Data assimilation with a barotropically unstable shallow water system using representer algorithms

The cycling representer algorithm of Xu and Daley (2000) is a weak constraint four-dimensional variational data assimilation algorithm. It was successfully applied to a one-dimensional transport problem and was able to successfully extract the signal from noisy and sparse observations. The algorithm, however, has not previously been applied to a multivariate, multidimensional system with dynamic instability. The algorithm is also very computationally demanding and awaits considerable enhancement in computer power before being practical for operational forecast models. We have two objectives in this paper. The first is to apply the cycling representer algorithm to a two-dimensional, multivariate barotropically unstable linear shallow water system. The second objective is to formulate and test an accelerated representer algorithm that is much more computationally tractable than the cycling representer algorithm itself. A linear shallow water system with a barotropically unstable basic state was used as a test bed to conduct data assimilation experiments. The evolution of a 'neutral' eastward-propagating singular vector was selected as the 'truth', against which all data assimilation experiments were to be evaluated. The results indicated that the cycling representer algorithm was capable of providing satisfying state estimates for a multivariate, multidimensional system. The results from the accelerated representer algorithm were very encouraging because it is sufficiently computationally tractable to be used on present day multi-processor machines for operational applications.     

A powder neutron diffraction study of the crystal structure of the fluoroperovskite NaMgF<Subscript>3</Subscript> (neighborite) from 300 to 3.6 K

The cell dimensions and crystal structures of the fluoroperovskite NaMgF₃ (neighborite), synthesized by solid state methods, have been determined by powder neutron diffraction and Rietveld refinement over the temperature range 300–3.6 K using Pt metal as an internal standard for calibration of the neutron wavelength. These data show that Pbnm NaMgF₃ does not undergo any phase transitions to structures of lower symmetry with decreasing temperature. The cell dimensions and atomic coordinates together with polyhedron volumes and distortion indices are given for Pbnm NaMgF₃ at 25 K intervals from 300 to 3.6 K. Decreases in the a and c cell dimensions reach a saturation point at 50 K, whereas the b dimension becomes saturated at 150 K. The distortion of the structure of Pbnm NaMgF₃ from the aristotype cubic structure is described in terms of the tilting of the MgF₆ octahedra according to the tilt scheme a ⁻ a ⁻ c ⁺ . With decreasing temperature the antiphase tilt (a ⁻) increases from 14.24° to 15.39°, whereas the in-phase tilt (c ⁺ ) remains effectively constant at ∼10.7°. Changes in the tilt angles are insufficient to cause changes in the coordination sphere of Na that might induce a low temperature phase transition. The structure of Pbnm NaMgF₃ is also described in terms of normal mode analysis and displacements of the condensed normal modes are compared with those of Pbnm KCaF₃.     

Short‐term forecasting with a multi‐level spectral primitive equation model part I ‐ model formulation

A global baroclinic primitive equation model using the spectral technique has been constructed for short‐ and medium‐range numerical weather prediction. The spectral technique, which is a special case of the Galerkin method, employs spherical harmonic basis functions in the evaluation of all horizontal derivatives. The use of a transform technique allows all the horizontal operations to be performed efficiently and allows physical processes to be evaluated in real space. The model employs a semi‐implicit algorithm for time integration and finite differencing in the vertical. Physical processes include orography, moist convection, large scale precipitation and boundary layer processes.     

Statistical-dynamical downscaling of wind roses over the Czech Republic

The present study describes a new method for statistical-dynamical downscaling that combines two different approaches, namely, a set of patterns simulated with a numerical flow model and a transformation function used to process both calculated data and measurements at a reference station. The combined method produces wind roses and wind speed histograms at an arbitrary location in the model domain. The inflow wind direction represented the key parameter to define a set of wind field simulations. The other two inflow parameters, namely, thermal stratification and geostrophic wind speed, were derived from corresponding averaged soundings. The results showed that in the Czech Republic, there are areas where wind roses are deformed by the surrounding terrain. The deformations occur in relatively shallow and wide valleys, and they are more sensitive to the inflow wind direction. Calculated wind roses are compared to corresponding observations at 22 synoptic stations. The most frequent wind direction sector in simulations agreed with measurements at 17 stations. The resulting error in frequency in that sector was under 5 % at 10 stations. In general, the main features of the wind roses are modelled well, even at a relatively large distance from the reference station. However, better performance was achieved for smaller distances between reference station and the site. In further studies, a more extensive set of flow patterns with reduced intervals of thermal stratification and wind speed will likely improve calculated wind roses.     

Enhancing the value of adaptation reporting as a driver for action: lessons from the UK

ABSTRACT

As increasing evidence shows that the risks of climate change are mounting, there is a call for further climate action (both reducing global emissions, and adaptation to better manage the risks of climate change). To promote and enable adaptation, governments have introduced, or are considering introducing, reporting on climate risks and efforts being taken to address those risks. This paper reports on an analysis of the first two rounds of such reports submitted under the UK Climate Change Act (2008) Adaptation Reporting Power. It highlights benefits and challenges for reporting authorities and policymakers receiving the reports that could also inform other countries considering such reporting. For reporting authorities, benefits arise from the reporting process and resulting reports. These benefits include elevating climate risks and adaptation to the corporate level and with stakeholders, alongside facilitating alignment and integration of actions within existing risk management and governance structures. For policymakers, reporting provides enhanced understanding of climate risks and actions from a bottom-up perspective that can be integrated into national-level assessments and adaptation planning processes. The identified challenges are those related to capacity and process. These include limited risk and adaptation assessment capacities; relevance of climate change risks and adaptation in the context of other urgent risks and actions; reporting process effectiveness and robustness; and the provision of effective and sufficiently comprehensive support, including feedback.

Key policy insights

• Effective adaptation reporting needs to be designed and delivered so as to enhance the value of the reporting process and resulting reports both for those reporting and those receiving the reports, as well as from the broader policy perspective.

• Providing a positive and supportive reporting environment is critical to encourage participation and facilitating contiuous learning and improvement, while also facilitating delivery of policy-relevant adaptation reports.

• Contributions of adaptation reporting can be enhanced by an inclusive reporting requirement involving a broader organizational mix that enables more effective risk management and reporting that reflects associated (inter)dependencies and consistency with the more comprehensive post-2015 resilience agenda (Paris Agreement, Sendai Framework for DRR and UN Agenda 2030 SDGs).

     

REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN DENOMINATIONAL SWITCHING AMONG WHITE PROTESTANTS*

This study examines the hypothesis that the determinants of denominational switching vary regionally among white American Protestants. Data for the analysis are taken from the National Opinion Research Center's General Social Survey for 1974 through 1984. Using logistic regression, the analysis compares the determinants of switching among respondents residing in the nine Census regions of the U.S. Results reveal significant regional differences in the determinants of switching, especially in the effects of conversion, childhood affiliation and interdenominational marriage.     

The frequency of wide binaries among the southern barium stars

Summary All of the barium and marginal barium stars in the 1972 MacConnell, Frey, and Upgren (1972: MFU) list of such objects which are located south of the celestial equator were examined for visual duplicity. Over 200 objects were observed, and a total of six possible candidates for wide pair visual binaries were found. Of these, four are most likely optical in nature. These data suggest that the incidence of wide binaries among barium stars is of the order of 1%.     

Unified 3D critical state bounding-surface plasticity model for soils incorporating continuous plastic loading under cyclic paths. Part I: Constitutive relations

The unified three-dimensional (3D) critical state bounding-surface plasticity model gUTS enables clays, silts and sands to be treated within a single framework. Furthermore, loose and dense states of a particular soil subjected to a wide range of confinements are viewed as a single material defined by the same set of constants. The model is able to handle both monotonic and complex cyclic paths including those involving a rotation of the principal stress directions. The model incorporates the following features: combined use of radial and deviatoric mapping rules and the use of an apparent normal consolidation line for sands; use of a non-associated flow rule where the ratio of the rates of volumetric plastic strain to deviatoric plastic strain is a function only of the ratio of deviatoric to mean effective stresses and the Lode angle; adoption of a bi-linear critical state line projected onto the plane of the void ratio versus logarithm of mean effective stress; inclusion of a sub-elliptic, or super-elliptic, segment in the plastic dilatancy surface for stress ratios less than critical; use of elliptic segments in the deviatoric planes; movement of the projection centre in the deviatoric mapping region and incorporation of a plastic stiffening effect for cyclic paths which repeatedly load in the same deviatoric direction.