Rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility assessment at the Chongren area (China) using frequency ratio,certainty factor,and index of entropy

The main objective of the study was to evaluate and compare the overall performance of three methods, frequency ratio (FR), certainty factor (CF) and index of entropy (IOE), for rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility mapping at the Chongren area (China) using geographic information system and remote sensing. First, a landslide inventory map for the study area was constructed from field surveys and interpretations of aerial photographs. Second, 15 landslide-related factors such as elevation, slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, stream power index, sediment transport index, topographic wetness index, distance to faults, distance to rivers, distance to roads, landuse, NDVI, lithology and rainfall were prepared for the landslide susceptibility modelling. Using these data, three landslide susceptibility models were constructed using FR, CF and IOE. Finally, these models were validated and compared using known landslide locations and the receiver operating characteristics curve. The result shows that all the models perform well on both the training and validation data. The area under the curve showed that the goodness-of-fit with the training data is 79.12, 80.34 and 80.42% for FR, CF and IOE whereas the prediction power is 80.14, 81.58 and 81.73%, for FR, CF and IOE, respectively. The result of this study may be useful for local government management and land use planning.     

Seismic energy dissipation for cable-stayed bridges using passive devices

This study assesses analytically the effectiveness, feasibility and limitations of elastic and hysteretic damping augmentation devices, such as elastomeric and lead–rubber bearings, with respect to the dynamic and seismic performance of cable-stayed bridges. This type of bridge, which has relatively greater flexibility, is more susceptible to undesirable vibrations due to service and environmental loadings than are conventional bridges. Therefore, damping is a very important property. Supplementary damping devices based on the plastic deformation of lead and steel are proposed at critical zones, such as the deck–abutment and deck–tower connections, to concentrate hysteretic behaviour in these specially designed energy absorbers. Inelastic behaviour in primary structural elements of the bridge can therefore be avoided, assuring the serviceability of these cable-supported bridges. Analytically, three-dimensional modelling is developed for the bridge and the damping devices, including the bridge geometrical large-displacement non-linearity and the local material and geometric non-linearities of the energy dissipation devices. The effects of various modelling and design parameters of the bridge response are also studied, including the properties, modelling accuracy and location of the devices along the bridge superstructure. It is shown that an optimum model of the seismic performance of the bridges with these passive control devices can be obtained by balancing the reduction in forces along the bridge against tolerable displacements. Appropriate locations and hysteretic energy dissipation properties of the devices can achieve a significant reduction in seismic-induced forces, as compared to the case with no dampers added, and relatively better control of displacements. In addition, proper selection of the location of the passive control systems can help redistribute forces along the structure which may provide solutions for retrofitting some existing bridges. However, caution should be exercised in simulating the device response for a reliable bridge structural performance. Moreover, while seismic response of the bridge can be significantly improved with added dampers, their degree of effectiveness also depends on the energy absorption characteristics of the dampers.     

Groundwater flow modelling of Yamuna-Krishni interstream,a part of central Ganga Plain Uttar Pradesh

Groundwater is a major source of water for agricultural and domestic requirements in western Uttar Pradesh. Due to increasing agricultural requirements the abstraction of groundwater has increased manifold in the last two-to-three decades. The quaternary alluvium hosts the aquifer in the region. The study area forms a part of Yamuna-Krishni interfluve. Although the area hosts potential aquifers these have been adversely affected by poor management. For effective groundwater management of a basin it is essential that a careful water balance study should be carried out. Keeping this in mind groundwater flow modelling was attempted to simulate the behaviour of the flow system and evaluate the water balance. The groundwater flow modelling was carried out. The horizontal flows, seepage losses from unlined canals, recharge from rainfall and irrigation return flows were applied using different boundary packages available in Visual MODFLOW, Pro 4.1. The river-aquifer interaction was simulated using the river boundary package. Hydraulic conductivity values were applied to specific zones and these ranged from 9.8 to 26.6m/day. Recharge due to rainfall and irrigation returns were assigned to respective zones. Pumping rates of 500m³/day, 1000m³/day, 1500m³/day, 2000m³/day and 2500m³/day were applied to appropriate areas of the model to simulate areas of stress. The zone budget shows a water balance deficit for the period June 2006 to June 2007. The total recharge to the study area is 160.21 million m³ (Mcum). The groundwater draft through pumping is of the order of 233.56 Mcum, thus leaving a deficit balance of −73.35 Mcum. The sensitivity of the model to input parameters was tested by varying the parameters of interest over a range of values, monitoring the response of the model and determining the root mean square error of the simulated groundwater heads to the measured heads. These analyses showed that the model is most sensitive to hydraulic conductivity and recharge parameters. Three scenarios were considered to predict aquifer responses under varied conditions of groundwater bstraction.     

Meandering and bank erosion of the River Nile and its environmental impact on the area between Sohag and El-Minia, Egypt

The present work deals with meandering and bank erosion of the River Nile of Egypt and its environmental impact between Sohag and El-Minia, Egypt. The study depends on using Landsat imagery acquired on 1987–2000 and field observations. Field observations, remote sensing, and GIS analysis and sinuosity index were used in this study to investigate river meandering and the associated processes of erosion of river bank and islands, deposition of sediments and formation of new islands. The analysis of Landsat imagery revealed the migration of river course with time and space. Some islands disappear completely in the study area whereas new islands appear in other places. The lateral erosion on the river banks led to a decrease in agricultural lands bordering the river banks and decrease in the areas of the river islands which in turn reduces the agricultural production. Depositional processes create new floodplains on the convex sides of the river course and new islands and sand bars. Protection methods are recommended to protect the river bank from further movement and erosion. The present conditions of river meandering and the associated processes of erosion and deposition accelerated with human activities have its impact on the environment. The most prominent hazard problem is reduction of agricultural lands and loss of property as well as navigation problems. River control is recommended to weaken the secondary currents created by the river bends. It is recommended to regularly monitor the river banks and islands and measure the rates of erosion and deposition. Sand bars and subsurface islands should be monitored and identified with flash lights to mitigate navigation problems.     

Relative model score: a scoring rule for evaluating ensemble simulations with application to microbial soil respiration modeling

This paper defines a new scoring rule, namely relative model score (RMS), for evaluating ensemble simulations of environmental models. RMS implicitly incorporates the measures of ensemble mean accuracy, prediction interval precision, and prediction interval reliability for evaluating the overall model predictive performance. RMS is numerically evaluated from the probability density functions of ensemble simulations given by individual models or several models via model averaging. We demonstrate the advantages of using RMS through an example of soil respiration modeling. The example considers two alternative models with different fidelity, and for each model Bayesian inverse modeling is conducted using two different likelihood functions. This gives four single-model ensembles of model simulations. For each likelihood function, Bayesian model averaging is applied to the ensemble simulations of the two models, resulting in two multi-model prediction ensembles. Predictive performance for these ensembles is evaluated using various scoring rules. Results show that RMS outperforms the commonly used scoring rules of log-score, pseudo Bayes factor based on Bayesian model evidence (BME), and continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). RMS avoids the problem of rounding error specific to log-score. Being applicable to any likelihood functions, RMS has broader applicability than BME that is only applicable to the same likelihood function of multiple models. By directly considering the relative score of candidate models at each cross-validation datum, RMS results in more plausible model ranking than CRPS. Therefore, RMS is considered as a robust scoring rule for evaluating predictive performance of single-model and multi-model prediction ensembles.     

A Novel Approach in Hydrogeochemical Exploration for Uranium Mineralization: an Example from West Central Sinai, Egypt

Groundwater in contact with ore deposits may acquire a chemical composition that could be used as a guide for exploration. Eight well-water samples are collected from a known uranium-mineralized area near Abu Zenima, west central Sinai to examine the applicability of using the hydrogeochemical technique in the search for uranium mineralization in similar arid areas. The analytical chemical data of the ground water is compared with ground radiometric measurements. The obtained results indicate that groundwater affected by uranium mineralization has a specific relativity of major anions expressed essentially as SO4>Cl>HCO3 and to a lesser extent as Cl>SO4>HCO3, associated as a rule with low magnesium content. This association constitutes a signature of uranium mineralization on the composition of groundwater in west central Sinai and could be used as an important exploration guide in the search for uranium deposits in similar areas. Anomalies in Ni, Fe, Zn and Cr and other pathfinder elements in groundwater can furnish geochemical guides to uranium ores. The immobile trace element anomalies, including Zn, Ni and Fe are strongly distributed near the orebody; whereas the relatively mobile trace elements, including Co, U, V and Cr, constitute the dispersion haloes away from the orebody. A new hydrogeochemical discrimination diagram is constructed to be used as a quick and cost effective exploration tool in the search for uranium occurrences in environmentally similar arid areas. Based on the obtained results, a new site for uranium occurrence, west of W. Baba, is delineated and recommended for future detailed geological and geochemical surveying.     

Magnetodynamic stability of a fluid cylinder under the lundquist force-free magnetic field

The magnetodynamic (in)stability of a conducting fluid cylinder subject to the capillarity and electromagnetic forces has been developed. The cylinder is pervaded by a uniform magnetic field but embedded in the Lundquist force-free varying field that allows for flowing a current surrounding the fluid. A general eigenvalue relation is derived based on a study of the equilibrium and perturbed states. The stability criterion is discussed analytically in general terms. The surface tension is destabilizing for small axisymmetric mode and stable for all others. The principle of the exchange of stability is allowed for the present problem due to the non-uniform behaviour of the force-free field. Each of the axial and transverse force-free fields separately exerts a stabilizing influence in the most dangerous mode but the combined contribution of them is strongly destabilizing. Whether the model is acted upon the electromagnetic force (with the Lundquist field) the stability restrictions or/and the capillarity force are identified.Several reported works can be recovered as limiting cases with appropriate simplifications.     

Biogeochemical Prospecting of Sulphide Minerals in Winder Valley, Balochistan, Pakistan

Abstract: The Mor Range is mountainous terrain in southern Balochistan dominantly occupied by exposures of rocks of the Ferozabad Group which is comprised of Lower‐Middle Jurassic carbonates and siliciclastics. This group contains syngenetic and epigenetic Zn–Pb–Ba mineralization classified as Stratiform Sediment‐Hosted (SSH) and Mississippi Valley Type (MVT) deposits. Three important flora of the Saharo–Sindian, phytogeographical region of Pakistan, namely Tamarix aphyl–la, Salvadora oleoides and Acacia arabica have been studied as a mineralization prospecting tool. Samples of these species were collected from Winder Valley adjoining the Mor Range to prospect for new areas of mineralization, besides the known sulphide deposits. This study revealed the Draber, Thorar, Raj, Mithi and Kanrach localities as new prospect. Quantitative estimation of biophile elements (Zn–Cu–Pb) from the three species was made. A number of new Zn, Cu and Pb anomalies were distinguished in the area. The variation in the constituents of these species from different localities possibly varies with nature and distance from bedrock, mobility, climate, average abundance in the plant ash and exclusion mechanism of the flora. Acacia arabica with deep penetrating roots shows the best results and could be used to delineate new horizons of mineralization. In these species Zn and Cu are relatively concentrated whereas Pb shows limited enrichment. Lead therefore is the element best suited for pinpointing the mineralization owing to its relatively less mobile character. Relationships among Zn–Cu–Pb have been established using scattergrams and triangular variation diagram, which also demonstrate their genetic affiliation. Statistical analyses, such as determination of mean, mode, median, standard deviation, and coefficient of correlation, were also made to improve the raw geochemical data. These biogeochemical methods appear to be suitable in arid climate of Balochistan, if proper attention is paid to species selection.     

Agent-based simulation for biogas power plant potential in Schwarzwald-Baar-Kreis,Germany: a step towards better economy

Over the past decade, political framework in the energy sector all over the world has provoked a strong focus on the production of renewable energies. The study focuses on agent-based modelling approach to identify the suitable and economical distribution of biogas power plants over time in the area of interest. For sufficient supply of biomass (silage maize) on a regional basis to run biogas power plants economically and smoothly, different thematic layers with defined rules for Agent Analyst used to simulate the future installations of power plants. In conjunction with ArcGIS, the Agent Analyst software generates simulations that prove the robustness of the model in finding the suitable location of power plants. The resultant location from the model is analysed in different aspects. The designed methodology could be implemented in other areas with minor edits as per requirement of the area.