The origin of Antarctic precipitation: a modelling approach

The contribution of different moisture sources to Antarctic precipitation for present‐day and glacial conditions is estimated with the NASA/GISS Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Despite its low horizontal resolution (8°×10°), this model simulates reasonably well the broad features of the observed present‐day hydrological cycle. Simulated present‐day Antarctic precipitation is dominated throughout the year by moisture from a subtropical/midlatitude band (30°S−60°S). The moisture supplied to a given coastal area of Antarctica originates mostly in the adjacent oceanic basin; closer to the pole, other oceanic basins can also contribute significantly. Replacing the present‐day sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice cover in the GCM with those from the CLIMAP oceanic reconstruction for the last glacial maximum (LGM), greatly increases the simulated latitudinal temperature gradient, with the consequence of slightly enhancing the contribution of low latitude moisture to Antarctic precipitation. It also changes the seasonality of the different contributions and thus their budget, particularly in coastal regions. Because the nature of LGM tropical SSTs is still under debate, we performed an additional LGM simulation in which the tropical SSTs are reduced relative to those of CLIMAP. The resulting decrease in the latitudinal gradient brings the relative contributions to Antarctic precipitation more in line with those of the present‐day simulation.     

MEAN AND VARIANCE CHANGE IN CLIMATE SCENARIOS: METHODS, AGRICULTURAL APPLICATIONS, AND MEASURES OF UNCERTAINTY

Our central goal is to determine the importance of including both mean and variability changes in climate change scenarios in an agricultural context. By adapting and applying a stochastic weather generator, we first tested the sensitivity of the CERES-Wheat model to combinations of mean and variability changes of temperature and precipitation for two locations in Kansas. With a 2°C increase in temperature with daily (and interannual) variance doubled, yields were further reduced compared to the mean only change. In contrast, the negative effects of the mean temperature increase were greatly ameliorated by variance decreased by one-half. Changes for precipitation are more complex, since change in variability naturally attends change in mean, and constraining the stochastic generator to mean change only is highly artificial. The crop model is sensitive to precipitation variance increases with increased mean and variance decreases with decreased mean. With increased mean precipitation and a further increase in variability Topeka (where wheat cropping is not very moisture limited) experiences decrease in yield after an initial increase from the 'mean change only case. At Goodland Kansas, a moisture-limited site where summer fallowing is practiced, yields are decreased with decreased precipitation, but are further decreased when variability is further reduced. The range of mean and variability changes to which the crop model is sensitive are within the range of changes found in regional climate modeling (RegCM) experiments for a CO₂ doubling (compared to a control run experiment). We then formed two types of climate change scenarios based on the changes in climate found in the control and doubled CO₂ experiments over the conterminous U. S. of RegCM: (1) one using only mean monthly changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation; and (2) another that included these mean changes plus changes in daily (and interannual) variability. The scenarios were then applied to the CERES-Wheat model at four locations (Goodland, Topeka, Des Moines, Spokane) in the United States. Contrasting model responses to the two scenarios were found at three of the four sites. At Goodland, and Des Moines mean climate change increased mean yields and decreased yield variability, but the mean plus variance climate change reduced yields to levels closer to their base (unchanged) condition. At Spokane mean climate change increased yields, which were somewhat further increased with climate variability change. Three key aspects that contribute to crop response are identified: the marginality of the current climate for crop growth, the relative size of the mean and variance changes, and timing of these changes. Indices for quantifying uncertainty in the impact assessment were developed based on the nature of the climate scenario formed, and the magnitude of difference between model and observed values of relevant climate variables.     

Chemical composition of the background aerosol at two sites in southwestern and northwestern China: potential influences of regional transport

Concentrations of organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), selected trace elements and water-soluble (WS) ions were determined for samples collected from August 2004 to February 2005 to assess the aerosol background at two remote sites in China. The OC and EC concentrations in PM₁₀ from near the Tibetan Plateau at Zhuzhang (ZUZ) were comparable with other background sites, averaging 3.1 and 0.34 μg m⁻³, respectively, with no pronounced seasonality. At Akdala (AKD) on northern margin of the Zhungaer Basin, the average concentrations were similar (mean OC = 2.9 μg m⁻³ and EC = 0.35 μg m⁻³), but the concentrations were higher in winter. The aerosol mass at both sites was dominated by OC and SO₄²⁻, but a stronger contribution from soil dust was observed at AKD. At ZUZ, NO₃⁻ showed a unique weather-related fluctuation in PM₁₀ with a periodicity of ∼1 week. Anthropogenic sources in the Sichuan Basin and southeastern Yunnan Province evidently influence ZUZ in summer and autumn while pollutants from Russia and the China–Mongolia border affect AKD nearly all year. The identification of these upwind sources demonstrates that transboundary transport needs to be taken into account when assessing air quality in remote parts of China.     

Spatial scaling properties of annual streamflow in the United States

Abstract

The spatial scaling properties of annual average streamflow is examined using records from 1 433 river basins across the continental United States. The log-linear relationship ln(E[Q^r _i]) = a + b_r ln(A_i) is representative throughout the United States, where E[Q^r _i] represents the expectation of the rth moment of annual streamflow at site i, and A_i represents drainage area. The scaling model parameters a_r and b_r follow nearly perfect linear relationships a_r = rα and b_r = rβ throughout the continental United States. We conclude that the probability distribution of annual streamflow follows simple scaling relationships in all regions of the United States. In temperate regions where climate is relatively homogeneous, scale alone describes most of the variability in the moments of annual streamflow. In the more climatically heterogeneous regions, such as in the Upper Colorado and Missouri river basins, scale alone is a poor predictor of the moments of annual flow.     

Coastal peats from northwest Ireland: implications for late-Holocene relative sea-level change and shoreline evolution

Peat and organic rich sediments at coastal sites in extreme northwest Ireland have accumulated in a wide variety of environments, often strongly influenced by late Holocene changes in relative sea level and by geomorphic processes. A deep peat sequence on the coast of Aranmore Island accumulated initially in a lake and subsequently in a freshwater marsh environment. The long pollen record serves as a template for regional events. It extends over much of the Holocene and shows relatively high levels of Pinus pollen up to just before the disappearance of this taxon at c . 3600 BP. Coastal peat occurrences elsewhere are much thinner and have accumulated over shorter periods; they contain further evidence to show that coastal areas were well-wooded compared with today, and that Pinus was an important woodland component prior to c . 4000 BP. At sites in Gweebarra Bay intertidal peats record the closure of small estuaries by geomorphological events during the past 5000 years. Coastal sites at Ballyness, Clonmass, and Trawenagh display regressive stratigraphies ˜ minerogenic marine sediments are overlain by silty peats capped by highly organic freshwater peats. Basal radiocarbon dates range from 4500 to 3300 BP. The silty peats are interpreted as having formed in salt-marsh environments and contain distinctive pollen spectra, marked by high levels of Pinus and Compositae Liguliflorae pollen. The data suggest that relative sea level attained levels close to that of today by the mid-Holocene in this region. The pattern of relative sea-level change agrees well with that predicted by geophysical modelling.     

Alluvial fan and wetland interactions: evidence of seasonal slope wetlands from the Silurian of south central Wales,UK

Distal environs of the Ludlow‐age Trichrug Formation from south central Wales (UK) detail deposition on the outer fringe of an ephemeral debris flow‐dominated alluvial fan. Debrites and subordinate sheetflood deposits are interbedded with sporadic thin sandstone‐dominated heterolithic units deposited in shallow, ephemeral ponds in the axial valley. The latter slope wetland system fringed the permeable alluvial fan deposits, being maintained by streamflow, precipitation and ground water recharge. A prolonged high water table is indicated by low chroma intervals interpreted as the result of gleying. A variety of redoximorphic indicators, including colour mottling and ferricrete concretions, are evidence of iron mobilization and concentration associated with a seasonally fluctuating water table. The slope wetlands were colonized periodically by Skolithos‐generating organisms, most likely to have been arthropods. The widespread occurrence of redoximorphic indicators and ferricrete contrasts markedly with calcrete Vertisols in penecontemporaneous continental deposits (Lower Old Red Sandstone) of the region. It is likely that the alluvial fan‐toe area was the site of a wetland depression, which maintained a high, though fluctuating, water table. In contrast the alluvial channel reaches of the surrounding drainage network were significantly better drained, with floodplains prone to wetting and drying and Vertisol palaeopedogenesis.     

Experimental verification of aeolian saltation and lee side deposition models

We report results of experiments intended to test the validity of a model for aeolian saltation and the resulting pattern of deposition on the lee side of aeolian dunes. In steady sea-breeze conditions on a 3-m-tall dune at Point Año Nuevo, California, we measured simultaneously the near-brink wind speed and the deposition on both horizontal and lee face collector platforms. We then used the details of the deposition patterns to constrain approximate values of parameters in a numerical model of the deposition rate that incorporates the essence of the saltation process. Best fits to the data constrain a parameter that controls the probability distribution of liftoff speeds. In addition, the total vertical number flux of grains is constrained to roughly 10⁷?10⁸ grains m^?2 s^?1 at shear velocities of 0.33–0.40 m s^?1. The lee side deposition pattern, which shows the expected maximum in deposition rate at a distance of several decimetres from the brink, is also well fit by the model. In addition, simultaneous collection of horizontal and lee deposition patterns, along with the numerical simulation of these patterns, strongly implies that the windfield in the lee of this particular dune is best described as a non-recirculating wake. Grainflows on the lee face are caused by failure of grainfall depositional bumps. Our results suggest that the principal effect of increased wind speed is to increase the frequency of grainflows. rather than to increase their size, implying that very large, thick grainflows require a different mechanism.