Uncertainty in the application of the parabolic bay shape equation: Part 2

This paper attempts to highlight issues that are relevant in the application of the Parabolic Bay Shape Equation (PBSE) to a non-equilibrium bay. For this case, the bay of Imbituba in southern Brazil was chosen. The construction of a breakwater to shelter the port of Imbituba in the south of the bay was accompanied by an increase in sedimentation to the port area from an eroding downdrift beach. Superimposed plots of the coastline of the Bay of Imbituba from different years confirm a general trend of accretion of the southern part of the bay accompanied with a retreat of the coastline in the northern part. After the application of the PBSE it became clear that the breakwater caused a change in the equilibrium state of the bay. Between 1947 and 2001 the Bay of Imbituba has changed from a dynamic equilibrium to a natural beach reshaping or self-reshaping. The tendency of the sedimentation of the southern part of the bay can be explained by the SEP associated with the new updrift diffraction point (tip of the breakwater): The seaward position of the SEP predicts a need for additional sediment in order to achieve a stable plan form.     

Late Pan-African magmatism and crustal development in northeastern Egypt

The voluminous Pan-African calc-alkaline granitic suite of the Ras Gharib crustal segment in northeastern Eygpt provides a typical example of orogenic magmatism. The 552 ± 7 Ma-old granodiorite–adamellite and leucogranite suite is compositionally broad (58 to 77 wt.% SiO₂) and exhibits calc-alkaline geochemical trends and trace-element characteristics typical of the volcanic-arc granites. The rocks contain oligoclase, albite, K-feldspar, calcic amphibole, biotite, titanite, zircon, and magnetite. The suite exhibits typical features characteristic of I-type granites. We contend that the magma was formed by partial melting of a modified oceanic crust at an active continental margin during the late stage of the Pan-African orogeny. The process may have involved assimilation of Early Pan-African dioritic country rocks. The more felsic units were produced by progressive fractionation of that magma. The petrological–geochemical evidence suggest that the Pan-African crust in northeastern Egypt did not develop in an extensional tectonic regime, as proposed recently.     

Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.     

Annual estimates of water and solute export from 42 tributaries to the Yukon River

Annual export of 11 major and trace solutes for the Yukon River is found to be accurately determined based on summing 42 tributary contributions. These findings provide the first published estimates of tributary specific distribution of solutes within the Yukon River basin. First, we show that annual discharge of the Yukon River can be computed by summing calculated annual discharges from 42 tributaries. Annual discharge for the tributaries is calculated from the basin area and average annual precipitation over that area using a previously published regional regression equation. Based on tributary inputs, we estimate an average annual discharge for the Yukon River of 210 km³ year^–1. This value is within 1% of the average measured annual discharge at the U.S. Geological Survey gaging station near the river terminus at Pilot Station, AK, for water years 2001 through 2005. Next, annual loads for 11 solutes are determined by combining annual discharge with point measurements of solute concentrations in tributary river water. Based on the sum of solutes in tributary water, we find that the Yukon River discharges approximately 33 million metric tons of dissolved solids each year at Pilot Station. Discharged solutes are dominated by cations calcium and magnesium (5.65 × 10⁹ and 1.42 × 10⁹ g year^–1) and anions bicarbonate and sulphate (17.3 × 10⁹ and 5.40 × 10⁹ g year^–1). These loads compare well with loads calculated independently at the three continuous gaging stations along the Yukon River. These findings show how annual solute yields vary throughout a major subarctic river basin and that accurate estimates of total river export can be determined from calculated tributary contributions. Copyright © 2011. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework—Applications in the water sector

Previous climate risk assessments provide important methodological insights into how to derive tractable research questions and the appropriate use of data under uncertainty, as well as identifying steps that benefit from stakeholder involvement. Here we propose the use of a framework for the systematic and objective exploration of climate risk assessments. The matrix facilitates a breakdown of information about aim and context, main results, methodological choices, stakeholder involvement, sources and characteristics of uncertainties and overall weaknesses. We then apply the matrix to three risk assessments in the water sector to explore some methodological strengths and weaknesses of approaches strongly linked to climate model outputs (top-down) versus those that originate from local knowledge of climate exposures (bottom-up), and demonstrate that closer integration with social and physical sciences is more likely to yield robust climate risk assessments.     

Secondary production within a seagrass bed (Zostera marina andRuppia maritima) in lower Chesapeake Bay

Monthly sampling of a 140-ha seagrass bed in the lower Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, revealed that 13 numerically and trophically important species, representing about 20% of the total community densities over the year-long study period, accounted for the production of ≈42 g dry wt m^?2 yr^?1. This estimate is likely conservative due to our assumptions on voltinism and fixed size at maturity regardless of season for the species studied. The isopodErichsonella attenuata accounted for 17.6 g dry wt m^?2 yr^?1 or 42% of the calculated total production, while the portunid decapodCallinectes sapidus and the amphipodGammarus mucronatus each accounted for 7.7 g dry wt m^?2 yr^?1. The 10 remaining species (4 peracarids, 4 molluscs, and 2 decapods) each produced less than 2 g dry wt m^?2 yr^?1. Total seagrass-associated secondary production was estimated to equal or exceed 200 g dry wt m^?2yr^?1. By applying this estimate to the entire 140-ha grassbed, we projected that, on average, 4.8 metric tons dry wt of invertebrate standing stock and 55.9 metric tons of invertebrate production occur over the year.     

Anatomy of a continental subduction zone: The main mantle thrust in Northern Pakistan

The Himalayas form an ideal natural laboratory to study the deformation processes of continental crust during collision orogeny. New information is presented concerning the structural evolution of the Main Mantle thrust zone in the Himalayas of N Pakistan, in the region around Nanga Parbat. The hanging-wall lies at relatively high levels within the Kohistan arc terrane which has been emplaced onto Indian continental rocks. This thrust probably originated as a breakback structure in the hanging-wall to the pre-collisional (oceanic) subduction zone. The present hanging-wall contains a shear zone of about 1 km width developed under amphibolite facies conditions. Simple shear dominant strains have developed new fabrics parallel to the main thrust zone. However, these structures are redeformed by discrete extensional and compressional shears within about 100 m of the thrust contact, again developed under amphibolite facies conditions. The footwall consists of an old basement complex (the Nanga Parbat gneisses) overlain by a distinct suite of metasediments now at amphibolite facies. This cover assemblage of psammites, pelites and marbles with local metabasites consistently lies directly against rocks derived from the Kohistan arc along the MMT. The absence of structures suggestive of consistent rheological contrasts within the cover assemblages suggests that the vast majority of the deformation features they contain were developed only once they experienced substantial tectonic overburdens. Prior to this the Indian cover rocks will have been »passively« subducted beneath the Kohistan arc until into amphibolite facies. We discuss these inferences in terms of evolving shear zone width with time and comment on the implications for predicting the character of mid-deep crustal shear zones, particularly from seismic reflection profiles.

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Zusammenfassung Der Himalaya bildet ein ideales, natrliches Laboratorium für Untersuchungen von Deformationsprozessen in kontinentalen Krustengesteinen während der Kollision bzw. Orogenese. Hier werden neue Daten vorgelegt, die sich mit der strukturellen Entwicklung der Hauptmantelüberschiebung im Himalaya von Nordpakistan im Gebiet um den Nanga Parbat befassen. Die Hangendeinheiten oberhalb der Störung liegen in einem relativ hohen Niveau innerhalb des »Kohistan arc terrane«, das auf die indischen Kontinentalgesteine überschoben wurde. Diese Überschiebung entstand wahrscheinlich als Rücküberschiebungsstruktur im Hangenden der Subduktionszone vor der Kollision. Im Hangenden befindet sich eine ca. 1 km breite Scherzone, die sich unter amphibolitfaziellen Bedingungen gebildet hat. Die durch »simple shear« erzeugten Deformationen sind mit ihren neuen Gefügen parallel zur Hauptüberschiebungszone ausgerichtet. Die Gefüge wurden nachfolgend von Extensionsund Kompressionsbewegungen im Bereich von ca. 100 m um den Überschiebungskontakt erneut unter amphibolitfaziellen Bedingungen erfaßt und deformiert. Das Liegende der Hauptüberschiebung besteht aus einem alten Basementkomplex (den Nanga Parbat Gneisen), die von deutlich abgesetzten, amphibolitfaziellen Metasedimenten überlagert werden. Diese Sedimenthülle bestehend aus Psammiten, Peliten und Marmoren mit lokalen Metabasiten stößt entlang der MMT direkt gegen die Gesteine des Kohistanbogens. Das Fehlen von Strukturen, die auf gleichbleibende rheologische Unterschiede hinweisen würde, läßt vermuten, daß der Großteil der in ihnen enthaltenen Deformationsgefüge auf einmal während beträchtlicher tektonischer Auflast entstanden ist. Vorher wurden die indischen Hüllgesteine »passiv« unter den Kohistanbogen bis in den Bereich der Amphibolitfazies subduziert. Die Folgerungen aus der sich über die Zeit entwickelnden Breite dieser Scherzone werden diskutiert und die Bedeutung für die Vorhersage der Charakteristik von mitteltiefen krustalen Scherzonen, insbesondere in Verbindung mit seismischen Reflektionsprofilen betont.

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Résumé L'Himalaya constitue un laboratoire naturel idéal pour l'étude des processus de déformation de la croûte continentale au cours d'une orogenèse de collision. Les auteurs présentent des informations nouvelles relatives à l'évolution structurale de la zone du Main Mantle Thrust dans la région du Nanga Parbat au nord du Pakistan. Le toit de cet accident occupe un niveau assez élevé dans le «Kohistan arc Terrane» qui a été charrié sur les roches du continent indien. Le charriage doit probablement son origine à une structure en retour apparue au-dessus de la zone de subduction pré-collisionnelle (océanique). Le toit actuel de l'accident contient une zone de glissement (shear zone) épaisse d'environ 1 km et formée dans les conditions du facies des amphibolites. Les déformations engendrées par glissement simple (simple shear) ont développé de nouvelles fabriques parallèles à la surface de charriage. Cependant, dans une tranche d'une centaine de mètres à partir du contact du charriage, ces structures ont été reprises par des cisaillements extensionnels ou compressionnels, toujours dans les conditions du facies des amphibolites.Le mur de l'accident est formé d'un complexe ancien (le gneiss du Nanga Parbat) surmonté d'une série de métasédiments distincts qui présentent aujourd'hui le facies des amphibolites. Cette couverture de psammites, de pélites, de marbres et de métabasites locales est directement en contact le long du MMT avec l'arc du Kohistan. L'absence, dans cette couverture, de structures témoignant de contrastes rhéologiques marqués, suggère que la grande majorité des structures déformatives n'y ont été développées qu'après un enfouissement tectonique important. Avant cela, les roches de la couverture indienne ont dû être subductées passivement sous l'arc du Kohistan, jusqu'au facies des amphibolites. Les auteurs discutent ces conclusions en termes d'évolution temporelle d'une shear zone et en commentant les implications dans le domaine de la prédiction du caractère des shear zones de profondeur crustale moyenne, en particulier à partir des profils de sismique réflexion.

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Earthquake hazard in Jordan

An estimate of the maximum macroseismic intensities and ground accelerations which might be expected for the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is made. The inferred maximum magnitudes lie in the range of 6.1 to 7.3 although the possibility that larger earthquakes can occur with long recurrence times cannot be precluded. Peak horizontal accelerations in the range of 0.4 to 0.5 g can be expected in Jordan. Probabilistic estimates indicate that the odds are about even (50-50) that an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 6 will occur within 80 years.     

Geochemical signature of provenance in sand-size material in soils and stream sediments near the Tobacco Root batholith, Montana, U.S.A.

Trace-element geochemistry of sandstones are being used to determine provenance. We have conducted preliminary and limited experiments to determine to what extent daughter sands retain the geochemical signature of parent rocks. Six sets of first-order stream sediments, soils from adjacent slopes, and a variety of parent rocks were collected from southwestern Montana, U.S.A. Sampling in a low-relief area ensured that climate and residence time of soils on slopes could be eliminated as variables. Sand-size fractions of stream sediments and soils, and the corresponding parent rocks (granodiorite, quartz monzonite, granite gneiss, biotite-tonalite gneiss and amphibolite) were analyzed for most major elements and selected trace elements. Petrologic modal analysis of the parent rocks and the 0.25–0.50-mm fraction of each sand was done to monitor major mineralogic control, if any, on chemical compositions of the samples.

Our data show that the abundances of the Si and Al in sediments do not discriminate provenance. Abundances of Ca, Mg, Fe and Ti may broadly distinguish between sands derived from metamorphic and igneous source rocks, at least in the area studied. Differences in abundances of the Ba and Th, and the ratio of La/Lu between granitic, tonalitic and amphibolitic parent rocks are preserved in the daughter sediments that we studied. However, the size of the Eu anomaly in the REE patterns of different daughter sediments is not diagnostic of parent rocks. Abundances of Co and Sc distinguish between sediments derived from felsic and mafic rocks. A better provenance discrimination is obtained if the ratios La/Sc, Th/Sc, La/Co, Ba/Sc and Ba/Co are used.

Petrologic modal data show that mineral contents and chemical compositions of parent rocks are compatible with each other. The chemical composition of the sands may be roughly correlated to the petrological modal data but the abundances of some minor and trace elements of sediments cannot be inferred from modal mineralogy. This is expected because these elements may concentrate in accessory minerals and/or may weather out into aqueous or clay mineral fractions; it is also compatible with conclusions of previous studies that some of these elements do not reside in sand-size fractions of siliciclastic sediments.