性盆地;确定宽坪岩群四岔口岩组、谢湾岩组内的绿片岩为板内火山岩,指示宽坪岩群主体形成于伸展性盆地;在图幅区南部填绘出志留纪碱长花岗斑岩岩墙群,限定了秦岭洋关闭的时代不晚于志留纪;将晚中生代侵入岩划分为5个侵入期次;厘定了栾川断裂带存在早古生代、早中生代、晚中生代3期活动;在区内新发现震旦纪冰积物。该数据库的数据内容分为基本要素类、综合要素类和对象类,数据量约为63.5 MB,充分反映了本图幅区的地质矿产成果资料,对该区矿产勘查与开发、地质灾害防治、秦岭造山带研究与地质科普等提供基础数据支撑。     

Factors contributing to nitrate contamination in a groundwater recharge area of the North China Plain

Nitrate contamination is a common problem in groundwater of the North China Plain (NCP) owing to overuse of fertilizers and discharge of wastewater. Accordingly, it is important to investigate nitrate contamination in recharge areas to understand the fate of nitrate in the plains area. In this study, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of nitrate and factors contributing to its sources and transformation in shallow groundwater of the Beiyishui River watershed, NCP, were analysed by a combination of multiple regression and multi‐tracer methods. The nitrate concentration of 79% of the samples exceeded the natural environmental standard of 13.3 mg l^?1, while that of 23% of the samples exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) drinking water standard of 50 mg l^?1. Groundwater age estimation of the hill regions based on chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) revealed a mix of young water from 1982 to 1990 and old, low CFC water. The analysis based on the variations in land use in past years revealed that part of the grassland was converted into woodland between 1980 and 1995; therefore, the land use at the recharge time was used to determine which surface conditions influence groundwater nitrate concentrations. Multiple regression analysis showed that point source pollution contributed to the high concentration of nitrate in the hill region. Fertilizer application associated with land use change from grassland to woodland was also related to the present nitrate concentration. In the plains area, the contribution of fresh water from fault fractures and denitrification led to 31 to 72% and 6 to 51% reductions in nitrate concentrations, respectively. Our results suggested that controlling point source contamination and fertilizer input to hilly regions of the study will prevent groundwater of the plains area from deterioration in future years by mixing fresh water into the aquifers and decreasing denitrification, and therefore nitrate concentrations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparisons of Two Ensemble Mean Methods in Measuring the Average Error Growth and the Predictability

In this paper, taking the Lorenz system as an example, we compare the influences of the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean on measuring the global and local average error growth. The results show that the geometric mean error (GME) has a smoother growth than the arithmetic mean error (AME) for the global average error growth, and the GME is directly related to the maximal Lyapunov exponent, but the AME is not, as already noted by Krishnamurthy in 1993. Besides these, the GME is shown to be more appropriate than the AME in measuring the mean error growth in terms of the probability distribution of errors. The physical meanings of the saturation levels of the AME and the GME are also shown to be different. However, there is no obvious difference between the local average error growth with the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean, indicating that the choices of the AME or the GME have no influence on the measure of local average predictability.     

Progress in the Study of Nonlinear Atmospheric Dynamics and Predictability of Weather and Climate in China (2007--2011)

Recent progress in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and related predictability of weather and climate in China (2007-2011) are briefly introduced in this article. Major achievements in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics have been classified into two types:(1) progress based on the analysis of solutions of simplified control equations, such as the dynamics of NAO, the optimal precursors for blocking onset, and the behavior of nonlinear waves, and (2) progress based on data analyses, such as the nonlinear analyses of fluctuations and recording-breaking temperature events, the long-range correlation of extreme events, and new methods of detecting abrupt dynamical change. Major achievements in the study of predictability include the following:(1) the application of nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents (NLLE) to weather and climate predictability; (2) the application of condition nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) to the studies of El Nin o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions, ensemble forecasting, targeted observation, and sensitivity analysis of the ecosystem; and (3) new strategies proposed for predictability studies. The results of these studies have provided greater understanding of the dynamics and nonlinear mechanisms of atmospheric motion, and they represent new ideas for developing numerical models and improving the forecast skill of weather and climate events.