Rapid forecasting of urban flood inundation using multiple machine learning models

Natural Hazards - Urban flood inundation is worsening as the number of short-duration rainstorms increases, and it is difficult to accurately predict urban flood inundation over a long lead time;...     

卤水中铷铯的分离与提取

在查阅大量国内外文献的基础上,对采用沉淀法、离子交换法和溶剂萃取法从卤水中分离提取铷、铯进行了较为系统的评述。     

西大别南缘印支期吕王-高桥-永佳河构造混杂岩带的厘定及其构造意义

在西大别造山带的区调工作中,新识别出一系列中元古代末-新元古代的岩石-构造单元,它们沿着吕王-高桥-永佳河一线展布,并构成一条NNW-SEE向展布的构造混杂岩带.该混杂岩带主要由超镁铁质-镁铁质岩、硅泥质岩、石英质岩、大理岩、含碳陆源碎屑岩、双峰式火山岩以及卷入其中的榴辉岩等多种变质岩块(片)共同组成,并赋存于一套遭受了强烈剪切变形的泥质片岩之中.混杂岩带内各岩块(片)的原岩年龄跨度较大(>4亿年),分别集中在1 200～1 100 Ma和800～700 Ma之间.锆石记录的变质年龄和云母的冷却年龄则主要集中在240～200 Ma之间.结合接触关系、岩性组合、年代学及地球化学数据的综合研究认为,混杂岩带的物质来源既包括中元古代末-新元古代早期的弧-弧后盆地系统的沉积岩-火山岩-侵入岩;也包括叠置其上的新元古代中-晚期大陆裂解期的沉积岩-火成岩.这些不同时代、不同性质岩石在三叠纪不同程度地卷入了华南陆块北缘向华北陆块之下的俯冲,而后快速折返,最终沿着区域上折返断裂(桃花-七角山断裂)就位于西大别造山带之中,形成一条包含高压-超高压变质岩的三叠纪构造混杂岩带.混杂岩带内新厘定的中元古...     

钾质斑脱岩的研究进展

从矿物学、地球化学两个方面对钾质斑脱岩的研究进展进行综合评述。矿物学研究表明,钾质斑脱岩为岩浆成因,由粘土矿物与非粘土矿物组成,粘土矿物以伊．蒙混层矿物和伊利石为主,非粘土矿物包括原生斑晶矿物和次生矿物。钾质斑脱岩的矿物学研究有助于地层对比难题的解决,亦将促进古大陆再造研究。钾质斑脱岩及斑脱岩的主量元素数据统计结果显示,钾质斑脱岩以相对富钾为特征,K2O含量一般大于3．5％。微量元素数据统计表明,钾质斑脱岩的微量元素以,Th、U的明显富集为特征,同时均具有负Eu异常并缺乏负Ce异常。通过对早寒武世、奥陶纪及志留纪的钾质斑脱岩的微量元素特征进行对比研究,认为不同时期钾质斑脱岩的微量元素与REE的配分模式表现出不同的特征,尤其是Nb／Y、Th／U等微量元素比值及（Ia/Yb）N、（Ia／Sm）N、（G/Yb）N、δEu和δCe等稀土元素参数的差异明显。经对比,初步判定滇东石岩头组底部钾质斑脱岩与遵义石岩头组钾质斑脱岩可能不属于同一期火山活动的产物。     

Organochlorine pesticides in soil and air at and around a compound contaminated site: vertical distribution,soil–air exchange and risk evaluation

The control of soil pollution in China has become an issue, and in this study, a compound contaminated site was selected and focus on the site and its nearby environment, organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were investigated in both soil (top and deep soil) and air samples. The main pollutants in top soils at site are dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDTs, 0.05–104 mg/kg d.w., avg: 14.5 mg/kg d.w.) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB, 0.02–4.85 mg/kg d.w., avg: 0.72 mg/kg d.w.) which is in accordance with its production history. As for the deep soils, ΣOCPs at site were found concentrated at workshops especially the technical pesticide workshop (5.29–22.1 mg/kg d.w., avg: 9.15 mg/kg d.w.) and the history DDTs’ workshop (4.00–64.8 mg/kg d.w., avg: 20.4 mg/kg d.w). Around site, OCPs were mainly concentrated at layers of −20 cm and the −40 cm and decreased with distance being far away, at 5000 m, the ΣOCPs was comparable with normal agriculture soil (22.1−91.4 ng/g d.w., avg: 55.4 ng/g d.w.). ΣOCPs in the air samples ranged 64.6–823 ng/m³ (avg: 459 ng/m³) at site and 9.93–176 ng/m³ (avg: 50.8 ng/m³) around site which are all dominated with DDTs and HCHs. Soil–air exchange fugacity was calculated to judge the transportation of the OCPs and the results showed soils at the site and its nearby areas (within 5000 m) are releasing most of the OCPs into air, and accordingly through evaluation, inhalation was found to be the major source for human health risk, which is a great threat to the workers at site and the nearby residents.

     

Development of an empirical model for rainfall-induced hillside vulnerability assessment: a case study on Chen-Yu-Lan watershed,Nantou, Taiwan

In Taiwan, the hillside is about 70 % of total area. These areas also have steep topography and geological vulnerability. When an event of torrential rain comes during a typhoon, the landslide disasters usually occur at these areas due to the long duration and high intensity of rainfall. Therefore, a design which considers the potential landslide has become an important issue in Taiwan. In this study, a temporal characteristic of landslide fragility curve (LFC) was developed, based on the geomorphological and vegetation factors using landslides at the Chen-Yu-Lan watershed in Taiwan, during Typhoon Sinlaku (September 2008) and Typhoon Morakot (August 2009). This study addressed an effective landslide hazard assessment process, linking together the post-landslide damage and post-rainfall data for LFC model. The Kriging method was used to interpolate the rainfall indices (R ₀, R, I) for numerical analysis. Remote sensing data from SPOT images were applied to analyze the landslide ratio and vegetation conditions. The 40-m digital elevation model was used for slope variation analysis in the watershed, and the maximum likelihood estimate was conducted to determine the mean and standard deviation parameters of the proposed empirical LFC model. This empirical model can express the probability of exceeding a damage state for a certain classification (or conditions) of landslides by considering a specific hazard index for a given event. Finally, the vulnerability functions can be used to assess the loss from landslides, and, in the future, to manage the risk of debris flow in the watershed.     

江苏省锡山市西部地区地下水资源计算模型研究

从地下水运动均衡原理的角度分析江苏省锡山市西部地区第Ⅱ承压含水层天然和现状开采条件下的地下水均衡要素.揭示了该区地下水开采与地面沉降的关系,其中现状开采条件下的75%～80%的开采量来自于粘性土层的压密水量.根据地面沉降的发生机理剖析地面沉降严重发育地区忽略地面沉降影响因子建立的地下水资源计算模型中存在的问题针对存在的问题,提出了地下水可开采资源合理的计算方法,并对融有地面沉降影响因子的地下水资源计算模型的可实现性进行了分析.     

Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model

Land use and land cover (LULC) over Africa have changed substantially over the last 60 years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties of model simulated response in the African monsoon system and Sahel precipitation due to LULC change using a set of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Although the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature. The relationship between the model responses to LULC change and the climatologists of the control simulations is also examined. Simulations that are climatologically too dry or too wet compared to observations and reanalyses have weak response to land use change because they are in moisture or energy limited regimes respectively. The ones that lie in between have stronger response to the LULC changes, showing a more significant role in land–atmosphere interactions. Much of the change in precipitation is related to changes in circulation, particularly to the response of the intensity and latitudinal position of the African Easterly Jet, which varies with the changes in meridional surface temperature gradients. The study highlights the need for measurements of the surface fluxes across the meridional cross-section of the Sahel to evaluate models and thereby allowing human impacts such as land use change on the monsoon to be projected more realistically.     

A Lagrangian study of the near-surface intrusion of Pacific water into the South China Sea

Satellite-tracked Lagrangian drifters are used to investigate the transport pathways of near-surface water around the Luzon Strait. Particular attention is paid to the intrusion of Pacific water into the South China Sea(SCS).Results from drifter observations suggest that except for the Kuroshio water, other Pacific water that carried by zonal jets, Ekman currents or eddies, can also intrude into the SCS. Motivated by this origin problem of the intrusion water, numerous simulated trajectories are constructed by altimeter-based velocities. Quantitative estimates from simulated trajectories suggest that the contribution of other Pacific water to the total intrusion flux in the Luzon Strait is approximately 13% on average, much smaller than that of Kuroshio water. Even so, over multiple years and many individual intrusion events, the contribution from other Pacific water is quite considerable. The interannual signal in the intrusion flux of these Pacific water might be closely related to variations in a wintertime westward current and eddy activities east of the Luzon Strait. We also found that Ekman drift could significantly contribute to the intrusion of Pacific water and could affect the spreading of intrusion water in the SCS. A case study of an eddy-related intrusion is presented to show the detailed processes of the intrusion of Pacific water and the eddy-Kuroshio interaction.     

东亚夏季风降水和环流数值模拟对不同对流参数化方案的敏感性

A 5-level spectral AGCM (ImPKU-5LAGCM) is used to examine the sensitivity of the simulated results of the summer monsoon rainfall and circulation in East Asia to different cumulus parameterization schemes in the climatological-mean case and in the cases of weak and strong Asian summer monsoons,respectively. The results simulated with the Arakawa-Schubert＇s(hereafter A-S＇s), Kuo＇s and Manabe＇s cumulus parameterization schemes show that these simulated distributions of the summer monsoon rainfall and circulation in East Asia depend strongly on the cumulus parameterization schemes either in the climatological-mean case or in the cases of weak and strong Asian summer monsoons. From the simulated results, it might be shown that the Kuo scheme appears to be more suitable for the simulation of the summer monsoon rainfall and circulation in East Asia than the A-S scheme or the Manabe scheme, although the A-S scheme is somewhat better in the simulations of the tropical rainfall. This might be due to that the Kuo＇s cumulus parameterization scheme is able to reflect well the characteristics of rainfall cloud system in the East Asian summer monsoon region, where the rainfall system used to be a mixing of cumulus and stratus.