The impact of physical processes on pollutant transport in Hangzhou Bay

A Lagrangian tracer model is set up for Hangzhou Bay based on Coupled Hydrodynamical Ecological model for Regional Shelf Sea (COHERENS). The study area is divided into eight subdomains to identify the dominant physical processes, and the studied periods are March (the dry season) and July (the wet season). The model performance has been first verified by sea-surface elevation and tidal current observations at several stations. Eight tracer experiments are designed and Lagrangian particle tracking is simulated to examine the impact of physical processes (tide, wind and river runoff) on the transport of passive tracer released within the surface layer. Numerical simulations and analysis indicate that: (1) wind does not change the tracer distribution after 30 days except for those released from the south area of the bay during the wet season; (2) the tide and the Qiantang River runoff are important for particle transport in the head area of the bay; (3) the Changjiang River runoff affects the tracer transport at the mouth of the bay, and its impact is smaller in the dry season than in the wet season. Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40576080); National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, No. 2007AA12Z182)     

How Well Does Chlorophyll Explain the Seasonal Variation in Phytoplankton Activity?

The seasonal variation in phytoplankton activity is determined by analysing 1385 primary production (PP) profiles, chlorophyll a (Chl) concentration profiles and phytoplankton carbon biomass concentrations (C) from the period 1998–2012. The data was collected at six different stations in the Baltic Sea transition zone (BSTZ) which is a location with strong seasonal production patterns with light as the key parameter controlling this productivity. We show that the use of Chl as a proxy for phytoplankton activity strongly overestimates the contribution from the spring production to annual pelagic carbon flow. Spring (February and March) Chl comprised 16–30% of the total annual Chl produced, whereas spring C was much lower (8–23%) compared to the annual C. Spring PP accounted for 10–18% of the total annual PP, while the July–August production contributed 26–33%, i.e. within the time frame when zooplankton biomass and grazing pressure are highest. That is, Chl failed in this study to reflect the importance of the high summer PP. A better proxy for biomass may be C, which correlated well with the seasonal pattern of PP (Pearson correlation, p < 0.05). Thus, this study suggests to account for the strong seasonal pattern in C/Chl ratios when considering carbon flow in coastal systems. Seasonal data for PP were fitted to a simple sinusoidal wave model describing the seasonal distribution of PP in the BSTZ and were proposed to present a better parameterizaton of PP in shallow stratified temperate regions than more commonly applied proxies.     

Sources of uncertainty in exploring rangeland phenology: A case study in an alpine meadow on the central Tibetan Plateau

Global climate change has been found to substantially influence the phenology of rangeland, especially on the Tibetan Plateau. However, there is considerable controversy about the trends and causes of rangeland phenology owing to different phenological exploration methods and lack of ground validation. Little is known about the uncertainty in the exploration accuracy of vegetation phenology. Therefore, in this study, we selected a typical alpine rangeland near Damxung national meteorological station as a case study on central Tibetan Plateau, and identified several important sources influencing phenology to better understand their effects on phenological exploration. We found man-made land use was not easily distinguished from natural rangelands, and therefore this may confound phenological response to climate change in the rangeland. Change trends of phenology explored by four methods were similar, but ratio threshold method (RTM) was more suitable for exploring vegetation phenology in terms of the beginning of growing season (BGS) and end of growing season (EGS). However, some adjustments are needed when RTM is used in extreme drought years. MODIS NDVI/EVI dataset was most suitable for exploring vegetation phenology of BGS and EGS. The discrimination capacities of vegetation phenology declined with decreasing resolution of remote sensing images from MODIS to GIMMS AVHRR datasets. Additionally, distinct trends of phenological change rates were indicated in different terrain conditions, with advance of growing season in high altitudes but delay of season in lower altitudes. Therefore, it was necessary to eliminate interference of complex terrain and man-made land use to ensure the representativeness of natural vegetation. Moreover, selecting the appropriate method to explore rangelands and fully considering the impact of topography are important to accurately analyze the effects of climate change on vegetation phenology.     

Anisotropies of in-phase,out-of-phase,and frequency-dependent susceptibilities in three loess/palaeosol profiles in the Czech Republic; methodological implications

The relationship between the anisotropy of frequency-dependent magnetic susceptibility (fdAMS) and the anisotropy of out-of-phase magnetic susceptibility (opAMS) was investigated theoretically and also empirically at three loess/palaoesol profiles in Prague and in Southern Moravia. The data treatment was made in terms of mean susceptibility, degree of AMS, and orientations of principal susceptibilities. It has shown that the fdAMS and opAMS can serve as indicators of the preferred orientations of ultrafine magnetic particles that are on transition between superparamagnetic and stable single domain states in rocks, soils and environmental materials. In loess/palaeosol sequences, the fdAMS and opAMS correlate reasonably, because they are due to magnetic particles of similar grain sizes. The fdAMS and opAMS can be both coaxial with standard AMS (i.e. anisotropy of in-phase susceptibility - ipAMS) or non-coaxial indicating slightly different orientations of viscous magnetic particles.     

Cyclic degradation and non-coaxiality of soft clay subjected to pure rotation of principal stress directions

Foundation soils are often under non-proportional cyclic loadings. The deformation behaviour and the mechanism of non-coaxiality under continuous pure principal stress rotation for clays are not clearly investigated up to now. In order to study the effect of pure principal stress rotation, a series of cyclic undrained tests on Shanghai soft clay subjected to cyclic rotation of principal stress directions keeping the deviatoric stress constant under the pure rotation condition were conducted using hollow cylinder apparatus. Based on this, the evolutions of excess pore pressure and strains during cyclic loading were investigated, together with the effects of the intermediate principal stress parameter and the deviatoric stress level on stress–strain stiffness and non-coaxiality. The result can provide an experimental basis for constitutive modelling of clays describing the behaviour under non-proportional loadings.     

Modeling of environmental influence in structural health assessment for reinforced concrete buildings

One branch of structural health monitoring (SHM) utilizes dynamic response measurements to assess the structural integrity of civil infrastructures. In particular,modal frequency is a widely adopted indicator for structural damage since its square is proportional to structural stiffness. However,it has been demonstrated in various SHM projects that this indicator is substantially affected by fluctuating environmental conditions. In order to provide reliable and consistent information on the health status of the monitored structures,it is necessary to develop a method to filter this interference. This study attempts to model and quantify the environmental influence on the modal frequencies of reinforced concrete buildings. Daily structural response measurements of a twenty-two story reinforced concrete building were collected and analyzed over a one-year period. The Bayesian spectral density approach was utilized to identify the modal frequencies of this building and it was clearly seen that the temperature and humidity fluctuation induced notable variations. A mathematical model was developed to quantify the environmental effects and model complexity was taken into consideration. Based on a Timoshenko beam model,the full model class was constructed and other reduced-order model class candidates were obtained. Then,the Bayesian modal class selection approach was employed to select the one with the most suitable complexity. The proposed model successfully characterizes the environmental influence on the modal frequencies. Furthermore,the estimated uncertainty of the model parameters allows for assessment of the reliability of the prediction. This study not only improves the understanding about the monitored structure,but also establishes a systematic approach for reliable health assessment of reinforced concrete buildings.     

A review of advances in China’s flash flood early-warning system

This paper summarizes the main flash flood early-warning systems of America, Europe, Japan, and Taiwan China and discusses their advantages and disadvantages. The latest development in flash flood prevention is also presented. China’s flash flood prevention system involves three stages. Herein, the warning methods and achievements in the first two stages are introduced in detail. Based on the worldwide experience of flash flood early-warning systems, the general research idea of the third stage is proposed from the viewpoint of requirements for flash flood prevention and construction progress of the next stage in China. Real-time dynamic warning systems can be applied to the early-warning platform at four levels (central level, provincial level, municipal level, and county level) . Through this, soil moisture, peak flow, and water level can be calculated in real-time using distributed hydrological models, and then flash flood warning indexes can be computed based on defined thresholds of runoff and water level. A compound warning index (CWI) can be applied to regions where rainfall and water level are measured by simple equipment. In this manner, flash-flood-related factors such as rainfall intensity and antecedent and cumulative rainfall depths can be determined using the CWI method. The proposed methodology for the third stage could support flash flood prevention measures in the 13th 5-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China (2016–2020). The research achievements will serve as a guidance for flash flood monitoring and warning as well as flood warning in medium and small rivers.     

Paleomagnetic Excursions Recorded in the Yanchi Playa in Middle Hexi Corridor, NW China Since the Last Interglacial

Paleomagnetic determinations on lithologieal profiles of two paralleled long drillin gcores covering the past 130 kyr B.P., GT40 and GT60,from the Yanchi Playa in the arid Northwestern China indicate that a series of pronounced paleomagnetic excursions have been documented. By correlating our results with published regional and worldwide reports 4 excursion events out of 10 apparent reversal signals (labeled from GT-1 to GT-10) were identified as excursion events coeval with the Mono Lake Event (28.4 kyr-25.8 kyr), Laschamp Event (43.3 kyr-40.5kyr), Gaotai Event (82.8 kyr-72.4 kyr) and the Blake Event (127.4 kyr-113.3 kyr), respectively. GT-9 correlates with the above-mentioned Gaotai Event,GT-7 and GT-6 correspond to two stages of the Laschamp Event and GT-5 to the Mono Lake Event. It is noteworthy that the so-called Gaotai Event has not been reported as a pronounced paleomagnetic excursion in the Northwestern China. Every magnetic excursion event corresponds to paleointensity minima, anteceding those established abrupt paleoclimatic change events, such as the Younger Drays and the Heinrich Events (H1-H6). Here, we tentatively propose that these geomagnetic excursions/reversals can be viewed as precursors to climate abruptness. During the transitional stages when the earth‘s magnetic field shifted between a temporal normal and a negative period, the earth‘s magnetic paleointensity fell correspondingly to a pair of minima. Although more precise chronology and more convincing rock magnetic parameter determinations are essentially required for further interpretation of their intricate coupling mechanism, these results may have revealed, to some extent, that the earth‘s incessantly changing magnetic field exerts an strong influence on the onset of saw-tooth shaped abrupt climate oscillations through certain feedback chains in arid Central Asia or even North Hemispheric high latitude regions.