对H.Utada“统计评估地震预报方法的困难”一文的答复

Utada 的一些意见(1996)和 Varotsos 等(1996a)讨论的观点是一致的。简单的例子表明 Mulargia 和 Gasperini(1992)的主要结论(即 VAN 预报可归于偶然”)并非由于 VAN 方法的“含混不清”,而是由于他们计算中明显的错误。这些错误也导致了 Varotsos 等(1996a)的附录中所揭示的反论。在纠正了他们的一些错误后,这一反论[即如果我们应用 Mulargia 和 Gasperini(1992)的方法,那么可以得到结论:理想完善的地震预报方法(IPEPM)的结果也可归于偶然]也就不用再提了。     

The difference of economic function and the trends of industrial development in central cities along the Xijiang River

TheXijiangRiveristhemainwaterwayacrosseastandwestinSouthernChina.ItsmaincoursebacksontothewestofGuangdongandthesouthwestofChina,withitsexitthroughHongKong,MacaoandSoutheasternAsia.Ithasawidehinterlandandconvenientwatertransportation.AlongtheXijiangRiver,thecentralcitiesarethecities,whichspreadalongtheXijiangRiver'smaincourse,theZhujiangRiver'sdeltaandoutlet,andBosehasbeenselectedasarepresentativecityintheupperreachesoftheXijiangRiver.Theytotal12cities,includingGuangzhou,Shenzhen,Zhuh…     

Coral reef recovery status in south Andaman Islands after the bleaching event 2010

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are one of the Union Territories of India, located in the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal. In 2010 summer, the increment in sea surface water temperature (up to 34℃) resulted in the bleaching of about 74% to 77% of corals in the South Andaman. During this event, coral species such as Acropora cerealis, A. humilis, Montipora sp., Favia pallida, Diploastrea sp., Goniopora sp. Fungia concinna, Gardineroseries sp., Porites sp., Favites abdita and Lobophyllia robusta were severely affected. This study is to assess the recovery status of the reef ecosystem by estimating the percentage of Live Coral cover, Bleached coral cover, Dead coral with algae, Rubble, Sandy flat, Algal assemblage and other associated organisms. The sedimentation rate (mg cm-2 d-1) and coral coverage (%) were assessed during this study period. The average sedimentation rate was ranged between 0.27 and 0.89 mg cm-2 d-1 . The observed post bleaching recovery of coral cover was 21.1% at Port Blair Bay and 13.29% at Havelock Island. The mortality rate of coral cover due to this bleaching was estimated as 2.05% at Port Blair Bay and 9.82% at Havelock Island. Once the sea water temperature resumed back to the normal condition, most of the corals were found recovered.     

Current and thermohaline characteristics of the Arabian Sea during January 1998

Based on a ship survey during January 1998, the characteristics of the flow, the thermohaline properties and the volume transport of the Arabian Sea are discussed. A strong westward flow exists between 10.5?N and 11?N, part of which turns to the south as the Somali current near the coast at about 10?N and the rest turns north. At the passage between the African continent and the So- cotra Island, the northern branch separates into two flows: the left one enters the passage and the right one flows eastward along the southern slope of the island. Off the island the flow separates once more, most of it meandering northeast and a small fraction flow- ing southeast. Volume transport calculation suggests that the tidal transport is one or two orders of magnitude smaller than the total transport in this region and it becomes more important near the coast. The average velocity of the flow in the upper layer (0-150 m) is about 20 cm s-1, with a maximum of 53 cm s-1 appearing east of the Socotra Island, and the subsurface layer (200-800 m) has an aver- age velocity of 8.6 cm s-1; the velocity becomes smaller at greater depths. The depth of the seasonal thermocline is about 100 m, above which there is a layer with well mixed temperature and dissolved oxygen. High-salinity and oxygen-rich water appears near the surface of the northern Arabian Sea; a salinity maximum and oxygen minimum at 100 m depth along 8?N testifies the subduction of surface water from the northern Arabian Sea. Waters from the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf also influence the salinity of the area.     

Effect of growth phase on the fatty acid compositions of four species of marine diatoms

The fatty acid compositions of four species of marine diatoms (Chaetoceros gracilis MACC/B13, Cylindrotheca fusiformis MACC/B211, Phaeodactylum tricornutum MACC/B221 and Nitzschia closterium MACC/B222), cultivated at 22 ℃±1 ℃ with the salinity of 28 in f/2 medium and harvested in the exponential growth phase, the early stationary phase and the late stationary phase, were determined. The results showed that growth phase has significant effect on most fatty acid contents in the four species of marine diatoms. The proportions of 16:0 and 16: 1n-7 fatty acids increased while those of 16 :3n-4 and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) decreased with increasing culture age in all species studied. The subtotal of saturated fatty acids (SFA) increased with the increasing culture age in all species with the exception of B13. The subtotal of monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) increased while that of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) decreased with culture age in the four species of marine diatoms. MUFA reached their lowest value in the exponential growth phase, whereas PUFA reached their highest value in the same phase.     

Resource Flows of Villages with Contrasting Lifestyles in Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, Central Himalaya, India

Resource use efficiency analyses of village ecosystem are necessary for effective and efficient planning of resource utilization. This paper deals with economic and energy input-output analyses of different components of village ecosystem in representative buffer zone villages, which are practicing transhumance and settled way of lifestyles in Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve （NDBR） of Garhwal Himalaya. While the villages practicing transhumance used various natural resources spatially segregated,the villages practicing settled way of lifestyle have to manage resources from a limited spatial area through rotation and varied extraction intensities. Forests subsidized the production activity in both type of villages and the per capita resource extractions were found to be greater in tran~humance village than settled village. Though crops provided maximum energy, in terms of economic criteria, animal husbandry played important role in both settled and transhumance villages. As villages representing both the situations showed different ways of adjustments to the conservation oriented land use changes, management authority needs to address the eco-development plans fulfilling the aspirations of all people traditionally using the resources of the Reserve to reduce the conflicts and encourage their participation in the conservation of the area.     

Riparian vegetation dynamics across two different landscapes along the river Cauvery in the Kodagu region of Western Ghats

Decades of commercial planting and other anthropogenic processes are posing a threat to the riparian landscapes of the Cauvery river basin, which supports a high floral diversity. Despite this, the habitats in the upstream sections of the River Cauvery are still intact, as they are located in sacred groves. To understand the dynamism of riparian forests exposed to anthropogenic pressures, the upstream stretch of Cauvery extending from Kushalanagara to Talacauvery (~102 km) was categorized into two landscapes: agro ecosystem and sacred (i.e. preserved). The tree species were sampled using belt transects at 5 km intervals and the regeneration status of endemic species assessed using quadrats. A total of 128 species belonging to 47 families, and representing 1,590 individuals, was observed. Amongst them, 65% of unique species were exclusive to sacred landscapes. A rarefaction plot confirmed higher species richness for the sacred compared to the agro ecosystem landscapes, and diversity indices with more evenness in distribution were evident in sacred landscapes. A significant loss of endemic tree species in the agro ecosystem landscapes was found. Overall, this study demonstrates that an intense biotic pressure in terms of plantations and other anthropogenic activities have altered the species composition of the riparian zone in non-sacred areas. A permanent policy implication is required for the conservation of riparian buffers to avoid further ecosystem degradation and loss of biodiversity.     

Metabolic plasticity of nitrogen assimilation by Porphyra umbilicalis (Linnaeus) Kützing

The physical stresses associated with emersion have long been considered major factors determining the vertical zonation of intertidal seaweeds.We examined Porphyra umbilicalis(Linnaeus) Kützing thalli from the vertical extremes in elevation of an intertidal population(i.e.upper and lower intertidal zones) to determine whether Porphyra thalli acclimate to different vertical elevations on the shore with different patterns of nitrate uptake and nitrate reductase(NR) and glutamine synthetase(GS) activities in response to different degrees of emersion stress.We found that the nitrate uptake and NR recovery in the emersed tissues took longer in lower intertidal sub-population than in upper intertidal sub-population;and GS activity was also significantly affected by emersion and,interestingly,such an activity was enhanced by emersion of thalli from both upper and lower intertidal zones.These results suggested that intra-population variability in post-emersion recovery of physiological functions such as nutrient uptake and NR activity enables local adaptation and contributes to the wide vertical distribution of P.umbilicalis.The high GS activity during periodic emersion stress may be a protective mechanism enabling P.umbilicalis to assimilate nitrogen quickly when it again becomes available,and may also be an evidence of photorespiration during emersion.