‘Modelling the Arctic Boundary Layer: An Evaluation of Six Arcmip Regional-Scale Models using Data from the Sheba Project’

A primary climate change signal in the central Arctic is the melting of sea ice. This is dependent on the interplay between the atmosphere and the sea ice, which is critically dependent on the exchange of momentum, heat and moisture at the surface. In assessing the realism of climate change scenarios it is vital to know the quality by which these exchanges are modelled in climate simulations. Six state-of-the-art regional-climate models are run for one year in the western Arctic, on a common domain that encompasses the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment ice-drift track. Surface variables, surface fluxes and the vertical structure of the lower troposphere are evaluated using data from the SHEBA experiment. All the models are driven by the same lateral boundary conditions, sea-ice fraction and sea and sea-ice surface temperatures. Surface pressure, near-surface air temperature, specific humidity and wind speed agree well with observations, with a falling degree of accuracy in that order. Wind speeds have systematic biases in some models, by as much as a few metres per second. The surface radiation fluxes are also surprisingly accurate, given the complexity of the problem. The turbulent momentum flux is acceptable, on average, in most models, but the turbulent heat fluxes are, however, mostly unreliable. Their correlation with observed fluxes is, in principle, insignificant, and they accumulate over a year to values an order of magnitude larger than observed. Typical instantaneous errors are easily of the same order of magnitude as the observed net atmospheric heat flux. In the light of the sensitivity of the atmosphere–ice interaction to errors in these fluxes, the ice-melt in climate change scenarios must be viewed with considerable caution.     

Verification of the shallow seismic crustal structure of the western Krušné Hory crystalline unit, Czech Republic

We analyze refraction measurements along a short profile in western Kru?né hory crystalline unit. The profile passed close to the seismically active zone of Nový Kostel. The measurements were carried out to distances of about 15 km using quarry blasts near the village of Horní Rozmy?l, located at the eastern margin of the crystalline unit. Smoothed P-wave travel times were interpreted using the Wiechert-Herglotz method, which yielded a 1-D velocity model of the shallow crustal structure of the crystalline unit down to a depth of 1.7 km. The P-wave velocity of the model increases from about 4.0 km/s at the surface to 5.9 km/s at a depth of 1.7 km. The superficial velocities of our model are somewhat higher than the superficial velocities of the model that is routinely used for earthquake location in the region.     

Population and distribution changes of two coexisting river amphipods after the closure of a new large dam

This study examined short-term changes of population size and distribution of two coexisting river amphipods after a major disturbance event – the closure of a new large dam on the Goja?ka Dobra River (Central Croatia) in June 2010. In the pre-disturbance period, coexistence of the two species, the endemic moss specialist Echinogammarus cari and the widespread microhabitat generalist Gammarus fossarum, was promoted by differential microdistribution between two dominating types of microhabitats, moss and stony substrate. E. cari was dominant in mosses and G. fossarum on stony substrate, representing an excellent case of spatial niche partitioning between two species of river amphipods. Drastic change in water quality and increased load of suspended particles that accumulated in mosses soon after the dam closure were the main factors that contributed to E. cari rapid population decline at sites downstream of the new dam. G. fossarum was much less affected by such changes, exhibiting no drastic population decline and even an increase in population size after disturbance event at three examined sites. Hence, specialization of E. cari for moss microhabitats which enabled stable coexistence of the two species before damming made it more vulnerable to disturbance and resulted in dominance shift in moss microhabitats in favour of G. fossarum after dam closure. This shift might reduce the probability of E. cari population recovery downstream from the new dam and change its current conservation status from endangered to critically endangered if it completely disappears downstream of the dam. Urgent measures aimed at conservation of this endemic species are proposed and discussed.     

Growth of accretionary wedges and pulsed ophiolitic mélange formation by successive subduction of trench‐parallel volcanic elevations

Fault‐bounded coherent belts alternating with belts of mélanges are common in accretionary wedges and are usually interpreted as a result of imbrication along subduction zone megathrusts. Using the Neoproterozoic/early Cambrian Blovice accretionary complex (BAC), Bohemian Massif, as a case example, we present a new model for the origin of alternating belts through the repetition of several cycles of (1) offscraping and deformation of trench‐fill sediments to form the coherent units, interrupted by (2) arrival and subduction of linear, trench‐parallel volcanic elevations. The latter process leads to an increase in the wedge taper, triggering mass‐wasting and formation of olistostromes. At the same time, ophiolitic mélanges form by disruption of an upper part of the volcanic ridge and incorporation of the disrupted ocean‐floor succession into the olistostromes. Specifically, the BAC represents a complete section across an accretionary wedge and records three such major pulses of ophiolitic mélange formation through subduction of an outboard back‐arc basin.     

Modeling compositional compressible two-phase flow in porous media by the concept of the global pressure

We derive a new formulation for the compositional compressible two-phase flow in porous media. We consider a liquid–gas system with two components: water and hydrogen. The formulation considers gravity, capillary effects, and diffusivity of each component. The main feature of this formulation is the introduction of the global pressure variable that partially decouples the system equations. To formulate the final system, and in order to avoid primary unknowns changing between one-phase and two-phase zones, a second persistent variable is introduced: the total hydrogen mass density. The derived system is written in terms of the global pressure and the total hydrogen mass density. The system is capable of modeling the flows in both one and two-phase zones with no changes of the primary unknowns. The mathematical structure is well defined: the system consists of two nonlinear parabolic equations, the global pressure equation, and the total hydrogen mass density equation. The derived formulation is fully equivalent to the original one. Numerical simulations show ability of this new formulation to model efficiently the phase appearance and disappearance.     

Propagation of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections: The Drag-Based Model

We present the “Drag-Based Model” (DBM) of heliospheric propagation of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The DBM is based on the hypothesis that the driving Lorentz force, which launches a CME, ceases in the upper corona and that beyond a certain distance the dynamics becomes governed solely by the interaction of the ICME and the ambient solar wind. In particular, we consider the option where the drag acceleration has a quadratic dependence on the ICME relative speed, which is expected in a collisionless environment, where the drag is caused primarily by emission of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves. In this paper we present the simplest version of DBM, where the equation of motion can be solved analytically, providing explicit solutions for the Sun–Earth ICME transit time and impact speed. This offers easy handling and straightforward application to real-time space-weather forecasting. Beside presenting the model itself, we perform an analysis of DBM performances, applying a statistical and case-study approach, which provides insight into the advantages and drawbacks of DBM. Finally, we present a public, DBM-based, online forecast tool.     

Magmatic erosion of the solidification front during reintrusion: the eastern margin of the Tuolumne batholith, Sierra Nevada, California

The Tuolumne batholith, Sierra Nevada, California, consists of several nested granitoid units and is an example of upper-crustal normally zoned intrusions. The two outermost units of the batholith are separated by a wide gradational contact in what is interpreted to represent a large magma chamber. In the Potter Point area near the eastern margin of the batholith, the gradational contact is cross-cut by a network of interconnected mafic–felsic sheets, which grade into zones of magmatic erosion by stoping where the host granodiorite between the sheets was entirely removed and replaced by younger enclave-rich quartz diorite. We interpret these features to record disruption of a steep solidification front, which migrated inwards from the eastern batholith margin and separated the mushy to solidified margin from the remaining active magma chamber. When intersecting the gradational contact, the solidification front started to break up via a network of tectonically driven fractures accompanied by simultaneous injection of localized magma pulses. The solidification front break-up is interpreted here as an initial stage of a “recycling” process, whereby older magma mush is disrupted and incorporated into younger magma batches, a process we propose to have been widespread along internal contacts in the Tuolumne magma chamber.     

Inter-decadal Variability in Phytoplankton Community in the Middle Adriatic (Kaštela Bay) in Relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Evaluation of a 45-year data set of primary production (PP), a 30-year data set of phytoplankton biomass, and a 51-year data set of species composition shows an increase of phytoplankton biomass and abundance in the period from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s. Phytoplankton biomass showed bimodal seasonal cycles, with winter and spring maxima, which did not change over the past 30 years. Diatoms were the most abundant functional group and they prevailed during the colder part of the year while the dinoflagellate contribution to the phytoplankton community increased in the warmer period from May to August. Diatoms showed a significant negative correlation with sea surface temperature (SST), while dinoflagellates were positively correlated with SST. An increase of phytoplankton abundance, particularly dinoflagellate, in the period from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s coincided with years characterized by a high North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Primary production and chlorophyll a concentration in the spring period were negatively correlated with the NAO winter (DJFM) index, probably caused by increased precipitation associated with a low or negative NAO index. PP in winter during the mixing period was positively related to the NAO winter index associated with higher temperatures and dry conditions which brought more clear days and increased input of solar radiation.     

Sensitivity of Ceres-Maize Yields to Statistical Structure of Daily Weather Series

To study impacts of climate variations on cropproduction, the growth models are used to simulateyields in present vs. changed climate conditions.Met&Roll is a four-variate (precipitation amount,solar radiation, minimum and maximum temperatures) stochasticweather generator used to supply synthetic dailyweather series for the crop growth model CERES-Maize.Three groups of experiments were conducted in thisstudy: (1) Validation of Met&Roll reveals some discrepanciesin the statistical structure of synthetic weatherseries, e.g., (i) the frequency of occurrence of longdry spells, extreme values of daily precipitationamount and variability of monthly means areunderestimated by the generator; (ii) correlations andlag-1 correlations among weather characteristicsexhibit a significant annual cycle not assumed by themodel. On the whole, the best fit of the observed andsynthetic weather series is experienced in summermonths. (2) The Wilcoxon test was employed to comparedistributions of maize yields simulated with use ofobserved vs. synthetic weather series. As nostatistically significant differences were detected,it is assumed that the generator imperfections inreproducing the statistical structure of weatherseries negligibly affect the model yields. (3) Thesensitivity of model yields to selectedcharacteristics of the daily weather series wasexamined. Emphasis was placed on the characteristicsnot addressed by typical GCM-based climate changescenarios: daily amplitude of temperature, persistenceof the weather series, shape of the distribution ofdaily precipitation amount, and frequency ofoccurrence of wet days. The results indicate that someof these characteristics may significantly affect cropyields and should therefore be considered in thedevelopment of climate change scenarios.