大气垂直运动对雷达估测降水的影响

运用雷达反射率因子（Z）与降水强度（R）之间的关系定量估测降水,降水云体中的大气垂直运动（w_a）不可忽视。PARSIVEL激光雨滴谱仪（简称PARSIVEL）在获取雨滴粒径分布的同时可以从测量的雨滴下降速度分布中提取w_a,用于分析PARSIVEL高度上的大气垂直运动对雷达Z估测降水强度影响。使用2014年5-6月华南季风降水观测试验期间广东阳江5次层状云、6次对流性降水过程中PARSIVEL数据分析大气垂直运动对定量估测降水影响,w_a对层状云和对流云降水强度影响范围分别为-0.18~1.05 mm·h-1和-5.44~24.81 mm·h-1,相对影响值分别为-13.61%~13.99%,-38.59%~25.92%。静止大气条件下,雷达估算降水Z-R关系式中系数A,b引起的层状云和对流云降水估测偏差平均分别为10.9%和25.5%。真实大气中雷达估测降水的偏差平均情况是层状云降水由于w_a的对消作用降低为9.2%,对流云降水则增加到51.2%。对流性降水中大气垂直运动对雷达估测降水的影响较大。     

西藏路电力隧道三号井施工对周边建筑物沉降因素分析

主要针对我国首条在城市化地区大型电力隧道施工过程中对周边环境影响的保护及精度分析,信息监测工作在施工过程中的重要作用。今后工作中应采用的方法。     

基于气象因子的南京市冬季和夏季用电量预测研究

基于2014—2016年南京市常规气象逐时观测数据、逐日用电量和逐时用电负荷数据,分析南京市用电量变化及其与气象因子的关系。结果表明：南京市用电量7—8月、12月至翌年1月为两个峰值,4月和10月为两个谷值,年变化明显。四季均呈现显著“周末效应”。用电负荷一天内有两个峰值,分别出现在10时和20时;两个谷值,一个谷值冬夏季在04时,另一谷值冬季在14时,夏季在18时。南京市用电量与气象条件的变化密切相关,气象因子与用电量的关系在不同月份有所不同,如夏(秋、冬)季气温日较差越大(小),用电量越大;7月、8月(10月至翌年3月)气温越高(低),用电量越大;冬季用电量受气象要素的影响程度总体低于夏季。冬季用电量主要受气温制约;夏季用电量受气象要素的影响更为复杂,除了气温,还需综合考虑水汽、日照等因子。利用逐步回归法,建立冬、夏季逐月日用电量气象预测方程,方程中入选气象因子的存在明显的月际差异。不同月份分别针对性地考量入选气象因子的预报值,做出用电量预估,可为电力调度提供参考。     

7个IPCC AR4模式对中国地区极端降水指数模拟能力的评估及其未来情景预估

利用中国区域550个站点1961～2000年日降水量资料, 考察参与政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)第四次评估报告的7个新一代全球模式及多模式集合对现代气候情景下(20C3M)5个极端降水指数的模拟能力, 同时进行中国区域未来不同排放情形下极端降水事件变化的预估, 结果表明: 最新全球模式能较好地模拟出极端降水指数气候场的空间分布及其中国区域的线性趋势, 且模式集合模拟能力优于大部分单个模式, 但在青藏高原东侧、 高原南部存在虚假的极端降水高值区, 模拟的东部季风区的极端降水强度系统性偏低, 区域平均序列年际变率的模拟能力也较低。中国地区21世纪与降水有关的事件都有趋于极端化的趋势, 极端降水强度可能增强, 干旱也将加重, 且变化幅度与排放强度成正比。     

CMIP5气候模式对东亚夏季平均环流场模拟能力的评估

利用第五次耦合模式比较计划(Phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,CMIP5)提供的30个全球气候模式模拟的1961~2005年的夏季逐月环流场资料及同期NCEP再分析资料,引入泰勒图及各种评估指标,探讨全球气候模式对东亚夏季平均大气环流场的模拟能力,寻求具有较好东亚夏季环流场模拟能力的气候模式。结果表明:1)全球气候模式能够模拟出东亚夏季平均大气环流的基本特征,CMIP5模式的总体模拟能力较第三次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP3)有较大程度的提高,如CMIP5模式对东亚大部分地区夏季海平面气压(Sea Level Pressure,SLP)场的模拟偏差在6 h Pa以内。2)模式对不同层次环流场的模拟能力存在差异,500 h Pa高度场的模拟能力最强,其次为100 h Pa高度场、850 h Pa风场,SLP场最弱;对东亚夏季主要环流系统的模拟对比发现,模式对印度热低压及东伸槽强度指数的模拟能力最好。3)综合CMIP5模式对东亚夏季各层次平均环流场以及主要环流系统的模拟能力,发现模拟较好的5个模式为CESM1-CAM5、MPI-ESM-MR、MPI-ESM-LR、MPI-ESM-P和Can ESM2。4)相对于单一模式,多模式集合平均(MME)模拟能力较强,但较优选的前5个模式集合平均的模拟能力弱。     

黄河源区水环境变化及黄河出现冬季断流的原因

自1954年有水文观测资料以来，黄河曾在青海省玛多县黄河沿水文站发生过3次断流。本文在分析黄河源区水环境特征及其影响因素的基础上指出，鄂陵湖、扎陵湖的环湖融区调节能力低，当遇到连续干旱、冬季其调节水量不足以维系黄河径流时便会发生断流，这是断流的主因。湖水位降低、开采沙金、过度放牧等自然和人为因素也会对黄河发生断流产生影响。鄂陵湖口附近黄河上修建的水电站开始蓄水，提高了两湖及环湖融区的调节能力，今后黄河冬季出现断流的可能性将大为降低。     

Cenozoic uplift of the Tibetan Plateau: Evidence from the tectonic-sedimentary evolution of the western Qaidam Basin

Geologists agree that the collision of the Indian and Asian plates caused uplift of the Tibet Plateau.However,controversy still exists regarding the modes and mechanisms of the Tibetan Plateau uplift.Geology has recorded this uplift well in the Qaidam Basin.This paper analyzes the tectonic and sedimentary evolution of the western Qaidam Basin using sub-surface seismic and drill data. The Cenozoic intensity and history of deformation in the Qaidam Basin have been reconstructed based on the tectonic developments,faults growth index,sedimentary facies variations,and the migration of the depositional depressions.The changes in the sedimentary facies show that lakes in the western Qaidam Basin had gone from inflow to still water deposition to withdrawal.Tectonic movements controlled deposition in various depressions,and the depressions gradually shifted southeastward.In addition,the morphology of the surface structures in the western Qaidam Basin shows that the Cenozoic tectonic movements controlled the evolution of the Basin and divided it into(a) the southern fault terrace zone, (b) a central Yingxiongling orogenic belt,and(c) the northern fold-thrust belt;divided by the XI fault (Youshi fault) and Youbei fault,respectively.The field data indicate that the western Qaidam Basin formed in a Cenozoic compressive tectonic environment caused by the India—Asia plate collision. Further,the Basin experienced two phases of intensive tectonic deformation.The first phase occurred during the Middle Eocene—Early Miocene(Xia Ganchaigou Fm.and Shang Ganchaigou Fm.,43.8—22 Ma),and peaked in the Early Oligocene(Upper Xia Ganchaigou Fm.,31.5 Ma).The second phase occurred between the Middle Miocene and the Present(Shang Youshashan Fm.and Qigequan Fm., 14.9—0 Ma),and was stronger than the first phase.The tectonic—sedimentary evolution and the orientation of surface structures in the western Qaidam Basin resulted from the Tibetan Plateau uplift,and recorded the periodic northward growth of the Plateau.Recognizing this early tectonic—sedimentary evolution supports the previous conclusion that northern Tibet responded to the collision between India and Asia shortly after its initiation.However,the current results reveal that northern Tibet also experienced another phase of uplift during the late Neogene.The effects of these two stages of tectonic activity combined to produce the current Tibetan Plateau.     

Grain Coarsening of Hematite in the Gushan Iron Deposit,Anhui Province,China

The iron ores of the Gushan mine occur in the contact zone of a Mesozoic diorite intrusion and are composed primarily of hematite microcrystallites and chalcedony,The hematite microcrystallites have undergone post-mineralization recrystallization and coarsening with resultant formation of lath-shaped hematite porphyroblasts.Microscopic investigation reveals that recrystallization and coarsening of the hematite ores of the Gushan mine took place without the formation of new nuclei,due to the coalescence of the microcrystallites.The whole process could have begun with the mutual approach of the microcrystallites,followed by grain rotation to realize paralleism and ending by the welding of these grains to form optically homogeneous porphyroblastic hematite.     

东天山-北山镁铁-超镁铁质岩特征、成矿意义及构造背景

东天山-北山地区镁铁-超镁铁质岩体成群成带分布,明显受区域内主干断裂控制,主要分布于东天山、中天山地块和北山裂谷。镁铁-超镁铁质岩体与Cu-Ni矿化密切相关,小岩体成大矿为普遍现象。含矿岩相多集中在橄榄辉长岩、角闪橄榄岩、辉橄岩和各岩相接触带上。岩体低Ti高Mg,高m/s和m/f是评价其含矿性的良好指标。SrNd同位素显示镁铁-超镁铁质岩体整体上源于亏损地幔,在演化过程中经历了同化混染作用,中天山和北山地区较东天山地区混染程度较小。成岩成矿集中在早二叠世约280 Ma,指示其可能是统一地球热力学的产物。镁铁-超镁铁质岩体的构造背景复杂,争议较多,单一的构造背景不能解释所有问题,后碰撞伸展和地幔柱的共同作用可能诱发大规模成岩成矿事件。     

湖南东坡野鸡尾矿床H2S—CH4—CO2流体包裹体研究

本文利用Chaixmeca冷热台详细研究了产于野鸡尾云英岩型锡矿床中的含H_2S包裹体低温相平衡,其结果S_(H_2S)熔化温度为-98±1℃,S_(co_2)的熔化温度为-80—-90℃,L_(H_2S)与L_(CH_4+co_2)混溶至L_(H_2O+CO_2)的温度为-68.6—-70.2℃,在-57.2—-55.6℃范围内包裹体均一至超临界流体。根据现有相图资料推测,这类包裹体的流体体系为H_2S-CH_4-CO_2体系,其组成满足: