Projections of uncertainties in climate change scenarios into expected winter wheat yields

Summary The crop model CERES-Wheat in combination with the stochastic weather generator were used to quantify the effect of uncertainties in selected climate change scenarios on the yields of winter wheat, which is the most important European cereal crop. Seven experimental sites with the high quality experimental data were selected in order to evaluate the crop model and to carry out the climate change impact analysis. The analysis was based on the multi-year crop model simulations run with the daily weather series prepared by the stochastic weather generator. Seven global circulation models (GCMs) were used to derive the climate change scenarios. In addition, seven GCM-based scenarios were averaged in order to derive the average scenario (AVG). The scenarios were constructed for three time periods (2025, 2050 and 2100) and two SRES emission scenarios (A2 and B1). The simulated results showed that: (1) Wheat yields tend to increase (40 out of 42 applied scenarios) in most locations in the range of 7.5–25.3% in all three time periods. In case of the CCSR scenario that predicts the most severe increase of air temperature, the yields would be reduced by 9.6% in 2050 and by 25.8% in 2100 if the A2 emission scenario would become reality. Differences between individual scenarios are large and statistically significant. Particularly for the time periods 2050 and 2100 there are doubts about the trend of the yield shifts. (2) The site effect was caused by the site-specific soil and climatic conditions. Importance of the site influence increases with increasing severity of imposed climatic changes and culminates for the emission scenario A2 and the time period 2100. The sustained tendency benefiting two warmest sites has been found as well as more positive response to the changed climatic conditions of the sites with deeper soil profiles. (3) Temperature variability proved to be an important factor and influenced both mean and standard deviation of the yields. Change of temperature variability by more than 25% leads to statistically significant changes in yield distribution. The effect of temperature variability decreases with increased values of mean temperature. (4) The study proved that the application of the AVG scenarios – despite possible objections of physical inconsistency – might be justifiable and convenient in some cases. It might bring results comparable to those derived from averaging outputs based on number of scenarios and provide more robust estimate than the application of only one selected GCM scenario.     

Vertical distribution of phytoplankton in a stratified estuary

We present a fine vertical distribution of physico-chemical parameters and phytoplankton density around the halocline (freshwater/seawater interface) in the Krka estuary on the East coast of the Adriatic Sea. Suspended matter, surfactant activity, surface active aggregates, particulate organic carbon and phaeophytin all show largest concentrations in the 20–50 cm thick interface layer. The highest concentration of chlorophyll-a is found on the upper boundary of the interface and it is a consequence of majority of viable freshwater phytoplankton cells that accumulate there. The phytoplankton accumulates selectively in the interface: larger size fractions accumulate faster than smaller ones. In particular, nanoplanakton accumulates the least. The visible interface is also populated by dead phytoplankton cells. Most of the freshwater phytoplankton dies and decomposes in the interface, as revealed by a small chlorophyll-a/phaeophytin ratio, and it represents the main source of surface active dissolved and particulate organic matter. Marine flagellates migrate and divide in the interface, while some species likeProrocentrum micans andSyracosphera sp. are also found in the upper freshwater layer.     

Magmatic history of granite-derived mylonites from the southern Desná Unit (Silesicum, Czech Republic)

Summary In the southern part of the Hruby Jeseník Mts. (Silesicum, Bohemian Massif) granitic orthogneisses and quartz-feldspars mylonites occur that were variously deformed, metamorphosed and imbricated with the overlaying Devonian volcano-sedimentary complex during the Variscan orogeny. Based on combined mapping, petrologic and geochemical studies, three main rock groups are distinguished. The fairly primitive nature of the tonalite suite is shown by low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr₅₅₀ ratios (0.7034–0.7038) and positive ε _Nd ⁵⁵⁰ values (+3.8 and +3.1). Isotopic composition of the metagranite suite is similar (ε _Nd ⁵⁵⁰ = +1.9 to +2.9). Both suites probably belong to a single Cadomian calc-alkaline tonalite–granite association, which can be correlated with acid-intermediate plutonic rocks of the eastern Brunovistulicum (Slavkov Terrane). All these units are interpreted as representing dismembered fragments of the same continental margin magmatic arc system. The leucogranite suite is most likely early Variscan in age. The initial Nd isotopic composition (ε _Nd ³³⁰ = +0.8 and +2.3) is consistent with its formation by a Variscan remelting of the metaigneous Cadomian crust represented by the rocks of the tonalite–granite association. The within-plate granite affinity of the leucogranite suite is most likely related to the break-up of the Brunovistulicum during the Variscan orogeny.     

Importance of the unsaturated zone in landslide reactivation on flysch slopes: observations from Valići Landslide,Croatia

Landslides - Field investigations and back-analyses of (re)activated landslides in the Rje?ina River Valley indicate prolonged intense rainfall and the rise of the groundwater table, often to...     

Industrial specialization and economic performance: A case of Czech microregions

An influential body of literature suggests that economic diversity rather than specialization fuels the economic performance of regions and nations. The authors argue that this hypothesis has no universal applicability and that a more differentiated view is needed. In particular, historical specificity of the local environment and structural characteristics of regional economies should be taken into account. They focus on the effects of industrial specialization on economic performance and the vulnerability of Central European post-communist regions, namely Czech microregions with less than 200,000 inhabitants. They examine whether the economic performance and vulnerability of these regions is fuelled rather by industrial specialization or diversity when controlling for other potential determinants of regional economic performance. Their findings show that the dependence of Czech regions on manufacturing correlates with higher economic performance but also with higher regional vulnerability. In addition, industrial specialization within manufacturing was found to be instrumental for the economic performance of regions with high dependence on manufacturing. With a decreasing share of employment in manufacturing, industrial diversity rather than specialization becomes more valuable for the economic performance of Czech regions.     

High-pressure X-ray study of LiCrSi2O6 clinopyroxene and the general compressibility trends for Li-clinopyroxenes

High-pressure single-crystal X-ray diffraction measurements of synthetic LiCrSi₂O₆ clinopyroxene (with space group P2₁/c) were performed in a diamond-anvil cell up to 7.970 GPa. No phase transition has been observed within the pressure range investigated, but the elastic behavior at lower pressures (up to ~2.5 GPa) is affected by an anomalous softening due to the proximity of the phase transition to the HT-C2/c phase at 330 K and at ambient pressure. A third-order Birch–Murnaghan equation of state fitted to the compression data above 2.5 GPa yields a bulk modulus K _T0 = 93(2) GPa and its first derivative K′ = 8.8(6). The structural data measured up to 7.970 GPa confirm that the space group P2₁/c is maintained throughout the whole pressure range investigated. The atomic parameters, obtained from the integrated diffraction intensities, suggest that the Li coordination polyhedron changes its coordination number from 5 to 6 at 6–7 GPa by means of the approach of the bridging O atom, related to the increased kinking of the B tetrahedral chain. Furthermore, at higher pressures, the structural evolution of LiCrSi₂O₆ provides evidence in the variation of kinking angles and bond lengths of a potential phase transition above 8 GPa to the HP-C2/c space group. A comparison of the Li-clinopyroxenes (M1 = Cr, Al, Sc, Ga, Mg + Fe) previously investigated and our sample shows that their elastic behavior and structural mechanisms of compression are analogous.     

K-guarding of polyhedral terrain

Site visibility analysis is an important research topic with many applications in Geographical Information Systems. This paper introduces a new paradigm in terrain guarding, called k-guarding. K-guarding is a generalization of the classic guarding problem where, instead of only one guard, each surface patch is guarded by at least k guards. Afterwards, two optimization problems based on k-guarding are defined: an optimum k-guarding, and a constrained k-guarding. There are three heuristic approaches—k-greedy add, k-stingy drop, and k-reverse greedy—that are proposed as a solution to the above-mentioned optimization problems. The first two are known approaches adapted to k-guarding, while k-reverse greedy is a new, original heuristic. The heuristics are compared using actual topographic surfaces. It is shown that our approach (k-reverse greedy) gives on average the best near optimum solutions. The most surprising finding of the experiments is that the combination of heuristics introduced here yields even better results.     

Pressure induced phase transition in Pb<Subscript>6</Subscript>Bi<Subscript>2</Subscript>S<Subscript>9</Subscript>

The crystal structure of Pb₆Bi₂S₉ is investigated at pressures between 0 and 5.6 GPa with X-ray diffraction on single-crystals. The pressure is applied using diamond anvil cells. Heyrovskyite (Bbmm, a = 13.719(4) Å, b = 31.393(9) Å, c = 4.1319(10) Å, Z = 4) is the stable phase of Pb₆Bi₂S₉ at ambient conditions and is built from distorted moduli of PbS-archetype structure with a low stereochemical activity of the Pb²⁺ and Bi³⁺ lone electron pairs. Heyrovskyite is stable until at least 3.9 GPa and a first-order phase transition occurs between 3.9 and 4.8 GPa. A single-crystal is retained after the reversible phase transition despite an anisotropic contraction of the unit cell and a volume decrease of 4.2%. The crystal structure of the high pressure phase, β-Pb₆Bi₂S₉, is solved in Pna2 ₁ (a = 25.302(7) Å, b = 30.819(9) Å, c = 4.0640(13) Å, Z = 8) from synchrotron data at 5.06 GPa. This structure consists of two types of moduli with SnS/TlI-archetype structure in which the Pb and Bi lone pairs are strongly expressed. The mechanism of the phase transition is described in detail and the results are compared to the closely related phase transition in Pb₃Bi₂S₆ (lillianite).     

Differences between true mean daily, monthly and annual air temperatures and air temperatures calculated with three equations: a case study from three Croatian stations

Differences between true mean daily, monthly and annual air temperatures T0 [Eq. (1)] and temperatures calculated with three different equations [(2), (3) and (4)] (commonly used in climatological practice) were investigated at three main meteorological Croatian stations from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2011. The stations are situated in the following three climatically distinct areas: (1) Zagreb-Gri? (mild continental climate), (2) Zavi?an (cold mountain climate), and (3) Dubrovnik (hot Mediterranean climate). T1 [Eq. (2)] and T3 [Eq. (4)] mean temperatures are defined by the algorithms based on the weighted means of temperatures measured at irregularly spaced, yet fixed hours. T2 [Eq. (3)] is the mean temperature defined as the average of daily maximum and minimum temperature. The equation as well as the time of observations used introduces a bias into mean temperatures. The largest differences occur for mean daily temperatures. The calculated daily difference value from all three equations and all analysed stations varies from ?3.73 °C to +3.56 °C, from ?1.39 °C to +0.79 °C for monthly differences and from ?0.76 °C to +0.30 °C for annual differences.