Impact of Perturbation Schemes on the Ensemble Prediction in a Coupled Lorenz Model

Based on a simple coupled Lorenz model, we investigate how to assess a suitable initial perturbation scheme for ensemble forecasting in a multiscale system involving slow dynamics and fast dynamics. Four initial perturbation approaches are used in the ensemble forecasting experiments: the random perturbation(RP), the bred vector(BV), the ensemble transform Kalman filter(ETKF), and the nonlinear local Lyapunov vector(NLLV) methods. Results show that,regardless of the method used, the ensemble ave...     

天气可预报性的时空分布

为了能从非线件误差增长动力学的角度研究大气的可预报性问题,文章引入了可预报性研究的新方法--非线性局部Lyapunov指数.非线性局部Lyapunov指数及其相关统计量能够被用来定量地确定混沌系统可预报性的大小,真正地实现对可预报性的定量化研究.为了把非线性局部Lyapunov指数方法应用到实际的大气可预报性研究中,给出了一种利用大气的实际观测资料估计非线性局部Lyapunov指数的计算方法.存非线性局部Lyapunov指数方法的基础上,文中利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对大气位势高度场、温度场、纬向风场、经向风场等要素场可预报性的时空分布进行了研究,结果表明:(1)在500 hPa高度层上,对于不同的要素场,其可预报期限的大小以及时空分布规律都不一样;全球大部分地区位势高度场可预报期限最大,温度场和纬向风场次之,而经向风场的可预报期限最小.(2)在500 hPa高度层七,位势高度场和温度场的纬向平均可预报期限基本上表现为一定的南北纬向带状分布,热带地区和南极地区的可预报期限最大,北极地区次之,南北半球中高纬度地区可预报期限相对较小.纬向风场可预报期限在热带地区最高,但是南北极地区可预报期限与邻近的中高纬度地区差别不大.经向风场可预报期限在南北两极地区最高,南北半球的中纬度和赤道附近地区可预报期限最小.(3)在垂直方向上,纬向平均高度场、温度场以及纬向风场可预报期限基本上都是随高度升高而增加,高层的可预报期限明显大于低层;经向风场可预报期限随高度的变化比较复杂,不同的纬度有所不同.(4)可预报性有明显的季节变化,不同要素场可预报期限高低值区的位置和强度随季节鄙有明显变化,对于全球大部分地区来说,冬季可预报性都大于夏季的.     

Investigation on frost heave of saturated–unsaturated soils

Acta Geotechnica - Frost heave is a process of coupled heat–water–mechanics, which refers to heat transfer, water migration, water–ice phase change, deformation, etc. The...     

Comparisons of Two Ensemble Mean Methods in Measuring the Average Error Growth and the Predictability

In this paper,taking the Lorenz system as an example,we compare the influences of the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean on measuring the global and local average error growth.The results show that the geometric mean error (GME) has a smoother growth than the arithmetic mean error (AME) for the global average error growth,and the GME is directly related to the maximal Lyapunov exponent,but the AME is not,as already noted by Krishnamurthy in 1993.Besides these,the GME is shown to be more appropriate than the AME in measuring the mean error growth in terms of the probability distribution of errors.The physical meanings of the saturation levels of the AME and the GME are also shown to be different.However,there is no obvious difference between the local average error growth with the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean,indicating that the choices of the AME or the GME have no influence on the measure of local average predictability.     

西藏尼木渐新世花岗岩中的岩浆混合作用:对岩石成因及陆壳增生的启示

尼木渐新世黑云母二长花岗岩中含有丰富的形态各异的暗色镁铁质微粒包体。本文报道了寄主岩和镁铁质包体的年代学、元素地球化学及Sr- Nd- Hf同位素组成,据此阐明了岩石的成因,并探讨了岩浆混合作用在成岩中的意义及其对陆壳增生的启示。锆石LA- ICP- MS U- Pb定年结果表明,寄主岩和镁铁质包体的成岩年龄在误差范围内基本一致,均为约30Ma,说明它们同时形成。元素地球化学组成上,寄主黑云母二长花岗岩为高钾钙碱性、准铝质,富集Rb、Th、U等大离子亲石元素,亏损Nb、Ta、Ti、P等高场强元素,且具有高Sr、低Y和Yb含量,Sr/Y比值高,缺乏明显铕负异常,表现出埃达克质岩石的特征。镁铁质包体贫硅,富铁、镁,具有与寄主岩相似的稀土与微量元素分布模式。二者的全岩Sr、Nd同位素和锆石Hf同位素组成也相近\[寄主岩:(87Sr/86Sr)i=0.7057~0.7064,εNd(t)=-1.45~0.35,εHf(t)=1.21~7.34;镁铁质包体:(87Sr/86Sr)i=0.7058~0.7064,εNd(t)=-2.23~-1.57,εHf(t)=2.40~7.04\]。综合分析表明,尼木渐新世黑云母二长花岗岩应主要起源于碰撞加厚的新生镁铁质下地壳的部分熔融,镁铁质包体应为幔源玄武质岩浆与其诱发加厚地壳熔融形成的埃达克质岩浆经不均匀混合作用的产物。结合对冈底斯带岩浆岩已有资料的全面分析,表明幔源玄武质岩浆的底侵及其诱发的岩浆混合作用既是冈底斯岩基形成的主要方式,也是导致青藏高原陆壳增生的重要途径。     

冻结砂土体积变形影响因素的敏感性分析

为了分析三轴试验中冻土体积变形影响因素的敏感性,选定包括内因和外因在内的6种影响因素,选用青海省德令哈的砂土按照正交试验方案进行常规三轴试验,并采用灰色关联分析法对试验结果进行分析,给出各影响因素的敏感性排序。结果表明,在选定的6种影响因素中,含水率、加载速率及温度的敏感性超过70%,需重点考虑。在较小含水率条件下,冻结砂土先体缩再体胀,且应力峰值点和应变峰值点所对应的轴向应变基本一致,而在饱和条件下仅发生体积膨胀。加载速率对冻土的影响主要表现为对其力学特性和破坏形态的改变,随着加载速率的增加冻土的体缩量、切线模量和峰值强度增加,但峰值应变却表现为减小趋势,冻结砂土性质趋近脆性。土样温度降低,土颗粒间的黏结力增加,孔隙压力转变为有效应力,从而导致冻结砂土的强度增加、体积膨胀量增加。分析结果可为相关试验及工程优化设计提供一定的参考。     

On the connection between AMOC and observed land precipitation in Northern Hemisphere: a comparison of the AMOC indicators

Climate Dynamics - Decadal climate prediction has been one of the most popular topics in recent climate change studies. It is closely linked to our daily life, deeply affecting the wellbeing of...     

东亚—西北太平洋海平面气压场的动力特征分析

东亚—西北太平洋地区的海平面气压直接反映了低层大气的环流特征,其动力特征对大气环流形势,气压系统的演变和天气、气候系统的发展等都有显著的影响.因此,深入分析东亚—西北太平洋地区海平面气压场的时空演变特征,对于提高我国的天气和气候预报具有重要意义.为了从非线性动力学的角度进行深入研究,文中使用了一种新方法来定量估算海平面...     

Changes in flow and chemistry of groundwater heavily affected by human impacts in the Baiyangdian catchment of the North China Plain

To identify impacts of air pollution, sewage drainage, agricultural production, over-pumping and reservoir storage on groundwater, a field survey was conducted in the Baiyangdian catchment of the North China Plain. Major ions and water isotopes were measured. Results show that hydrological processes and hydrogeochemical evolution of shallow groundwater were greatly disturbed by human activities. Excessive pumping resulted in significant declines of groundwater levels over the study area. This also induced infiltration of surface water into groundwater. A groundwater depression cone was the conflux center of groundwater surrounded by recharge zones including alluvial fans and surface water in alluvial plain. Pumping almost was the only way to discharge groundwater. Emission of SO _x and NO _x contributed at least 11% of rock weathering by dissolving into infiltrating precipitation. Surface waters containing sewage replenished ambient groundwater with an average mixing ratio of 74 ± 17% due to groundwater level drawdown. As a result, groundwater had elevated concentrations of Na⁺ and SO₄ ^2? with Na⁺ exchanged into aquifer sediments. About 29 ± 16% of Na⁺ was exchanged from groundwater into soil matrix. Agriculture nitrate was high only in the recharge zones. The most important result is that the transformation of the study area from a place rich in water resource into an area lack of water just took several decades with the joint action of the heavily human activities. Our study also indicates that shallow groundwater could sensitively respond to and record environmental changes.     

Interdecadal shift in the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and the tropical Indian Ocean

In this work, the authors investigate changes in the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) in the late 1970s. By contrasting the correlations of the EASM index (EASMI) with the summer IO sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) between 1953–1975 and 1978–2000, a pronounced different correlation pattern is found in the tropical IO. The SSTA pattern similar to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) shows a strongly positive correlation with the EASMI in 1953–1975. But in 1978–2000, significant negative correlation appears in the northern IO and the IOD-like correlation pattern disappears. It is indicated that the summer strong IOD events in 1953–1975 can cause a weaker-than-normal western North Pacific (WNP) subtropical high, which tends to favor a strong EASM. In 1978–2000, the connection between the summer IOD and the WNP circulation is disrupted by the climate shift. Instead, the northern IO shows a close connection with the WNP circulation in 1978–2000. The warming over the northern IO is associated with the significant enhanced 500 hPa geopotential height and an anomalous anticyclone over the WNP. The change in the IO–EASM relationship is attributed to the interdecadal change of the background state of the ocean–atmosphere system and the interaction between the ENSO and IO. In recent decades, the tropical IO and tropical Pacific have a warmer mean SST, which has likely strengthened (weakened) the influence of the northern IO (IOD) on the EASM. In addition, due to the increase in the ENSO variability along with the higher mean equatorial eastern Pacific SST in 1978–2000, the influence of ENSO on the East Asian summer circulation experiences a significant strengthening after the late 1970s. Because the warming over the northern IO is associated with the significant warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, the strengthened ENSO–EASM relationship has likely also contributed to the strengthened relationship between the northern IO and the EASM in 1978–2000.