THE MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF b-VALUE IN MAGNITUDE-FREQUENCY RELATION AND ANALYSIS OF ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS

b-value in the magnitude-frequency(G-R)relationship plays a vital role in seismicity research and seismic hazard analysis, and the most commonly used techniques to simulate it are least square approach and maximum likelihood method. Least square method is simple and easy to apply, therefore widely used in China. However, many researches show that there exist some limits in least square estimation of b-value. Earthquakes with different magnitudes are not equally weighted in this method, and larger events have higher weights, so b-value is vulnerable to the fluctuation of several big earthquakes; meanwhile, least square method needs to divide magnitude intervals artificially. With a small sample size, data points could be not enough if the magnitude interval is too wide, and events in a magnitude interval may be lacking if it is divided to be too narrow. Especially for incremental G-R relationship, it is possible that N(M_i)equals 0 in an interval with large magnitude, so log(N(M_i))loses meaning and has to be ignored, resulting in a low b-value. Therefore, under certain conditions, maximum likelihood method is recommended as an effective substitution or supplementary for least square estimation of b-value. Among numerous previous researches on maximum likelihood estimation of b-value, lots of equations have been provided, based on varied implicit assumptions and different ways of solution. A brief overview is first presented for these equations, and classification and summary are provided based on whether taking account of the effect of binned magnitude, with finite maximum magnitude, using unequal observation periods for different magnitude intervals, and with analytic solution or not. Following this, a total of 6 influential factors are analyzed, such as binning magnitude, measurement errors of magnitude, sample size, magnitude span, minimum completeness magnitude and fore- and aftershocks. At last, reasonable suggestions are provided for using those equations properly. The equations of Aki(1965), Utsu(1965), Page(1968)and Kijko and Smit(2012)are based on assumption that magnitudes are continuous random variables, and have no corrections for this, so these equations are not recommended here. For simplicity, the equations of Utsu(1966)or Tinti and Mulargia(1987)can be used, but magnitude span should be greater than 2.5 due to without finite maximum magnitude in the formulas. For researchers having capability to write code and calculate numerically, Weichert(1980)or Bender(1983)'s algorithm could be utilized. Especially when it is required to apply data with different observation periods for varied magnitudes, the formula of Weichert(1980)is recommended. This study contributes to more accurately understand and use different formulas of estimating b-value by maximum likelihood technique, which can be used as reference for peers.     

DETERMINATION OF SLIP RATE ON THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE ANNINGHE FAULT

The Anninghe Fault has been suggested as an important segment of the fault system along the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan faulted block in the southeastern region of the Tibetan plateau. Reliable determination of the Late Quaternary slip rate on the Anninghe Fault is very helpful and significant for revealing deformation mechanism and kinematic characteristics of the Sichuan-Yunnan faulted block, which further helps us understand fault activity and seismic potential of the region. However, previous studies were focused mainly on the northern segment of the Anninghe Fault, while slip rate on its southern segment has been less studied. Therefore, in this paper, we chose two sites at Dashuigou and Maoheshan on the southern segment of the Anninghe Fault, and used high-resolution images of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)photogrammetry technology, detailed field survey, multiple paleoseismic trenching and radiocarbon dating methods to constrain slip rate on the southern fault segment of the Anninghe Fault. Specifically, we suggest that the slip rate at the Dashuigouo site is narrowly constrained to be~4.4mm/a since about 3^￣￣300a^￣￣BP based on a linear regression calculation method, and speculate that a slip rate of 2.6~5.2mm/a at the Maoheshan site would be highly possible, although we poorly constrained the whole deformation amount of the two branch faults at the Maoheshan site from multiple paleoseismic trenching. The data at the two sites on the southern segment show a consistent slip rate compared with that of the northern segment of the Anninghe Fault. Moreover, considering a similar paleoseismic recurrence interval on the two segments of the Anninghe Fault from previous studies, we further suggest that the fault activity and deformation pattern on the two segments of the Annignhe Fault appears to be well consistent, which is also in agreement with the regional tectonic deformation.     

PRIMARILY STUDY ON FEATURES OF SURFACE RUPTURES INDUCED BY THE 2016 MW7.8 KARKOURA EARTHQUAKE,NEW ZEALAND

The surface ruptures produced by the 2016 M_W7.8 Karkoura earthquake, New Zealand are distributed in a belt with~170km long and~35km wide, trending generally in the NE-SW direction. There are at least 12 faults on which meter-scale displacements are identified and they were formed across two distinct seismotectonic provinces with fundamental different characteristics(Hamling et al., 2017; Litchfield et al., 2017). Although the trending directions of the seismic surface ruptures vary greatly at different locations, the ruptured faults can be generally divided into two groups with the NE to NEE direction and the NNW to N direction, respectively. The faults in the NNW-near NS direction are nearly parallel with 40~50km apart and featured by reverse movement with the maximum displacement of 5~6m. The faults in the NE-NNE direction, with the maximum of 25~30km apart are not continuous and featured by the dextral strike slip with the largest displacement of 10~12m. Even if some faults along the NE-NEE direction are end to end connected, their strikes differ by about 30°. The combination styles of the strike-slip fault surface ruptures along the NE-NEE direction can be merged into 3 categories, including en-echelon, bifurcation and parallel patterns. The scales of the fault surface ruptures with the same structural style could be obviously different in different areas, which results in significant changes in the widths of deformation zone, from tens of meters to hundreds of meters. En-echelon distributed surface rupture(section)can appear as a combination belt of meter-scale to dozens of meter-scale shear fracture with bulge and compressional shear fractures, and also can be characterized by the combination of the left-step en-echelon tensile shear fractures with a length of more than one hundred meters. The step-overs between surface rupture sections are clearly different in sizes, which can be dozens of meters, hundreds of meters to several kilometers. The spacing between parallel surface ruptures can be several meters, dozens of meters to several kilometers. Besides, as one of the prominent characteristics, the seismic surface ruptures caused by the Karkoura earthquake broke through the known distribution pattern of active faults. The surface ruptures can occur either on the previously thought inactive or unmapped faults, or break through the distribution range of previously realized active faults in the striking or lateral direction. The basic features about the distribution and widths of the surface ruptures induced by the 2016 M_W7.8 Karkoura earthquake, New Zealand presented in this paper might be helpful for understanding some seismic problems such as complex corresponding relationship between the active faults and the deep seismogenic structure, and the necessary measurements for engineering crossing active faults.     

中国土地利用变化生态环境效应的空间分异性与形成机理

中国复杂的自然要素、社会经济要素、区域发展战略和政策调控形成了当前中国不均衡的经济发展空间格局、土地利用空间格局和生态环境质量空间格局。厘清中国生态环境质量的空间格局及形成机理对中国土地资源的可持续利用和生态环境的有效保护具有重要的实践意义和价值。以往研究缺乏对中国县域尺度土地利用/土地覆被变化生态环境效应的空间分异性及形成机理的相关研究,本研究基于1995—2015年间中国土地利用现状遥感监测数据,尝试采用生态环境质量指数方法测度中国土地利用变化的生态环境效应,并且综合运用重心分析、热点分析工具（Getis-Ord G_i*）和地理探测器等研究方法,分析1995—2015年中国生态环境质量时空演变特征及形成机理。研究结果如下：① 东部季风区生态环境质量指数高于青藏高寒区和西北干旱区,东部季风区生态环境质量低值区主要分布在人口和经济集聚的城市群以及省会城市周边地区。研究期间中国生态环境质量重心持续向西北方向迁移;② 1995—2015年间中国生态环境质量变化的热点区域主要分布在西藏地区、新疆、重庆、贵州以及位于黄土高原的省份（青海、甘肃、宁夏、内蒙古、山西、陕西以及河南）境内,冷点区域主要分布在长江经济带沿线地区省份以及东南部沿海地区省份;③ 土地利用程度对于生态环境质量影响力显著强于其他因子,东部季风区的社会经济和交通区位因子对生态环境质量影响力强于青藏高寒区、西北干旱区和生态大区过渡带;④ 影响因子之间相互作用主要包括非线性增强作用和双因子增强作用两种类型,以非线性增强作用为主。     

地热井钻井液对井壁温度分布的影响研究

地热井钻井作业时,井深越大,井眼温度越高,给钻探施工造成的难度越大,因此有必要研究井内循环温度分布。通过分析钻井液循环时热量传导过程,利用井筒温度控制方程,结合雄安新区地热井工程实例中的各项参数,使用全隐式有限差分法求解方程,求解井内钻井液循环时各部分的温度分布。且通过方程模拟研究了钻井液的密度、粘度、排量等工程参数对井壁温度分布的影响,结果表明：钻井液密度、粘度、排量越大,井壁温度越低,井底附近的井壁温度降低幅度越大,其中钻井液的排量改变对井壁温度分布的影响最大。模拟研究结果对于现场施工设计有一定的参考价值。     

勘探平硐施工技术与掘进装备发展现状

平硐勘探是在进行水利水电勘察时,获取山体周围区域的地质参数,全面了解地层情况的一种技术手段。在勘查工作中,首先的目标是查明建筑物的工程地质条件或特殊的地质问题,如断层、夹层等,并进行现场的原位测试和试验。因此,平硐勘探施工技术在重要工程勘察中占据十分重要的地位。如何加快施工进度、缩短工期、解决平硐施工中的难题是这项技术主要的研究方向。目前,平硐的施工工艺和掘进装备已有一定的发展,但是针对勘探平硐开拓技术和相关专用装备的研究仍处于起步阶段。本文主要论述了平硐施工工艺和掘进装备的发展现状,分析其特点及局限性,将不同施工方法的综合性能进行对比,并针对勘探平硐技术发展的实际问题进行分析,探讨了钻孔劈裂方法在勘探平硐中的优势以及适用性,最后基于施工工艺对勘探平硐掘进装备的发展方向进行了展望。     

基于功率变化的移动终端欺骗干扰检测方法

对欺骗信号的功率检测是目前最常用的欺骗检测方法之一,但欺骗源可以通过调整发射的信号功率,仍然可实现对环形范围内所有终端的欺骗攻击．针对该问题,本文提出了一种基于信号功率变化的移动终端欺骗干扰检测方法,该方法利用了真实卫星和欺骗源与终端在距离上差异的本质属性,通过终端运动情况下真实信号与欺骗信号在相同距离上信号功率变化的不同,实现对近距离欺骗干扰源的有效检测．本文建立了移动终端导航信号功率变化模型,并在此基础上给出了针对欺骗信号的二元假设检验方法．通过理论分析和仿真实验,验证了本文提出的基于信号功率变化的移动终端欺骗干扰检测技术的有效性,当干扰源距离终端小于2 000 m,终端运动距离大于200 m即可实现在1％的虚警概率下实现对97％以上欺骗攻击的有效检测．      

基于检查信息分层的“粗反馈”最终检查模式

“二级检查一级验收”作为测绘单位质量控制的基本制度,在成果质量保障中发挥着重要作用,但是部分单位因整改质量不高,造成在最终检查环节上执行不顺畅。通过质检实践,总结了常规最终检查模式下整改中存在的问题,针对基础测绘项目中整改效果不明显的实际情况,在常规检查模式的基础上提出了基于检查信息分层的粗反馈最终检查模式,并通过应用实例验证了该模式在提升整改质量中的有效性和实用性。     

鸭绿江河口地区沉积物的粒度变化及影响因素

通过对比鸭绿江河口不同地区柱状样的粒度参数及敏感组分变化规律,分析了河口不同地区沉积动力环境和沉积特征的差异;结合代表性柱状样的210Pb测年,分析了柱状样在不同时期自然和人类活动影响下的沉积特征变化。结果表明,西水道主要受潮流作用而含有泥沙互层,粒度参数变化小;西岸潮滩受潮流和波浪作用含有贝壳碎屑,并在顶部出现粗化层。近几十年来,鸭绿江河口地区沉积特征的变化主要由于人类活动对水沙入海通量的影响:1941年以前柱状样的波动沉积特征反映了河流山溪性特征;1941—1970(1980)年随水沙入海通量减少而呈现砂含量降低、粉砂增加的特征;1970(1980)—1990年由于水沙入海通量变化较小,而呈现沉积物组成和敏感组分保持稳定的特征;但1990年后随水沙入海通量的进一步降低,邻近河口区域的沉积物出现明显的粗化。     

乳山湾外海溶氧低值区细菌多样性初步研究

采用化学裂解法从乳山湾外海溶氧低值区不同溶解氧质量浓度(3.7～7.0mg.L-1)的6个站位海水样品中提取了环境DNA样品。以试剂盒纯化后的DNA样品为模板扩增其16SrRNA基因V3区,通过变性梯度凝胶电泳、分子文库构建及DNA测序对溶氧低值区海水中的细菌群落结构进行研究。结果表明,乳山湾外海溶氧低值区不同溶解氧质量浓度的6个站位底层海水样品中的细菌群落结构是相似的,它们均由隶属于Alteromonas(交替单胞菌属)、Salegentibacter(需盐杆菌属)等10个属的18种细菌组成。系统发育分析发现这些细菌分别属于α变形菌纲(2种)、γ变形菌纲(12种)和黄杆菌纲(3种)三个大类。在乳山湾外海溶氧低值区的海水样品中细菌多样性最高的类群是γ变形菌纲。