Risk acceptance criterion for tanker oil spill risk reduction measures

This paper is aimed at investigating whether there is ample support for the view that the acceptance criterion for evaluating measures for prevention of oil spills from tankers should be based on cost-effectiveness considerations. One such criterion can be reflected by the Cost of Averting a Tonne of oil Spilt (CATS) whereas its target value is updated by elaborating the inherent uncertainties of oil spill costs and establishing a value for the criterion’s assurance factor. To this end, a value of $80,000/t is proposed as a sensible CATS criterion and the proposed value for the assurance factor F = 1.5 is supported by the retrieved Protection and Indemnity (P&I) Clubs’ Annual Reports. It is envisaged that this criterion would allow the conversion of direct and indirect costs into a non-market value for the optimal allocation of resources between the various parties investing in shipping. A review of previous cost estimation models on oil spills is presented and a probability distribution (log-normal) is fitted on the available oil spill cost data, where it should be made abundantly clear that the mean value of the distribution is used for deriving the updated CATS criterion value. However, the difference between the initial and the updated CATS criterion in the percentiles of the distribution is small. It is found through the current analysis that results are partly lower than the predicted values from the published estimation models. The costs are also found to depend on the type of accident, which is in agreement with the results of previous studies. Other proposals on acceptance criteria are reviewed and it is asserted that the CATS criterion can be considered as the best candidate. Evidence is provided that the CATS approach is practical and meaningful by including examples of successful applications in actual risk assessments. Finally, it is suggested that the criterion may be refined subject to more readily available cost data and experience gained from future decisions.     

Dolomite Controls on Phanerozoic Seawater Chemistry

We investigate the potential role of dolomite as a long-term buffer on Phanerozoic seawater composition. Using a comprehensive model of Phanerozoic geochemical cycling, we show how variations in the formation rate of sedimentary marine dolomite have buffered seawater saturation state. The total inventory of inorganic carbon reflects the sum of fluxes derived from continental weathering, basalt-seawater exchange, alumino-silicate diagenesis (reverse weathering), and global deposition of calcium carbonate. Although these fluxes are approximately balanced, model results indicate that seawater saturation state is sensitive to the marine dolomite depositional flux. This conclusion is consistent with and constrained by independent proxy data for seawater ion ratios, paleo-atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and paleo-pH data, and dolomite mass-age distribution through Phanerozoic time. Abundant research indicates that dolomite’s occurrence in marine sediments is sensitive to many factors: temperature, seawater composition, paleogeographic setting, continental organization, etc. Although the complexity of the process of dolomite formation prevents a complete understanding of the relative role of these factors, our model results clearly underscore the importance of this mineral in the chemical history of Phanerozoic seawater.     

Computations with finite element methods for the Brinkman problem

Various finite element families for the Brinkman flow (or Stokes–Darcy flow) are tested numerically. Particularly, the effect of small permeability is studied. The tested finite elements are the MINI element, the Taylor–Hood element, and the stabilized equal order methods. The numerical tests include both a priori analysis and adaptive methods.     

The Cenozoic western Svalbard margin: sediment geometry and sedimentary processes in an area of ultraslow oceanic spreading

The northeastern high-latitude North Atlantic is characterised by the Bellsund and Isfjorden fans on the continental slope off west Svalbard, the asymmetrical ultraslow Knipovich spreading ridge and a 1,000 m deep rift valley. Recently collected multichannel seismic profiles and bathymetric records now provide a more complete picture of sedimentary processes and depositional environments within this region. Both downslope and alongslope sedimentary processes are identified in the study area. Turbidity currents and deposition of glacigenic debris flows are the dominating downslope processes, whereas mass failures, which are a common process on glaciated margins, appear to have been less significant. The slide debrite observed on the Bellsund Fan is most likely related to a 2.5–1.7 Ma old failure on the northwestern Barents Sea margin. The seismic records further reveal that alongslope current processes played a major role in shaping the sediment packages in the study area. Within the Knipovich rift valley and at the western rift flank accumulations as thick as 950–1,000 m are deposited. We note that oceanic basement is locally exposed within the rift valley, and that seismostratigraphic relationships indicate that fault activity along the eastern rift flank lasted until at least as recently as 1.5 Ma. A purely hemipelagic origin of the sediments in the rift valley and on the western rift flank is unlikely. We suggest that these sediments, partly, have been sourced from the western Svalbard—northwestern Barents Sea margin and into the Knipovich Ridge rift valley before continuous spreading and tectonic activity caused the sediments to be transported out of the valley and westward.     

Traffic-related immissions and their impact on historic buildings: implications from a pilot study at two German cities

Besides the enormous improvement of air quality in Germany due to the reduction of sulphur dioxide emissions in the last decades, high immissions of nitrogen oxides and fine particulate matter are frequently observed at traffic-rich urban sites. The changed chemical composition of air pollution requires a new investigation of its impact on historic buildings constructed of natural stone. In a pilot study a multi-disciplinary approach was chosen to obtain information on the actual pollution situation of historic buildings and monuments at traffic hotspots in Germany. The study concentrated on the two German cities of Munich and Mainz of different size, traffic volume and stone inventory. Dose–response functions were calculated to demonstrate the change of impact of different pollutants over the last three decades, and for comparison of traffic hotspots and housing areas of both cities. Numeric modelling on a city-scale was used to identify the historic buildings and monuments affected by elevated traffic immissions. Because a relevant part of these pollutants is dominated by short-range transport, the differences of wind speed and deposition rates were calculated using a street-scale 3D flow and dispersion model regarding traffic volume, wind regime and adjacent buildings. Finally, particulate matter was sampled at different positions of two buildings heavily exposed to traffic emissions. Individual particles were investigated by environmental scanning electron microscopy. After classification of the particles into different chemical groups, the fraction of traffic-induced particulate matter was quantified. Summarizing the results, it must be stated that soiling by traffic-related particulate matter, deposition of nitrates deriving from exhaust emission and other diffusely emitted components bear a severe damage potential for natural building stone at least locally at traffic-rich urban sites.     

The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence

Abstract

The magnitudes of the largest known floods of the River Rhine in Basel since 1268 were assessed using a hydraulic model drawing on a set of pre-instrumental evidence and daily hydrological measurements from 1808. The pre-instrumental evidence, consisting of flood marks and documentary data describing extreme events with the customary reference to specific landmarks, was “calibrated” by comparing it with the instrumental series for the overlapping period between the two categories of evidence (1808–1900). Summer (JJA) floods were particularly frequent in the century between 1651–1750, when precipitation was also high. Severe winter (DJF) floods have not occurred since the late 19th century despite a significant increase in winter precipitation. Six catastrophic events involving a runoff greater than 6000 m ³ s^‐1 are documented prior to 1700. They were initiated by spells of torrential rainfall of up to 72 h (1480 event) and preceded by long periods of substantial precipitation that saturated the soils, and/or by abundant snowmelt. All except two (1999 and 2007) of the 43 identified severe events (SEs: defined as having runoff > 5000 and < 6000 m ³ s ^‐1) occurred prior to 1877. Not a single SE is documented from 1877 to 1998. The intermediate 121-year-long “flood disaster gap” is unique over the period since 1268. The effect of river regulations (1714 for the River Kander; 1877 for the River Aare) and the building of reservoirs in the 20th century upon peak runoff were investigated using a one-dimensional hydraulic flood-routing model. Results show that anthropogenic effects only partially account for the “flood disaster gap” suggesting that variations in climate should also be taken into account in explaining these features.

Citation Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Weingartner, R., Luterbacher, J., Reist, T., & Trösch, J. (2011) The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 733–758.     

CODE’s five-system orbit and clock solution—the challenges of multi-GNSS data analysis

This article describes the processing strategy and the validation results of CODE’s MGEX (COM) orbit and satellite clock solution, including the satellite systems GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, BeiDou, and QZSS. The validation with orbit misclosures and SLR residuals shows that the orbits of the new systems Galileo, BeiDou, and QZSS are affected by modelling deficiencies with impact on the orbit scale (e.g., antenna calibration, Earth albedo, and transmitter antenna thrust). Another weakness is the attitude and solar radiation pressure (SRP) modelling of satellites moving in the orbit normal mode—which is not yet correctly considered in the COM solution. Due to these issues, we consider the current state COM solution as preliminary. We, however, use the long-time series of COM products for identifying the challenges and for the assessment of model-improvements. The latter is demonstrated on the example of the solar radiation pressure (SRP) model, which has been replaced by a more generalized model. The SLR validation shows that the new SRP model significantly improves the orbit determination of Galileo and QZSS satellites at times when the satellite’s attitude is maintained by yaw-steering. The impact of this orbit improvement is also visible in the estimated satellite clocks—demonstrating the potential use of the new generation satellite clocks for orbit validation. Finally, we point out further challenges and open issues affecting multi-GNSS data processing that deserves dedicated studies.     

Between carbonatite and lamproite—Diamondiferous Torngat ultramafic lamprophyres formed by carbonate-fluxed melting of cratonic MARID-type metasomes

New U-Pb perovskite ages reveal that diamondiferous ultramafic lamprophyre magmas erupted through the Archean crust of northern Labrador and Quebec (eastern Canada) between ca. 610 and 565 Ma, a period of strong rifting activity throughout contiguous Laurentia and Baltica. The observed Torngat carbonate-rich aillikite/carbonatite and carbonate-poor mela-aillikite dyke varieties show a large spread in Sr-Nd-Hf-Pb isotope ratios with pronounced correlations between isotope systems. An isotopically depleted component is identified solely within aillikites (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i = 0.70323-0.70377; εNd_i = +1.2-+1.8; εHf_i = +1.4-+3.5; ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb_i = 18.2-18.5), whereas some aillikites and all mela-aillikites range to more enriched isotope signatures (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i = 0.70388-0.70523; εNd_i = −0.5 to −3.9; εHf_i = −0.6 to −6.0; ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb_i = 17.8-18.2). These contrasting isotopic characteristics of aillikites/carbonatites and mela-aillikites, along with subtle differences in their modal carbonate, SiO₂, Al₂O₃, Na₂O, Cs-Rb, and Zr-Hf contents, are consistent with two distinctive metasomatic assemblages of different age in the mantle magma source region.Integration of petrologic, geochemical, and isotopic information leads us to propose that the isotopically enriched component originated from a reduced phlogopite-richterite-Ti-oxide dominated source assemblage that is reminiscent of MARID suite xenoliths. In contrast, the isotopically depleted component was derived from a more oxidized phlogopite-carbonate dominated source assemblage. We argue that low-degree CO₂-rich potassic silicate melts from the convective upper mantle were preferentially channelled into an older, pre-existing MARID-type vein network at the base of the North Atlantic craton lithosphere, where they froze to form new phlogopite-carbonate dominated veins. Continued stretching and thinning of the cratonic lithosphere during the Late Neoproterozoic remobilized the carbonate-rich vein material and induced volatile-fluxed fusion of the MARID-type veins and the cold peridotite substrate. Isotopic modelling suggests that only 5-12% trace element contribution from such geochemically extreme MARID-type material is required to produce the observed compositional shift from the isotopically most depleted aillikites/carbonatites towards enriched mela-aillikites.We conclude that cold cratonic mantle lithosphere can host several generations of contrasting vein assemblages, and that each may have formed during past tectonic and magmatic events under distinctively different physicochemical conditions. Although cratonic MARID-type and carbonate-bearing veins in peridotite can be the respective sources for lamproite and carbonatite magmas when present as the sole metasome, their concomitant fusion in a complex source region may give rise to a whole new variety of deep volatile-rich magmas and we suggest that orangeites (formerly Group 2 kimberlites), kamafugites, and certain types of ultramafic lamprophyre are formed in this manner.     

Evaluating Topological Queries in Linked Data Using DBpedia and GeoNames in Switzerland and Scotland

This article explores the practicability and assesses the quality of searches for Wikipedia pages of topologically related administrative divisions in Switzerland and Scotland via Linked Data. To this end, the quality of searches in the English and German versions of DBpedia is compared, as is that of searches in GeoNames and DBpedia using DBpedia's links to GeoNames or a manually created list of links. In addition, the effects of updates to Swiss municipality borders in the English version of DBpedia on standard quality metrics are studied. It turns out that live searches are practicable with acceptable performance, but that the quality of searches in terms of recall and precision is acceptable only if DBpedia is queried via GeoNames and DBpedia's links to GeoNames are replaced by manually created links. Searches for Scottish unitary authority wards perform poorly for all approaches investigated. Recall and precision are strongly influenced by changes in municipality borders, with a relatively long latency suggesting that, at least in some cases, administrative changes propagate slowly into DBpedia. These results have important implications for those seeking to use location as a means to link data.     

When timing matters-considering changing temporal structures in runoff response surfaces

Scenario-neutral response surfaces illustrate the sensitivity of a simulated natural system, represented by a specific impact variable, to systematic perturbations of climatic parameters. This type of approach has recently been developed as an alternative to top-down approaches for the assessment of climate change impacts. A major limitation of this approach is the underrepresentation of changes in the temporal structure of the climate input data (i.e., the seasonal and day-to-day variability) since this is not altered by the perturbation. This paper presents a framework that aims to examine this limitation by perturbing both observed and projected climate data time series for a future period, which both serve as input into a hydrological model (the HBV model). The resulting multiple response surfaces are compared at a common domain, the standardized runoff response surface (SRRS). We apply this approach in a case study catchment in Norway to (i) analyze possible changes in mean and extreme runoff and (ii) quantify the influence of changes in the temporal structure represented by 17 different climate input sets using linear mixed-effect models. Results suggest that climate change induced increases in mean and peak flow runoff and only small changes in low flow. They further suggest that the effect of the different temporal structures of the climate input data considerably affects low flows and floods (at least 21% influence), while it is negligible for mean runoff.