Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

The re-analysis of the ROSAT data of Nova Mus 1983 using white dwarf atmosphere emission models

The analyses of X-ray emission from classical novae during the outburst stage have shown that the soft X-ray emission below 1 keV, which is thought to originate from the photosphere of the white dwarf, is inconsistent with the simple blackbody model of emission. Thus, ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC) archival data of the classical Nova Mus 1983 (GQ Mus) have been re-analysed in order to understand the spectral development in the X-ray wavelengths during the outburst stage. The X-ray spectra are fitted with the hot white dwarf (WD) atmosphere emission models developed for the remnants of classical novae near the Eddington luminosity. The post-outburst X-ray spectra of the remnant white dwarf are examined in the context of evolution on the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram using C–O enhanced atmosphere models. The data obtained in 1991 August (during the ROSAT All Sky Survey) indicate that the effective temperature is         . The 1992 February data show that the white dwarf had reached an effective temperature in the range         with an unabsorbed X-ray flux (i.e. ∼ bolometric flux) between     and     . We show that the H burning at the surface of the WD had most likely ceased at the time of the X-ray observations. Only the 1991 August data show evidence for ongoing H burning.     

The build-up of haloes within Press–Schechter theory

Modelling the build-up of haloes is important for linking the formation of galaxies with cosmological models. A simple model of halo growth is provided by Press–Schechter (PS) theory, where the initial field of density fluctuations is smoothed using spherically symmetric filters centred on a given position to obtain information about the likelihood of later collapse on varying scales. In this paper the predicted halo mass growth is compared for three filter shapes: Gaussian, top-hat and sharp k -space. Preliminary work is also presented analysing the build-up of haloes within numerical simulations using a friends-of-friends group finder. The best-fit to the simulation mass function was obtained using PS theory with a top-hat filter. By comparing both the backwards conditional mass function, which gives the distribution of halo progenitors, and the distribution of halo mergers in time, the build-up of haloes in the simulations is shown to be better fitted by PS theory with a sharp k -space filter. This strengthens previous work, which also found the build-up of haloes in simulations to be well matched to PS theory with a sharp k -space filter by providing a direct comparison of different filters and by extending the statistical tools used to analyse halo mass growth. The usefulness of this work is illustrated by showing that the cosmological evolution in the proportion of haloes that have undergone recent merger is predicted to be independent of mass and power spectrum and to only depend upon cosmology. Recent results from observations of field galaxies are shown to match the evolution expected, but are not sufficiently accurate to distinguish usefully between cosmological parameters.     

Grain boundary diffusion in enstatite

We have investigated grain boundary diffusion rates in enstatite by heating single crystals of quartz packed in powdered San Carlos olivine (Mg_0.90Fe_0.10)₂SiO₄ at controlled oxygen fugacities in the range 10^?5.7 to 10^?8.7?atm and temperatures from 1350° to 1450?°C for times from 5 to 100?h at 1?atm total pressure. Following the experiments, the thickness of the coherent polycrystalline reaction rim of pyroxene that had formed between the quartz and olivine was measured using backscatter scanning imaging in the electron microprobe. Quantitative microprobe analysis indicated that the composition of this reaction phase is (Mg_0.92Fe_0.08)₂Si₂O₆. The rate of growth of the pyroxene increases with increasing temperature, is independent of the oxygen fugacity, and is consistent with a parabolic rate law, indicating that the growth rate is controlled by ionic diffusion through the pyroxene rim. Microstructural observations and platinum marker experiments suggest that the reaction phase is formed at the olivine-pyroxene interface, and is therefore controlled by the diffusion of silicon and oxygen. The parabolic rate constants determined from the experiments were analyzed in terms of the oxide activity gradient across the rim to yield mean effective diffusivities for the rate-limiting ionic species, assuming bulk transport through the pyroxene layer. These effective diffusivities are faster than the lattice diffusivities for the slowest species (silicon) calculated from creep experiments, but slower than measured lattice diffusivities for oxygen in enstatite. Thus, silicon grain boundary diffusion is most likely to be the rate-limiting process in the growth of the pyroxene rims. Also, as oxygen transport through the pyroxene rims must be faster than silicon transport, diffusion of oxygen along the grain boundaries must be faster than through the lattice. The grain boundary diffusivity for silicon in orthopyroxenite is then given by D¯gbSiδ=(3.3±3.0)×10^?9f0.0O₂e^?400±65/RT?m³s^?1, where the activation energy for diffusion is in kJ/mol, and δ is the grain boundary width in m. Calculated growth rates for enstatite under these conditions are significantly slower than predicted by an extrapolation from similar experiments performed at 1000?°C under high pressure (hydrous) conditions by Yund and Tullis (1992), perhaps due to water-enhancement of diffusion in their experiments.     

Solid bitumens: an assessment of their characteristics, genesis, and role in geological processes

Familiar since antiquity, and subject in contemporary times to various characterization schemes, the exact nature of solid bitumen is not yet fully known. Bitumens have ‘random polymer-like’ molecular structures, are mobile as highly viscous fluids or were once fluids but have since turned into solids. Solid bitumens consist mainly of large moieties, of polyclyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, occasionally with finely admixed, fine-grained cryptocrystalline graphite. Solid bitumens are distinguished from kerogen, which is the syngenetic and generally finely dispersed particulate organic matter in sedimentary rock that virtually does not migrate following its deposition. Occurrences of solid bitumens are relevant to petroleum exploration as well as the search for, and evaluation of, a variety of metallic mineral deposits. Genesis of bitumen is in many cases linked to the thermal and hydrothermal history of organic matter in sedimentary rock. Apparently bitumen, or more specifically organic acids generated along with bitumen during diagenesis, may alter porosity of reservoir rocks or otherwise prepare the ground for ore deposition. Bitumen is also relatively sensitive to alteration processes, some of which, such as oxidative weathering, water leaching, biodegradation (contact) metamorphism and ionizing radiation may likewise affect its nature. Elemental composition of bitumen commonly reflects the nature of mineral deposits. Is is possible that in petroleum exploration, trace metal abundances of bitumen may eventually allow prediction of crude oil types and volumes anticipated from a given source rock? Beside transition elements, notably Ni and V, highly anomalous concentrations of U, Pt and Au occur in some solid bitumens. During the generation of petroleum from kerogen, the trend in δ¹³C is toward lighter values. The opposite seems to occur when liquid petroleum is subjected to thermal cracking (and /or related processes) yielding solid bitumen enriched in ¹³C, and isotopically light methane. In fact, except for deasphalting and possibly some irradiation processes, the result of thermal cracking, oxidation, water leaching, inspissation (drying) and bacterial degradation of crude oil is that lower molecular weight hydrocarbons are removed leaving bitumen residues enriched in aromatic hydrocarbons, heteroatomic compounds (NSO) and ¹³C. Such phenomena are relevant to bitumen paragenesis in petroleum reservoir rocks, to certain Phanerozoic occurrences of multiple generations of bitumens, and to bitumens in mineral deposits.     

Historical Changes in the Flood Hazard at Khartoum, Sudan: Lessons and Warnings for the Future

The 1988 floods at Khartoum were frequently described as "unprecedented". However, an examination of evidence for floods caused by the Nile and rain storms during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries leads to the conclusion that neither the Nile flood nor the rain storms nor their coincidence in one season were unprecedented and that similar situations will recur.We argue that most problems were created by complacency, lack of planning and mismanagement. We conclude with some simple suggestions for flood amelioration in the future and warn that complacency is the single most important phenomenon likely to recur to the detriment of Greater Khartoum in the future.     

Equilibria and stability of the restricted photogravitational problem of 2 + 2 bodies

The restricted problem of 2 + 2 bodies when one of the infinitesimal masses is further acted upon by the light pressure of the two primaries, is considered. The stationary solutions of this problem are found out. A short discussion is devoted to the stability of these solutions.     

Perspectives of the ROT 54/32/2.6 in astronomy

Perspectives for the Radio-Optical Telescope 54/32/2.6 are given for scientific research in radioastronomy. Its characteristics and potential scientific fields are summarized in the frame of the present French-Armenian collaboration. A 3-phase upgrade plan including a detailed technical evaluation of the antenna is presented.Published in Astrofizika, Vol. 38, No. 4, pp. 645–648, October–December, 1995.