Measures of Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Estimation and Geostatistical Optimal Design

Studies of site exploration, data assimilation, or geostatistical inversion measure parameter uncertainty in order to assess the optimality of a suggested scheme. This study reviews and discusses measures for parameter uncertainty in spatial estimation. Most measures originate from alphabetic criteria in optimal design and were transferred to geostatistical estimation. Further rather intuitive measures can be found in the geostatistical literature, and some new measures will be suggested in this study. It is shown how these measures relate to the optimality alphabet and to relative entropy. Issues of physical and statistical significance are addressed whenever they arise. Computational feasibility and efficient ways to evaluate the above measures are discussed in this paper, and an illustrative synthetic case study is provided. A major conclusion is that the mean estimation variance and the averaged conditional integral scale are a powerful duo for characterizing conditional parameter uncertainty, with direct correspondence to the well-understood optimality alphabet. This study is based on cokriging generalized to uncertain mean and trends because it is the most general representative of linear spatial estimation within the Bayesian framework. Generalization to kriging and quasi-linear schemes is straightforward. Options for application to non-Gaussian and non-linear problems are discussed.     

Recent evolution of Lake Arreo,northern Spain: influences of land use change and climate

We present a high-resolution, multiproxy reconstruction of the depositional history of Lake Arreo, northern Spain, for the last 60 years. We conducted sedimentological, geochemical and diatom analyses in short cores and made a detailed comparison with regional instrumental climate data (1952–2007), limnological monitoring of the lake (1992–2008) and recent land use changes that affect the lake catchment. Chronology is based on “floating” discontinuous varve counts and ¹³⁷Cs and ¹⁴C dates. Four periods were identified in the Lake Arreo recent history: (1) prior to 1963, varved facies intercalated with fine turbidite deposits, and diatom assemblages dominated by Cyclotella taxa indicate predominantly meromictic conditions, (2) from 1964 to 1978, permanent anoxia persisted in bottom waters, as shown by similar facies and diatom assemblages as before, though detrital layers were coarser, (3) from 1979 to 1994, sediment delivery to the lake increased and laminated, clastic facies were deposited, and (4) from 1995 to 2008, dominance of massive facies and an increase in Fragilaria tenera and Achnanthes minutissima reflect relatively lower lake levels, less frequent bottom anoxia with more frequent water column mixing, similar to modern conditions. The period 1952–1979 was a time of meromixis and varved facies deposition, and was characterized by higher rainfall and less intense agricultural pressure in the watershed. There were two short humid periods (1992–1993 and 1996–1998) when monitoring data show more anoxic weeks per year and relatively higher lake levels. Increased cultivation of small landholdings in 1963, and particularly after 1979, caused a large increase in sediment delivery to the lake. The inferred lake evolution is in agreement with monitoring data that suggest a transition from dominantly meromictic conditions prior to 1993–1994 to a predominantly monomictic pattern of circulation since then, particularly after 2000. The synergistic effects of intensive water extraction for irrigation and lower rainfall since 1979, and particularly since 1994, brought the long period of meromictic conditions in Lake Arreo to an end. Water balance and sediment delivery to the lake are dominant factors that control the limnological and mixing conditions in Lake Arreo and they must be considered in management and restoration plans.     

High-precision repeat-groundtrack orbit design and maintenance for Earth observation missions

The focus of this paper is the design and station keeping of repeat-groundtrack orbits for Sun-synchronous satellites. A method to compute the semimajor axis of the orbit is presented together with a station-keeping strategy to compensate for the perturbation due to the atmospheric drag. The results show that the nodal period converges gradually with the increase of the order used in the zonal perturbations up to \(J_{15}\). A differential correction algorithm is performed to obtain the nominal semimajor axis of the reference orbit from the inputs of the desired nodal period, eccentricity, inclination and argument of perigee. To keep the satellite in the proximity of the repeat-groundtrack condition, a practical orbit maintenance strategy is proposed in the presence of errors in the orbital measurements and control, as well as in the estimation of the semimajor axis decay rate. The performance of the maintenance strategy is assessed via the Monte Carlo simulation and the validation in a high fidelity model. Numerical simulations substantiate the validity of proposed mean-elements-based orbit maintenance strategy for repeat-groundtrack orbits.     

Formation Mechanism of Mud Bank Along the Southwest Coast of India

Mud bank formation during the southwest monsoon along the southwest coast of India remains an enigma to the researchers and coastal community in spite of several earlier studies. The present study attempts to unravel the mystery through a high-frequency, season-long time-series observation at Alappuzha, located at the southern part of the west coast of India, a region of frequent occurrence of mud bank. Using 7-month-long weekly time-series observation, we identified strong winds and high waves associated with onset of the southwest monsoon and subsequent three episodic atmospheric low-pressure events (LPEs).With the help of in situ time-series data, we show that the strong winds and high waves associated with southwest monsoon pre-conditions the near shore bottom sediment to bring it into suspension. The high amplitude waves associated with the southwest monsoon, while propagating from the deep water to shallow water region, interact with the bottom initiating bottom-sediment movement and its suspension due to wave refraction and shoaling. The sporadic occurrence of the atmospheric LPEs enhances the process of suspension of bottom sediment in the near shore region leading to the formation of fluid mud. Simulations with a cohesive sediment transport model yielded realistic estimates of sediment transport, in the presence of an onshore current, a pre-requisite for transporting the fluid mud toward the coast. The prevailing onshore upwelling current during the southwest monsoon provides the favorable pre-requisite conditions for transporting the fluid mud through depression channel network towards the coast. Once sufficient quantity and thickness of fluid mud is accumulated in the near shore region, it acts as a wave damper for subsequent high monsoon waves, as indicated by the time-series wave data, leading to the formation of tranquil mud bank region. Depression channel networks extending from the shelf to the coast off Alappuzha, Kochi, Ponnani, Beypore, and Ullal were found in the bathymetric charts, thus explaining why mud banks occur only at few locations in spite of the prevalence of similar monsoon conditions.     

High-efficiency calculation method for watershed rainfall-runoff routing using one-dimensional dynamic wave equations

Efficiency in solving the Saint-Venant equations for watershed rainfall-runoff routing is important in flood hydrology. This paper presents a high-efficiency numerical solution of one-dimensional dynamic wave equations (HEDWE) for watershed rainfall-runoff routing, in which the full momentum equation is written as a quadratic equation with only one unknown variable Q, water depth is derived from the continuity equation using the two-step predictor-corrector method, and the discrete scheme is the explicit upwind scheme. The results of numerical tests showed the HEDWE approach has several major advantages. 1) It is a stable numerical method, even for an initially dry area. 2) Its computational efficiency is higher than 4.76E+05 times/s. 3) It can be used for overland flow, river flow, and combinations thereof. The primary disadvantages of the HEDWE approach are its unsuitability for rapidly varying flow, such as dam-break floods.     

中国南沙某岛礁深层礁灰岩物理力学特性

随着南沙海域岛礁吹填工程的实践,礁灰岩的物理力学特性也逐渐成为工程地质领域的研究热点。从南沙某岛礁深度为300 m的钻孔中获取礁灰岩岩芯,分别通过纵横波测试,单轴及三轴压缩试验和礁灰岩流变试验。得到：深层礁灰岩岩样的礁灰岩岩石横波速度与纵波速度关系为V_s=0.4447V_p+409.94;礁灰岩破坏后仍然具有较大的承载能力,并且礁灰岩的破裂呈碎条状,沿着生长软弱面破裂,礁灰岩由于溶洞和软弱面的强度随机性致使其强度也表现很强的随机性;礁灰岩加速蠕变的发生的应力阀值约为5~6 MPa,当加载水平达到5~6 MPa时才有加速蠕变的过程。试验结论为南海岛礁工程建设提供依据,也为珊瑚礁工程地质力学特性的深入研究提供参考资料。     

Surface-deformation monitoring in the permafrost regions over the Tibetan Plateau,using Sentinel-1 data

Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar(D-In SAR) has been widely used to measure surface deformation over the Tibetan Plateau. However, the accuracy and applicability of the D-In SAR method are not well estimated due to the lack of in-situ validation. In this paper, we mapped the seasonal and long-term displacement of Tanggula(TGL) and Liangdaohe(LDH) permafrost regions with a stack of Sentinel-1 acquisitions using the Small Baseline Subset In SAR(SBAS-In SAR) method. In the TGL region, with its dry soils and sparse vegetation, the In SAR-derived surface-deformation trend was consistent with ground-based leveling results; long-term changes of the active layer showed a settlement rate of around 1 to 3 mm/a due to the melting of ground ice, indicating a degrading permafrost in this area. Around half of the deformation was picked up on monitoring, in contrast with in-situ measurements in LDH, implying that the D-In SAR method remarkably underestimated the surface-deformation. This phenomenon may be induced by the large soil-water content, high vegetation coverage, or a combination of these two factors in this region. This study demonstrates that surface deformation could be mapped accurately for a specific region with Sentinel-1 C-band data, such as in the TGL region.Moreover, although the D-In SAR technology provides an efficient solution for broad surface-deformation monitoring in permafrost regions, it shows a poor performance in the region with high soil-water content and dense vegetation coverage.     

Identification of Gleissberg Cycles and a Rising Trend in a 315-Year-Long Series of Sunspot Numbers

We show in this short note that the method of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is able to clearly extract a strong, clean, and clear component from the longest available sunspot (International Sunspot Number, ISN) time series (1700?–?2015) that cannot be an artifact of the method and that can be safely identified as the Gleissberg cycle. This is not a small component, as it accounts for 13% of the total variance of the total original signal. Almost three and a half clear Gleissberg cycles are identified in the sunspot number series. Four extended solar minima (XSM) are determined by SSA, the latest around 2000 (Cycle 23/24 minimum). Several authors have argued in favor of a double-peaked structure for the Gleissberg cycle, with one peak between 55 and 59 years and another between 88 and 97 years. We find no evidence of the former: solar activity contains an important component that has undergone clear oscillations of \(\approx90\) years over the past three centuries, with some small but systematic longer-term evolution of “instantaneous” period and amplitude. Half of the variance of solar activity on these time scales can be satisfactorily reproduced as the sum of a monotonous multi-secular increase, a \(\approx90\)-year Gleissberg cycle, and a double-peaked (\(\approx10.0\) and 11.0 years) Schwabe cycle (the sum amounts to 46% of the total variance of the signal). The Gleissberg-cycle component definitely needs to be addressed when attempting to build dynamo models of solar activity. The first SSA component offers evidence of an increasing long-term trend in sunspot numbers, which is compatible with the existence of the modern grand maximum.     

Microbial community changes in the digestive tract of the clam Meretrix petechialis in response to Vibrio parahaemolyticus challenge

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - Disease in clams frequently occurred over the last decade and has become a serious threat to the clam aquaculture industry and natural stocks. Mass clam...     

Automatic Determination of Stellar Atmospheric Parameters Using Neural Networks and Instance-Based Machine Learning

In this article we show how machine learning methods can beeffectively applied to the problem of automatically predictingstellar atmospheric parameters from spectral information, a veryimportant problem in stellar astronomy. We apply feedforwardneural networks, Kohonen's self-organizing maps andlocally-weighted regression to predict the stellar atmosphericparameters effective temperature, surface gravity and metallicityfrom spectral indices. Our experimental results show that thethree methods are capable of predicting the parameters with verygood accuracy. Locally weighted regression gives slightly betterresults than the other methods using the original dataset asinput, while self-organizing maps outperform the other methods when significant amounts of noise are added. We also implemented a heterogeneous ensemble of predictors, combining the results given by the three algorithms. This ensemble yields better results than any of the three algorithms alone, using both the original and the noisy data.