Climate change impact on extreme wave conditions in the North Sea: an ensemble study

An analysis of today’s mean and extreme wave conditions in the North Sea and their possible future changes due to anthropogenic climate change are presented. The sea state was simulated for the 30-year period 2071–2100 using the wave model WAM and an ensemble of wind field data sets for four climate change realizations as driving data. The wind field data sets are based on simulation outputs from two global circulation models (GCMs: HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3) for two emission scenarios (A2 and B2, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Special Report on Emission Scenarios). They were regionalized by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute using the regional climate model RCAO. The effects of the climate realizations on the sea state statistics were assessed by analyzing the differences between the patterns in the four CGM/emission scenario combinations and those in two control simulations representing reference wave climate conditions for the 30-year period 1961–1990. The analysis of the four emission scenario/GCM combinations has shown that the future long-term 99 percentile wind speed and significant wave height increase by up to 7% and 18%, respectively, in the North Sea, except for significant wave height off the English coast and to the north in the HadAM3H-driven simulation. The climate change response in the ECHAM4/OPYC3-forced experiments is generally larger than in the HadAM3H-driven simulations. The differences in future significant wave height between the different combinations are in the same order of magnitude as those between the control runs for the two GCMs. Nevertheless, there is agreement among the four combinations that extreme wave heights may increase in large parts in the southern and eastern North Sea by about 0.25 to 0.35 m (5–8% of present values) towards the end of the twenty first century in case of global warming. All combinations also show an increase in future frequency of severe sea state.     

The observational signature of the first H ii regions

We use three-dimensional smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations together with a dynamical ray-tracing scheme to investigate the build-up of the first H  ii regions around massive Population III stars in minihaloes. We trace the highly anisotropic breakout of the ionizing radiation into the intergalactic medium, allowing us to predict the resulting recombination radiation with greatly increased realism. Our simulations, together with Press–Schechter type arguments, allow us to predict the Population III contribution to the radio background at  ∼100 MHz  via bremsstrahlung and 21-cm emission. We find a global bremsstrahlung signal of around  1 mK  , and a combined 21-cm signature which is an order of magnitude larger. Both might be within the reach of the planned Square Kilometer Array experiment, although detection of the free–free emission is only marginal. The imprint of the first stars on the cosmic radio background might provide us with one of the few diagnostics to test the otherwise elusive minihalo star formation site.     

Experimental impact cratering: A summary of the major results of the MEMIN research unit

This paper reviews major findings of the Multidisciplinary Experimental and Modeling Impact Crater Research Network (MEMIN). MEMIN is a consortium, funded from 2009 till 2017 by the German Research Foundation, and is aimed at investigating impact cratering processes by experimental and modeling approaches. The vision of this network has been to comprehensively quantify impact processes by conducting a strictly controlled experimental campaign at the laboratory scale, together with a multidisciplinary analytical approach. Central to MEMIN has been the use of powerful two-stage light-gas accelerators capable of producing impact craters in the decimeter size range in solid rocks that allowed detailed spatial analyses of petrophysical, structural, and geochemical changes in target rocks and ejecta. In addition, explosive setups, membrane-driven diamond anvil cells, as well as laser irradiation and split Hopkinson pressure bar technologies have been used to study the response of minerals and rocks to shock and dynamic loading as well as high-temperature conditions. We used Seeberger sandstone, Taunus quartzite, Carrara marble, and Weibern tuff as major target rock types. In concert with the experiments we conducted mesoscale numerical simulations of shock wave propagation in heterogeneous rocks resolving the complex response of grains and pores to compressive, shear, and tensile loading and macroscale modeling of crater formation and fracturing. Major results comprise (1) projectile–target interaction, (2) various aspects of shock metamorphism with special focus on low shock pressures and effects of target porosity and water saturation, (3) crater morphologies and cratering efficiencies in various nonporous and porous lithologies, (4) in situ target damage, (5) ejecta dynamics, and (6) geophysical survey of experimental craters.     

Evaluation of Combined Direct-Push Methods Used for Aquifer Model Generation

Most established methods to characterize aquifer structure and hydraulic conductivities of hydrostratigraphical units are not capable of delivering sufficient information in the spatial resolution that is desired for sophisticated numerical contaminant transport modeling and adapted remediation design. With hydraulic investigation methods based on the direct-push (DP) technology such as DP slug tests, DP injection logging, and the hydraulic profiling tool, it is possible to rapidly delineate hydrogeological structures and estimate their hydraulic conductivity in shallow unconsolidated aquifers without the need for wells. A combined application of these tools was used for the investigation of a contaminated German refinery site and for the setup of hydraulic aquifer models. The quality of DP investigation and the models was evaluated by comparisons of tracer transport simulations using these models and measured breakthroughs of two natural gradient tracer tests. Model scenarios considering the information of all tools together showed good reproduction of the measured breakthroughs, indicating the suitability of the approach and a minor impact of potential technical limitations. Using the DP slug tests alone yielded significantly higher deviations for the determined hydraulic conductivities compared to considering two or three of the tools. Realistic aquifer models developed on basis of such combined DP investigation approaches can help optimize remediation concepts or identify flow regimes for aquifers with a complex structure.     

Geochemical and isotopic zoning patterns of plagioclase megacrysts in gabbroic dykes from the Gardar Province, South Greenland: implications for crystallisation processes in anorthositic magmas

Chemical and Sr isotopic zoning patterns in plagioclase megacrysts from gabbroic dykes in the Gardar Province can be used to elucidate magma-chamber and emplacement processes. The megacrysts occur either as single crystals or assembled as anorthosite xenoliths. The size of the megacrysts varies from <1 cm to 1 m. They consist of a large core with variable zonation (An_58-39) and a relatively small (<600 µm), normally zoned rim (An_62-27). The contact between core and rim is sharp and marked by a sharp increase in anorthite content which can reach 11 mol% An. This gap is interpreted as having formed during dyke emplacement due to a sudden pressure release. Some of the megacryst cores show a fairly constant composition whereas others exhibit an unusual wavy-oscillatory zoning which has not been reported elsewhere to our knowledge. The oscillatory zoning has wavelengths of up to 2,500 µm and a maximum amplitude of 7 mol% An. It is interpreted as reflecting movements of the crystals in the magma reservoir. The Sr isotopic composition of one crystal shows a radiogenic inner core ((⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i=0.7044) and a less radiogenic outer core ((⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i=0.7039-0.7036). The lack of a significant change between outer core and rim ((⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i=0.7037) is consistent with formation of the more An-rich rim due to pressure release. Variations in the core may be related to movements of the crystal and/or magma mixing. A trace-element profile across a megacryst shows a small increase in Sr and small decreases in Ba and La contents of the recalculated melt composition across the core-rim boundary, whereas P, Ce, Nd and Eu remain constant. Melt compositional changes upon emplacement are therefore considered to be of minor importance. Constant ratios of incompatible trace elements in the megacryst cores indicate a dominant influence of a lower crustal source on trace-element budgets.     

The Bayesian approach to an internally consistent thermodynamic database: theory, database, and generation of phase diagrams

An internally consistent thermodynamic dataset has been derived for 148 endmember phases (145 solids and 3 fluids) comprising the elements Li, Na, K, Be, Mg, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Zn, Al, Si, C, H, and O. This has been achieved by simultaneous treatment of phase property (like standard enthalpy of formation, standard entropy, molar heat capacity, molar volume, thermal expansivity, bulk modulus etc.) and reaction reversal data by the Bayesian method. The theory underlying the approach, and the computational methods involved, are briefly outlined. (For the benefit of readers unfamiliar with inference statistics, the basic concepts of the Bayes method are also presented in such a way that they can be grasped intuitively.) Although not yet addressed, this method can be extended to refine the thermodynamic mixing properties of crystalline solutions. The sources of the input data, culled from the literature, are summarized in the Appendix. The resulting database is succinctly documented in this paper. It includes the enthalpies of formation and entropies, their uncertainties, and the correlation among them. The database allows calculation of P-T, T-X _CO2, P-X _CO2, and T-f _O2 sections, with error propagation into the computed phase diagrams on a routine basis. A user-friendly computer program has been written to generate such phase diagrams. It is public domain software. The software and the thermodynamic database (which includes a complete documentation of the thermodynamic data above and beyond those listed (Table 2, here) may be downloaded from the web site http://homepage.ruhr-uni-bochum.de/niranjan.chatterjee/Index.htm. Examples of computed phase diagrams are given to illustrate the quality of the data and the capabilities of the software. Received: 11 March 1998 / Accepted: 11 June 1998     

Volume diffusion of Ytterbium in YAG: thin-film experiments and combined TEM–RBS analysis

In this study, we address volume diffusion of ytterbium in yttrium aluminum garnet (YAG) using thin-film single crystal diffusion couples. We employ analytical transmission electron microscopy (ATEM) as a tool for combined microstructural and microchemical analysis and compare the results to Rutherford backscattering (RBS) analysis. Given the high spatial resolution of the method, we focus on microstructural changes of the thin-film diffusant source during the diffusion anneal. We evaluate the potential influence of the associated changes in its transport properties on the evolution of concentration profiles in the single crystal substrate. This approach allows us to test the reliability of determination of volume diffusion coefficients from thin-film diffusion experiments. We found that for the chosen experimental setting, the influence of thin-film re-crystallization is small when compared with the experimental uncertainty and good estimates for the volume diffusion coefficients of Yb in YAG can be obtained using standard assumptions. Both Yb-concentration profiles analyzed with ATEM and with RBS give similar results. At 1,450°C and 1 bar, we infer log D _Yb (m²/s) values of −19.37 ± 0.07 (TEM) and −19.84 ± 0.02 (RBS). Although the change in thin-film transport properties associated with successive crystallization during the diffusion anneal does not play a major role for our experimental setup, this effect cannot generally be ignored.     

Influence of the surface microlayer on the flux of nonconservative trace gases (CO,H2, CH4, N2O) across the ocean-atmosphere interface

Gas exchange experiments were conducted in the tropical Atlantic Ocean during a ship expedition with FS Meteor using a small rubber raft. The temporal change of the mixing ratios of CO, H₂, CH₄ and N₂O in the headspace of a floating glass box and the concentrations of these gases in the water phase were measured to determine their transfer velocities across the ocean-atmosphere interface. The ocean acted as a sink for these gases when the water was undersaturated with respect to the mixing ratio in the headspace. The transfer velocities were different for the individual gases and showed still large differences even when normalized for diffusivity. Applying the laminar film model, film thicknesses of 20 to 70 m were calculated for the observed flux rates of the different gas species. When the water was supersaturated with respect to atmospheric CO, H₂, CH₄ and N₂O, the transfer velocities of the emission process were smaller than those determined for the deposition process. In case of H₂ and CH₄, emission was even not calculable although, based on the observed gradient, the laminar film model predicted significant fluxes at the air-sea interface. The results are interpreted by destruction processes active within the surface microlayer.     

Robust dual‐sensor data sea‐surface ghost attenuation for quality control purposes

Three‐dimensional receiver ghost attenuation (deghosting) of dual‐sensor towed‐streamer data is straightforward, in principle. In its simplest form, it requires applying a three‐dimensional frequency–wavenumber filter to the vertical component of the particle motion data to correct for the amplitude reduction on the vertical component of non‐normal incidence plane waves before combining with the pressure data. More elaborate techniques use three‐dimensional filters to both components before summation, for example, for ghost wavelet dephasing and mitigation of noise of different strengths on the individual components in optimum deghosting. The problem with all these techniques is, of course, that it is usually impossible to transform the data into the crossline wavenumber domain because of aliasing. Hence, usually, a two‐dimensional version of deghosting is applied to the data in the frequency–inline wavenumber domain. We investigate going down the “dimensionality ladder” one more step to a one‐dimensional weighted summation of the records of the collocated sensors to create an approximate deghosting procedure. We specifically consider amplitude‐balancing weights computed via a standard automatic gain control before summation, reminiscent of a diversity stack of the dual‐sensor recordings. This technique is independent of the actual streamer depth and insensitive to variations in the sea‐surface reflection coefficient. The automatic gain control weights serve two purposes: (i) to approximately correct for the geometric amplitude loss of the Z data and (ii) to mitigate noise strength variations on the two components. Here, Z denotes the vertical component of the velocity of particle motion scaled by the seismic impedance of the near‐sensor water volume. The weights are time‐varying and can also be made frequency‐band dependent, adapting better to frequency variations of the noise. The investigated process is a very robust, almost fully hands‐off, approximate three‐dimensional deghosting step for dual‐sensor data, requiring no spatial filtering and no explicit estimates of noise power. We argue that this technique performs well in terms of ghost attenuation (albeit, not exact ghost removal) and balancing the signal‐to‐noise ratio in the output data. For instances where full three‐dimensional receiver deghosting is the final product, the proposed technique is appropriate for efficient quality control of the data acquired and in aiding the parameterisation of the subsequent deghosting processing.     

Coal Mining Induced Seismicity in the Ruhr Area, Germany

Over the last 25 years mining-induced seismicity in the Ruhr area has continuously been monitored by the Ruhr-University Bochum. About 1,000 seismic events with local magnitudes between 0.7 ≤ M _L ≤ 3.3 are located every year. For example, 1,336 events were located in 2006. General characteristics of induced seismicity in the entire Ruhr area are spatial and temporal correlation with mining activity and a nearly constant energy release per unit time. This suggests that induced stresses are released rapidly by many small events. The magnitude–frequency distribution follows a Gutenberg–Richter relation which is a result from combining distributions of single longwalls that themselves show large variability. A high b-value of about 2 was found indicating a lack of large magnitude events. Local analyses of single longwalls indicate that various factors such as local geology and mine layout lead to significant differences in seismicity. Stress redistribution acts very locally since differences on a small scale of some hundreds of meters are observed. A regional relation between seismic moment M ₀ and local magnitude M _L was derived. The magnitude–frequency distribution of a single longwall in Hamm was studied in detail and shows a maximum at M _L = 1.4 corresponding to an estimated characteristic source area of about 2,200 m². Sandstone layers in the hanging or foot wall of the active longwall might fail in these characteristic events. Source mechanisms can mostly be explained by shear failure of two different types above and below the longwall. Fault plane solutions of typical events are consistent with steeply dipping fracture planes parallel to the longwall face and nearly vertical dislocation in direction towards the goaf. We also derive an empirical relation for the decay of ground velocity with epicenter distance and compare maximum observed ground velocity to local magnitude. This is of considerable public interest because about 30 events larger than M _L ≥ 1.2 are felt each month by people living in the mining regions. Our relations, for example, indicate that an event in Hamm with a peak ground velocity of 6 mm/s which corresponds to a local magnitude M _L between 1.7 and 2.3 is likely to be felt within about 2.3 km radius from the event.