Organotin contamination in seafood and its implication for human health risk in Hong Kong

Organotins (OTs) have caused widespread adverse effects on marine organisms, while they can also induce health problems to humans via consumption of contaminated seafood. This study aimed to quantify the tissue concentrations of OTs in 11 seafood species in Hong Kong, and assess the human health risk for consuming these species. The tongue sole Paraplagusia blochii had the highest concentration of total OTs. Triphenyltin (TPT) accounted for 56–97% of total OTs. The highest hazard quotient (HQ) for TPT was 1.41 in P. blochii, while the HQs for butyltins were much less than 1. The results indicated that it is likely to have certain health risks for consuming P. blochii due to its high TPT contamination. Therefore, TPT should be a priority pollutant of concern. Appropriate management actions should be taken to control its use and release in the region in order to safeguard the marine ecosystem and human health.     

Fractured reservoirs with fracture corridors

Outcrop studies reveal a common occurrence of tabular zones of significantly‐increased fracture intensity affecting otherwise well‐lithified rocks. These zones, called fracture corridors, can have a profound effect on multi‐phase fluid flow in the subsurface. Using standard geo‐modelling tools, it is possible to generate 3D realizations of reservoirs that contain distributions of such fracture corridors that are consistent with observations, including the vertical frequency in pseudo‐wells inserted into the model at random locations. These models can generate the inputs to flow simulation. The approach adopted here is to run the flow simulations in a single‐porosity representation where the flow effects of fractures are upscaled into equivalent cell‐based properties, preserving a clear spatial relationship between the input geology and the resulting cellular model. The simulated reservoir performance outcomes are very similar to those seen in real oilfields: extreme variability between wells, early water breakthrough, disappointing recoveries and patchy saturation distributions. Thus, a model based on fracture corridors can provide an explanation for the observed flow performance of a suitable field. However, the use of seismics to identify fracture corridors is not an easy task. New work is needed to predict the seismic responses of fracture corridor systems to be able to judge whether it is likely that we can robustly detect and characterize these flow‐significant features adequately.     

Copper toxicity in the marine copepod Tigropus japonicus: low variability and high reproducibility of repeated acute and life-cycle tests

The intertidal copeopod Tigriopus japonicus, which is abundant and widely distributed along the coasts of Western Pacific, has been suggested to be a good marine ecotoxicity testing organism. In this study, a series of experiments were conducted to investigate the reproducibility and variability of copper (Cu) sensitivity of T. japonicus so as to evaluate its potential to serve as an appropriate test species. To understand the seasonal variation of Cu sensitivity, individuals of T. japonicus were collected from the field in summer and winter, and subjected to standard 96 h acute (static renewal) toxicity tests. 96 h-LC50 values of T. japonicus collected from the two seasons were marginally different (p = 0.05), with an overall coefficient of variation (CV) of 33%. Most importantly, our results indicated that chronic Cu sensitivity of T. japonicus was highly reproducible. The CVs of intrinsic rates of increase in the population of the control and Cu treatment (10 microg Cu l(-1)) groups were only 10-11% between 10 runs of a standardised complete life-cycle test. Moreover, different Cu(II) salts generally resulted in a similar 96 h-LC50 value while Cu(I) chloride was consistently slightly less toxic than Cu(II) salts. Given such a high reproducibility of toxic responses, it is advocated to use T. japonicus as a routine testing organism.     

Copper toxicity in the marine copepod Tigropus japonicus: Low variability and high reproducibility of repeated acute and life-cycle tests

The intertidal copeopod Tigriopus japonicus, which is abundant and widely distributed along the coasts of Western Pacific, has been suggested to be a good marine ecotoxicity testing organism. In this study, a series of experiments were conducted to investigate the reproducibility and variability of copper (Cu) sensitivity of T. japonicus so as to evaluate its potential to serve as an appropriate test species. To understand the seasonal variation of Cu sensitivity, individuals of T. japonicus were collected from the field in summer and winter, and subjected to standard 96 h acute (static renewal) toxicity tests. 96 h-LC50 values of T. japonicus collected from the two seasons were marginally different (p = 0.05), with an overall coefficient of variation (CV) of 33%. Most importantly, our results indicated that chronic Cu sensitivity of T. japonicus was highly reproducible. The CVs of intrinsic rates of increase in the population of the control and Cu treatment (10 μg Cu l⁻¹) groups were only 10–11% between 10 runs of a standardised complete life-cycle test. Moreover, different Cu(II) salts generally resulted in a similar 96 h-LC50 value while Cu(I) chloride was consistently slightly less toxic than Cu(II) salts. Given such a high reproducibility of toxic responses, it is advocated to use T. japonicus as a routine testing organism.     

Effects of Animal Size on Concentrations of Metallothionein and Metals in Periwinkles Littorina littorea Collected from the Firth of Clyde, Scotland

Different sizes of Littorina littorea were collected from four areas in the Firth of Clyde, Scotland. Their metallothionein (MT) and heavy metal concentrations were analysed using the Silver Saturation Method and Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry, respectively. Concentrations of MT, Cd and Zn (as μg g⁻¹ dry soft-body weight) generally decreased with an increase in size of L. littorea. MT concentrations were better correlated with Cd than with Zn or Cu concentrations. Nevertheless, MT and the metals in periwinkles (as μg individual⁻¹) increased significantly with increasing size. Concentrations of MT and the metals among the sampling areas were compared at a standardised soft-body weight (10 mg). The results from Discriminant Analysis based on all metal concentrations indicate that Largs is different from the other areas and characterised by high Fe concentrations in L. littorea. The problems and differences in using either soft-body weight or shell length as independent variable for size-standardisation are discussed.     

Elevation Dependence of Winter Wheat Production in Eastern Washington State with Climate Change: A Methodological Study

Crop growth models, used in climate change impact assessments to project production on a local scale, can obtain the daily weather information to drive them from models of the Earth's climate. General Circulation Models (GCMs), often used for this purpose, provide weather information for the entire globe but often cannot depict details of regional climates especially where complex topography plays an important role in weather patterns. The U.S. Pacific Northwest is an important wheat growing region where climate patterns are difficult to resolve with a coarse scale GCM. Here, we use the PNNL Regional Climate Model (RCM) which uses a sub-grid parameterization to resolve the complex topography and simulate meteorology to drive the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) crop model. The climate scenarios were extracted from the PNNL-RCM baseline and 2 × CO₂ simulationsfor each of sixteen 90 km² grid cells of the RCM, with differentiation byelevation and without correction for climate biases. The dominant agricultural soil type and farm management practices were established for each grid cell. Using these climate and management data in EPIC, we simulated winter wheat production in eastern Washington for current climate conditions (baseline) and a 2 × CO₂ `greenhouse' scenario of climate change.Dryland wheat yields for the baseline climate averaged 4.52 Mg ha^–1 across the study region. Yields were zero at high elevations where temperatures were too low to allow the crops to mature. The highest yields (7.32 Mgha^–1) occurred at intermediate elevations with sufficientprecipitation and mild temperatures. Mean yield of dryland winter wheat increased to 5.45 Mg ha^–1 for the 2 × CO₂ climate, which wasmarkedly warmer and wetter. Simulated yields of irrigated wheat were generally higher than dryland yields and followed the same pattern but were, of course, less sensitive to increases in precipitation. Increases in dryland and irrigated wheat yields were due, principally, to decreases in the frequency of temperature and water stress. This study shows that the elevation of a farm is a more important determinant of yield than farm location in eastern Washington and that climate changes would affect wheat yields at all farms in the study.     

Cluster analysis of post-landfall tracks of landfalling tropical cyclones over China

In this paper, we apply finite-mixture-model-based clustering algorithms to cluster post-landfall tracks of tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall over China. Because existing studies find that landfall surfaces or elevations affect post-landfall TC movements, we also take account of elevations in addition to time orders in this model. Our study reveals three clusters, with cluster 1 making landfall in Hainan province and moving across the western coast of Guangdong province. Most of the TC tracks in cluster 1 move over the ocean and make secondary landfalls over Yunnan province of China and Vietnam. Cluster 1 finally dissipates inland and moves westward as a result of the westward-shift subtropical high, westward steering flow, easterly vertical wind shear and strong mountainous blocking. Cluster 2 makes landfall over Guangdong and Fujian provinces. TCs in cluster 2 subsequently move inland and disappear due largely to westward-shift subtropical high, easterly steering flow, easterly vertical wind shear and relatively strong mountainous blocking. Cluster 3 makes landfall along the Fujian and Zhejiang coast and sustains a long period of time, recurving mostly to the mid-latitude region owing to the surrounding eastward-shift subtropical high, westerly vertical wind shear, weak mountainous blocking and westerly steering flow. Because cluster 2 is significantly associated with La Niña events, TCs more likely make landfall over southeastern China coast and move westward or northwestward without recurving. Cluster 3 sustains a longer time than clusters 1 and 2 in spite of its weak horizontal and vertical water vapor supply. TCs in cluster 3 interact actively with westerlies during the post-landfall period. However, we cannot observe any analogous interactions with the mid-latitude westerlies in clusters 1 and 2. TCs of clusters 1 and 2 are influenced by summer monsoon flows. Moreover, summer monsoon exerts a greater influence on cluster 1 than cluster 2. The composite 200 hPa divergence of cluster 3 is stronger than that of clusters 1 and 2. This explains to some degree why cluster 3 sustains longer than clusters 1 and 2 after making landfall.     

Large-Eddy Simulation of Flow and Pollutant Dispersion in High-Aspect-Ratio Urban Street Canyons with Wall Model

A large-eddy simulation (LES) with a one-equation subgrid-scale (SGS) model was developed to investigate the flow field and pollutant dispersion inside street canyons of high aspect ratio (AR). A 1/7th power-law wall model was implemented near rigid walls to mitigate the demanding near-wall resolution requirements in LES. This LES model had been extensively validated against experimental results for street canyons of AR = 1 and 2 before it was applied to the cases of AR = 3 and 5. A ground-level passive pollutant line source, located in the middle of the street, was used to simulate vehicular emissions. Three and five vertically aligned primary recirculations were developed in the street canyons of AR 3 and 5, respectively. The ground-level mean wind speed was less than 0.5% of the free stream value, which makes it difficult for the pollutant to be transported upward for removal. High pollutant concentration and variance were found near the buildings where the air flow is upwards. It was found that the velocity fluctuation, pollutant concentration and variance were all closely related to the interactions between the primary recirculations and/or the free surface layer. Several quantities, which are non-linear functions of AR, were introduced to quantify the air quality in street canyons of different configurations.     

Hydrologic Implications of Dynamical and Statistical Approaches to Downscaling Climate Model Outputs

Six approaches for downscaling climate model outputs for use in hydrologic simulation were evaluated, with particular emphasis on each method's ability to produce precipitation and other variables used to drive a macroscale hydrology model applied at much higher spatial resolution than the climate model. Comparisons were made on the basis of a twenty-year retrospective (1975–1995) climate simulation produced by the NCAR-DOE Parallel ClimateModel (PCM), and the implications of the comparison for a future(2040–2060) PCM climate scenario were also explored. The six approaches were made up of three relatively simple statistical downscaling methods – linear interpolation (LI), spatial disaggregation (SD), and bias-correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) – each applied to both PCM output directly(at T42 spatial resolution), and after dynamical downscaling via a Regional Climate Model (RCM – at 1/2-degree spatial resolution), for downscaling the climate model outputs to the 1/8-degree spatial resolution of the hydrological model. For the retrospective climate simulation, results were compared to an observed gridded climatology of temperature and precipitation, and gridded hydrologic variables resulting from forcing the hydrologic model with observations. The most significant findings are that the BCSD method was successful in reproducing the main features of the observed hydrometeorology from the retrospective climate simulation, when applied to both PCM and RCM outputs. Linear interpolation produced better results using RCM output than PCM output, but both methods (PCM-LI and RCM-LI) lead to unacceptably biased hydrologic simulations. Spatial disaggregation of the PCM output produced results similar to those achieved with the RCM interpolated output; nonetheless, neither PCM nor RCM output was useful for hydrologic simulation purposes without a bias-correction step. For the future climate scenario, only the BCSD-method (using PCM or RCM) was able to produce hydrologically plausible results. With the BCSD method, the RCM-derived hydrology was more sensitive to climate change than the PCM-derived hydrology.