A comparison of performance of several artificial intelligence methods for forecasting monthly discharge time series

Developing a hydrological forecasting model based on past records is crucial to effective hydropower reservoir management and scheduling. Traditionally, time series analysis and modeling is used for building mathematical models to generate hydrologic records in hydrology and water resources. Artificial intelligence (AI), as a branch of computer science, is capable of analyzing long-series and large-scale hydrological data. In recent years, it is one of front issues to apply AI technology to the hydrological forecasting modeling. In this paper, autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models, artificial neural networks (ANNs) approaches, adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) techniques, genetic programming (GP) models and support vector machine (SVM) method are examined using the long-term observations of monthly river flow discharges. The four quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, the coefficient of correlation (R), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (E), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), are employed to evaluate the performances of various models developed. Two case study river sites are also provided to illustrate their respective performances. The results indicate that the best performance can be obtained by ANFIS, GP and SVM, in terms of different evaluation criteria during the training and validation phases.     

基于地方作为主体的芦山地震灾后重建规划组织管理

“4.20”芦山地震灾后重建借鉴了“5.12”汶川地震的经验教训,建立了以地方作为主体的组织管理新机制。据此,基层政府展开了规划建设领域组织管理模式的多元探索,积累的有效经验包括开展规划编制全覆盖,实施城乡规划总牵头,进行灾区空间总管控;在项目建设上实行“五总”管理新模式;针对农房重建这一薄弱环节,通过加强现场监管、建立技术系统、强化公众参与等方式,探索出改进农房建设管理新机制。     

水库大容量气枪震源激发条件优化实验研究

Through manual pickup of seismic phases,the number of recording stations,the farthest observation distance of station and received energy are determined,then optimal operating condition processing software is developed to evaluate the excitation effect of operating conditions. The optimal operating conditions in the Mianhuatan Reservoir are determined using this software. They are: optimal water depth 25 m,airgun array sink depth 9m and airgun array size 7m × 7m. At the same time,accumulative stacking results for every 10 times are analyzed for 300 fixed-point excitations. It is concluded that the excitation effect shows a rapidly rising trend at 10 to 90 times stacking,a slowly rising trend at 100 to 150 times stacking,a rapidly rising trend at 160 to 240 times stacking,and a slowly rising trend at 250 to 300 times stacking. As the number of stacking increases,the propagation distance and the number of recording stations also increase gradually.     

高精度温度计在同层水温平行观测中的互相干扰现象

在2015年4月24日一次意外供电故障中,发现宁波地震台高精度温度计在井水温度同层平行观测中有明显的互相干扰现象。认为目前水温观测到的是水井内实际温度与传感器工作时的"升温值"之和,而"升温值"是动态值,其取决于每套仪器的系统特性,一般可能会在0.01℃以上;相互影响可能在0.005℃以上,如果是捆绑式平行观测可能会更高。所以水温测值的波动范围为10~(-4)℃的观测井中,这种干扰不可忽视,并可能影响前兆异常的提取。因此,在水温波动比较小的观测井(泉)中,不主张做同层平行对比观测。最好在一个传感器内安装2套探测温度装置,既免互相干扰,又可相互验证。     

Biological risk and pollution history of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Nansha mangrove,South China

Chinese government has taken various measures to alleviate pollution caused by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the region of Pearl River Delta since the economic reform in 1978, but the effectiveness of these measures remains largely unknown. This study aimed to elucidate the biological risk and pollution history of PAHs by measuring the concentrations of 28 PAHs in the surface and core sediments, respectively, in Nansha mangrove. Results found that the biological risk of PAHs was low without obvious spatial variation. The PAH concentration along the depth gradient indicated that PAH pollution was stabilized since the early 1990s while the source of PAHs has gradually changed from combustion of coal to petroleum products. This implied that the mitigation measures taken by the Chinese government were effective. Compared to marine bottom sediment, we propose that using mangrove sediment can provide a more accurate and precise estimate of pollution history of PAHs.     

Runoff forecast of drainage basin based on matter element analysis

Runoff from drainage basins is a nonlinear process subject to the comprehensive influences of various factors, such as rainfall characteristics and underlying surface conditions. Matter element analysis is endowed with forecast function by using prior forecast factors. By repeatedly adjusting the grade division value (classical domain and joint domain) of each factor, the fitting rate of the calculation grade of the drainage basin to the actual grade is maximized, which results in more accurate results. The results demonstrate that this technique is a new and effective method of forecasting runoff in drainage basins.     

2014 年云南盈江Ms 6.1 地震震源机制研究

利用中国数字地震台网记录的区域宽频带波形,通过频率域和时间域多步反演,研究了2014年云南盈江Ms6.1地震基于点源模型的震源机制解和有限断层模型.考虑到使用不同的波形资料类型和简化的一维速度模型等因素对震源参数反演结果的影响,进行了大量的测试比较.结果表明,使用近震波形和本区域简化一维速度模型M1,波形拟合误差最小.基于点源模型的震源机制解显示此次地震发震断层面参数分别为:走向176°/倾角84°/滑动角-173°,表现为一次右旋走滑错动为主的事件.矩心在水平方向上位于震中(24.99°N,97.84.E)北东向约7km,最佳波形拟合矩心深度7km.平均总标量地震矩M0为7.56×1017N·m,计算成矩震级为Mw5.8.进一步模拟高达0.5Hz的高频波形,获得了盈江地震的有限断层模型,结果显示此次地震未表现出明显的破裂方向性.破裂半径约10km,整个破裂面积为267.2km2,平均滑动量约0.05m,破裂在5 s内释放了大多数能量.震后0～2s内,破裂以孕震点为中心向四周同时扩展,在深度7～ 17km内释放了部分能量.2s后,破裂朝断层面顶部和沿走向两侧进一步延伸,约5s后破裂基本停止.     

Strong ground motion simulation for the 2013 Lushan M_W6.6 earthquake,Sichuan, China,based on the inverted and synthetic slip models

It is well known that quantitative estimation of slip distributions on fault plane is one of the most important issues for earthquake source inversion related to the fault rupture process. The characteristics of slip distribution on the main fault play a fundamental role to control strong ground motion pattern. A large amount of works have also suggested that variable slip models inverted from longer period ground motion recordings are relevant for the prediction of higher frequency ground motions. Zhang et al. （Chin J Geophys 56：1412-1417, 2013） and Wang et al. （Chin J Geophys 56：1408-1411,2013） published their source inversions for the fault rupturing process soon after the April 20, 2013 Lushan earthquake in Sichuan, China. In this study, first, we synthesize two forward source slip models： the value of maximum slip, fault dimension, size, and dimension of major asperities, and comer wave number obtained from Wang＇s model is adopted to constrain the gen- eration of k-2 model and crack model. Next, both inverted and synthetic slip models are employed to simulate the ground motions for the Lushan earthquake based on the stochastic finite-fault method. In addition, for a comparison purpose, a stochastic slip model and another k-2 model （k 2 model II） with 2 times value of comer wave number of the original k-2 model （k 2 model I） are also employed for simulation for Lushan event. The simulated results characterized by Modified Mer- calli Intensity （MMI） show that the source slip models based on the inverted and synthetic slip distributions could capture many basic features associated with the ground motion patterns. Moreover, the simulated MMI distributions reflect the rupture directivity effect and the influence of the shallow velocity structure well. On the other hand, the simulated MMI bystochastic slip model and k 2 model II is apparently higher than observed intensity. By contrast, our simulation results show that the higher frequency ground motion is sensitive to the degree of sli     

A hybrid inversion method of damped least squares with simulated annealing used for Rayleigh wave dispersion curve inversion

Surface wave methods are becoming increasingly popular in many geotechnical applications and in earthquake seismology due to their noninvasive characteristics.Inverse surface wave dispersion curves are a crucial step in most surface wave methods.Many inversion methods have been applied to surface wave dispersion curve inversion,including linearized inversion and nonlinearized inversion methods.In this study,a hybrid inversion method of Damped Least Squares(DLS) with Very Fast Simulated Annealing(VFSA) is developed for multi-mode Rayleigh wave dispersion curve inversion.Both synthetic and in situ fi eld data were used to verify the validity of the proposed method.The results show that the proposed method is superior to the conventional VFSA method in aiming at global minimum,especially when parameter searching space is adjacent to real values of the parameters.The advantage of the new method is that it retains both the merits of VFSA for global search and DLS for local search.At high temperatures,the global search dominates the runs,while at a low temperatures,the local search dominates the runs.Thus,at low temperatures,the proposed method can almost directly approach the actual model.     

松辽盆地梨树断陷页岩气资源潜力评价

松辽盆地梨树断陷纵向上发育白垩系沙河子组和营城组两套主力泥页岩烃源岩层系,其沉积环境有利、厚度大、分布广。沙河子组以Ⅱ段页岩气地质条件最好,其w(TOC)分布范围为0.11%~8.20%(平均值1.45%);营城组发育两段优质泥页岩,Ⅰ段w(TOC)为0.26%~12.01%(平均值1.96%),Ⅱ段w(TOC)为0.06%~5.03%(平均值1.06%)。有机质类型以Ⅱ₁-Ⅲ型为主,含少量I型。沙河子组R_o普遍较高,断陷西部基本进入过成熟阶段,缓坡带处于成熟-高成熟阶段。营城组R_o变化范围较大,小城子、孤家子和十屋地区R_o达到2.00%以上。两套泥页岩脆性矿物体积分数为32.10%~62.90%,具有较好的储集性能。断陷内有多口探井在沙河子组和营城组的厚层泥页岩段钻遇高气测显示。营城组I段泥页岩含气量为0.62~3.09 m³/t。采用概率法初步预测出沙河子组和营城组页岩气资源量为6 645.34× 10⁸ m³。秦家屯地区和苏家屯次洼为页岩气勘探的有利目标区,桑树台深洼带为较有利目标区。