Intercomparison of IRS-P4-MSMR derived geophysical products with DMSP-SSM/I and TRMM-TMI finished products

In this paper, MSMR geophysical products like Integrated Water Vapour (IWV), Ocean Surface Wind Speed (OWS) and Cloud Liquid Water (CLW) in different grids of 50, 75 and 150 kms are compared with similar products available from other satellites like DMSP-SSM/I and TRMMTMI. MSMR derived IWV, OWS and CLW compare well with SSM/I and TMI finished products. Comparison of MSMR derived CLW with that derived from TMI and SSM/I is relatively in less agreement. This is possibly due to the use of 37 GHz in SSM/I and TMI that is highly sensitive to CLW, while 37 GHz channels are not available on MSMR. Monthly comparison of MSMR geophysical products with those from TMI is all carried out for climatological purpose. The monthly comparisons were much better compared to instantaneous comparisons. In this paper, details of the data analysis and comparison results are presented. The usefulness of the MSMR vis-à-vis other sensors is also discussed.     

Habitable zones and UV habitable zones around host stars

Ultraviolet radiation is a double-edged sword to life. If it is too strong, the terrestrial biological systems will be damaged. And if it is too weak, the synthesis of many biochemical compounds cannot go along. We try to obtain the continuous ultraviolet habitable zones, and compare the ultraviolet habitable zones with the habitable zones of host stars. Using the boundary ultraviolet radiation of ultraviolet habitable zone, we calculate the ultraviolet habitable zones of host stars with masses from 0.08 to 4.00 M _⊙. For the host stars with effective temperatures lower than 4,600 K, the ultraviolet habitable zones are closer than the habitable zones. For the host stars with effective temperatures higher than 7,137 K, the ultraviolet habitable zones are farther than the habitable zones. For a hot subdwarf as a host star, the distance of the ultraviolet habitable zone is about ten times more than that of the habitable zone, which is not suitable for the existence of life.     

Open and coastal seas interactions south of Japan represented by an ensemble Kalman filter

We investigated the feasibility of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to reproduce oceanic conditions south of Japan. We have adopted the local ensemble transformation Kalman filter algorithm based on 20 members’ ensemble simulations of the parallelized Princeton Ocean Model (the Stony Brook Parallel Ocean Model) with horizontal resolution of 1/36°. By assimilating satellite sea surface height anomaly, satellite sea surface temperature, and in situ temperature and salinity profiles, we reproduced the Kuroshio variation south of Japan for the period from 8 to 28 February 2010. EnKF successfully reproduced the Kuroshio path positions and the water mass property of the Kuroshio waters as observed. It also detected the variation of the steep thermohaline front in the Kii Channel due to the intrusion of the Kuroshio water based on the observation, suggesting efficiency of EnKF for detection of open and coastal seas interactions with highly complicated spatiotemporal variability.     

aiNet- and GIS-based regional prediction system for the spatial and temporal probability of rainfall-triggered landslides

We developed a real-time forecasting system, aiNet-GISPSRIL, for evaluating the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides. In this system, the aiNet (a kind of artificial neutral network based on a self-organizing system) and GIS are merged for integrating the rainfall conditions into various environmental factors that influence the landslide occurrence and for simulating the complex non-linear relationships between landslide occurrence and its related conditions. Zhejiang Province (101,800 km² in area), located in the southeast coastal region of China, is highly prone to the occurrence of landslides during intensive rainfall. Since 2003, the aiNet-GISPSRIL has been used to predict landslides during the rainy seasons in the region. The aiNet-GISPSRIL uses the regional 24-h forecast rainfall information and the real-time rainfall monitoring data from the rain-gauge network as its inputs, and then provides 24-h forecast of the landslide probability for every 1 × 1-km grid cell within the region. Verification studies on the performance of the aiNet-GISPSRIL show that the system has successfully predicted the dates and localities of 304 landslides (accounting for 66.2% of reported landslides during the period). During the period from 2003 to 2007, because the system provided the probability levels of landslide occurrences up to 24-h in advance, gave locations of potential landslides, and timely warned those individuals at high-risk areas, more than 1700 persons living in the risk sites had been evacuated to safe ground before the landslides occurred and thus casualty was avoided. This highly computerized, easy-operating system can be used as a prototype for developing forecasting systems in other regions that are prone to rainfall-triggered landslides.     

Estimates of non-tidal exchange transport between the Sea of Okhotsk and the North Pacific

The outflow from the Sea of Okhotsk to the North Pacific is important in characterising the surface-to-intermediate-depth water masses in the Pacific Ocean. The two basins are separated by the Kuril Islands with numerous straits, among which the Bussol and the Kruzenshterna Straits are deeper than 1000 m. The physics governing the transport between the two basins is complicated, but when the semidiurnal and diurnal tides are subtracted, the observed density and velocity structures across the Bussol Strait suggest a significant contribution from geostrophic balance. Using a two-layer model with the interface at 27.5σ _θ , part of the upper layer transport that is not driven by tides is estimated using two previously unexplored data sets: outputs from the Ocean General Circulation Model for Earth Simulator (OFES), and historical hydrographic data. The Pacific water flows into the Sea of Okhotsk through the northeastern straits. The greatest inflow is through the Kruzenshtern Strait, but the OFES results show that the contributions from other shallower straits are almost half of the Kruzenshtern inflow. Similarly, the outflow from the Sea of Okhotsk is through the southwestern straits of the Kuril Islands with the largest Bussol Strait contributing 60% of the total outflow. The OFES and hydrographic estimates agree that the exchange is strongest in February to March, with an inflow of about −6 to −12 Sv (negative indicates the flow from the North Pacific, 1 Sv = 10⁶ m³s⁻¹), and an outflow from the Sea of Okhotsk of about +8 to +9 Sv (positive indicates the flow from the Sea of Okhotsk), which is weakest in summer (−3 to +1 Sv through the northeastern straits and +0 to +3 Sv through the southwestern straits). The estimated seasonal variation is consistent with a simple analytic model driven by the difference in sea surface height between the two basins.     

义县留龙沟金矿含金矿物特征

本文对留龙沟金矿的矿物成分、共生关系、矿物生成顺序,成矿温度进行了一些研究,为探讨矿床成因提供一些资料。     

Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.     

Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation: A Holistic Approach

Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. However, in the past, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way in many cases, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. From the perspective of this article, risk requires a multidisciplinary evaluation that takes into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or economic losses, but also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which favour the second order effects (indirect effects) when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. The proposed general method of urban risk evaluation is multi hazard and holistic, that is, an integrated and comprehensive approach to guide decision-making. The evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as the result of the convolution of hazard and physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure is the first step of this method. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects are also considered (soft approach). In the method here proposed, the holistic risk evaluation is based on urban risk indicators. According to this procedure, a physical risk index is obtained, for each unit of analysis, from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by factoring the former index by an impact factor or aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. Finally, the proposed method is applied in its single hazard form to the holistic seismic risk evaluation for the cities of Bogota (Colombia) and Barcelona (Spain).