近代回归分析在交通调查分析建模中的应用

本文以出行发生量模型的建立为例,较为系统地讨论了近代回归分析中的自变量选择及回归诊断方法在交通调查分析建模中的应用。分析了在获取调查数据后,如何借助回归自变量选择方法来选择最佳自变量子集,以确定简捷的回归模型;文中应用回归诊断方法,讨论了修正回归模型、探测错误的调查数据的方法,从而为建立简捷、高精度的交通模型打下了基础。最后,作者提出了应用自变量选择及回归诊断方法建立出行发行量模型的一般步骤。     

Identifying influence areas with connectivity analysis – application to the local perturbation of heterogeneity distribution for history matching

Numerical representations of a target reservoir can help to assess the potential of different development plans. To be as predictive as possible, these representations or models must reproduce the data (static, dynamic) collected on the field. However, constraining reservoir models to dynamic data – the history-matching process – can be very time consuming. Many uncertain parameters need to be taken into account, such as the spatial distribution of petrophysical properties. This distribution is mostly unknown and usually represented by millions of values populating the reservoir grid. Dedicated parameterization techniques make it possible to investigate many spatial distributions from a small number of parameters. The efficiency of the matching process can be improved from the perturbation of specific regions of the reservoir. Distinct approaches can be considered to define such regions. For instance, one can refer to streamlines. The leading idea is to identify areas that influence the production behavior where the data are poorly reproduced. Here, we propose alternative methods based on connectivity analysis to easily provide approximate influence areas for any fluid-flow simulation. The reservoir is viewed as a set of nodes connected by weighted links that characterize the distance between two nodes. The path between nodes (or grid blocks) with the lowest cumulative weight yields an approximate flow path used to define influence areas. The potential of the approach is demonstrated on the basis of 2D synthetic cases for the joint integration of production and 4D saturation data, considering several formulations for the weights attributed to the links.     

基于小波分解的西太平洋副热带高压模糊推理预测

基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,讨论了西太平洋副高脊线与其前期位置的相互关系,并在此基础上用小波分解和自适应模糊推理方法,对副高脊线进行集成建模和预测.基于小波分解重构的副高脊线短期活动集成预测结果表明,该方法可有效降低预报难度,明显改进和提高了副高脊线短期活动的预报准确率.     

再论贺兰山南部北西向构造成因

贺兰山南部分布着多个方向的构造，其中最明显地是一系列的北西向构造，目前这些构造的相互关系以及形成机制还没有得到合理地解释，争论很大；野外构造研究表明，贺兰山南部北西向构造的形成与青铜峡一固原断裂活动有密切的关系，是该断裂由走滑运动向挤压运动转换时的派生构造；从另一角度也说明，在中新生代由青铜峡一固原断裂所限定的地块(卫宁北山)向东运动，而这些北西向构造的形成主要发生在新生代。由于卫宁北山向东运动的动力来源于青藏高原，因此，贺兰山南部北西向构造的形成与青藏高原的演化有密切的联系。所以。作为中国重要地质界限的南北向构造——贺兰山已经被青藏高原的构造活动所叠加。     

顺义地裂缝成因与顺义-良乡断裂北段第四纪活动性讨论

本文通过钻孔地层对比方法研究了顺义一良乡断裂北段的第四纪活动性，资料显示该断裂在第四纪期间呈现强弱交替的分期活动特征，距今315万年以来有3个较强活动期和3个较弱活动期，前三者分别距今266～315、171～228、73～147万年，后三者距今分别为228．266、147～171、0～73万年。中更新世晚期以来断裂活动不明显。超量开采地下水导致地面不均匀沉降是造成顺义地裂缝现今活动的主要原因。     

Study on rain-runoff process in the peripheral mountainous area of the Sichuan Basin

Studies on rain-runoff process in the peripheral mountainous area of the Sichuan Basin, which is regarded as a key ecological shelter, will contribute to flood control and environmental protection for the Upper Yangtze River Basin. In two typical catchments--the Fujiang River Catchment and the Wujiang River Catchment, rainfall simulations have been conducted to study the rain-runoff processes of yellow soil and limestone soil in three types of land use--forestland, farmland and grassland. Results showed that （1） within the same rainfall process, overland flow occurs first on farmland, then on grassland, and finally on forestland; （2） soil surface coverage has a great impact on the occurrence and amount of overland flow. The runoff amount can increase 2-4 times after the coverage is removed; （3） the infiltration before the occurrence of overland flow will decrease because of higher gravel contents of soil, but it takes no effect on infiltration once overland flow becomes stable; （4） the runoff coefficient of the limestone soil forestland is greater than that of the yellow soil forest land, but less than that of the farmland; （5） three empirical infiltration models, including Horton＇ model, Kostiakov＇ model, and modified Kostiakov＇ model, were compared by using the observed results under rainfall simulation. The results showed that the Kostiakov＇ model performed better than both the Horton＇ model and modified Kostiakov model. According to the results of this research, the Kostiakov＇s model can be used to simulate rainfall infiltration when water erosion is modeled in the peripheral mountainous area of the Sichuan Basin.     

STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NIUSHOU MOUNTAIN AND ITS GEOLOGICAL SIGNIFICANCE IN CENTRAL NINGXIA

There are many thrust-related structures occurring in the Paleozoic strata of the Niushou Mountain in the central part of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. The fault-related folds are the typical structures in this area. Based on the analysis about these structures and their relationships, the processes by which these structures of the Miboshan Formation were formed are reconstructed, and the strata underwent about three stages of deformation: (1) horizontal shortening, (2) folding, and (3) thrusting. And the fact that the Niushou Mountain is the leading edge of an old thrust sheet was proved, the Niushou Mountain, the Daluo Mountain and the Xiaoluo Mountain together constitute the front part of this old thrust zone, so the Niushou Mountain and the Ordovician strata in the central and southern parts of Ningxia now are likely allochthons. In the period from middle Ordovician to Devonian, the areas of the central and southern Ningxia belonged to the back-arc foreland basin of North Qilianshan orogen, which was adjacent to the continent in the north. In the later part of the early Paleozoic period, the Niushou Mountain was formed after the closure of the back-arc foreland basin.     

Hydrological system analysis and modelling of the Kara River basin (West Africa) using a lumped metric conceptual model

This paper discusses the analysis and modelling of the hydrological system of the basin of the Kara River, a transboundary river in Togo and Benin, as a necessary step towards sustainable water resources management. The methodological approach integrates the use of discharge parameters, flow duration curves and the lumped conceptual model IHACRES. A Sobol sensitivity analysis is performed and the model is calibrated by applying the shuffled complex evolution algorithm. Results show that discharge generation in three nested catchments of the basin is affected by landscape physical characteristics. The IHACRES model adequately simulates the rainfall–runoff dynamics in the basin with a mean modified Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measure of 0.6. Modelling results indicate that parameters controlling rainfall transformation to effective rainfall are more sensitive than those routing the streamflow. This study provides insights into understanding the catchment’s hydrological system. Nevertheless, further investigations are required to better understand detailed runoff generation processes.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman; ASSOCIATE EDITOR N Verhoest     

Transmission and visualization of large geographical maps

Transmission and visualization of large geographical maps have become a challenging research issue in GIS applications. This paper presents an efficient and robust way to simplify large geographical maps using frame buffers and Voronoi diagrams. The topological relationships are kept during the simplification by removing the Voronoi diagram’s self-overlapped regions. With the simplified vector maps, we establish different levels of detail (LOD) models of these maps. Then we introduce a client/server architecture which integrates our out-of-core algorithm, progressive transmission and rendering scheme based on computer graphics hardware. The architecture allows the viewers to view different regions interactively at different LODs on the network. Experimental results show that our proposed scheme provides an effective way for powerful transmission and manipulation of large maps.