Arctic multiyear sea ice variability observed from satellites: a review

In comparison with seasonal sea ice(first-year ice,FY ice),multiyear(MY) sea ice is thicker and has more opportunity to survive through the summer melting seasons.Therefore,the variability of wintertime MY ice plays a vital role in modulating the variations in the Arctic sea ice minimum extent during the following summer.As a response,the ice-ocean-atmosphere interactions may be significantly affected by the variations in the MY ice cover.Satellite observations are characterized by their capability to capture the spatiotemporal changes of Arctic sea ice.During the recent decades,many active and passive sensors onboard a variety of satellites(QuikSCAT,ASCAT,SSMIS,ICESat,CryoSat-2,etc.) have been used to monitor the dramatic loss of Arctic MY ice.The main objective of this study is to outline the advances and remaining challenges in monitoring the MY ice changes through the utilization of multiple satellite observations.We summarize the primary satellite data sources that are used to identify MY ice.The methodology to classify MY ice and derive MY ice concentration is reviewed.The interannual variability and trends in the MY ice time series in terms of coverage,thickness,volume,and age composition are evaluated.The potential causes associated with the observed Arctic MY ice loss are outlined,which are primarily related to the export and melting mechanisms.In addition,the causes to the MY ice depletion from the perspective of the oceanic water inflow from Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the water vapor intrusion,as well as the roles of synoptic weather,are analyzed.The remaining challenges and possible upcoming research subjects in detecting the rapidly changing Arctic MY ice using the combined application of multisource remote sensing techniques are discussed.Moreover,some suggestions for the future application of satellite observations on the investigations of MY ice cover changes are proposed.     

基于多种高分辨率卫星数据的TRMM降水数据降尺度研究——以内蒙古地区为例

利用内蒙古地区2001~2010年42个站点实测降水数据作为“真值”,采用LOO（Leave-One-Out）交叉验证、多元逐步回归等方法,构建TRMM（Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission）降水数据与地形及气候等要素之间的多元回归关系,在此基础上,利用回归值+残差值的方法,获得空间分辨率为1 km×1 km的TRMM年降水数据,并对降尺度TRMM数据进行精度检验。研究表明：① TRMM数据可用于区域年降水量估计,且与实测年降水量呈显著线性关系;② 通过建立不同年份、不同空间分辨率TRMM数据与其它遥感数据的多元统计模型,研究发现在中尺度下TRMM与观测年降水数据拟合效果较好,且在空间分辨率为0.50°×0.50°时的拟合效果最好;③ 降尺度分析提高了TRMM数据对研究区降水时空特征的描述能力,确定性系数、标准误差和偏差均有明显改善,表明降尺度算法在将TRMM降水数据空间分辨率提高到1 km×1 km的同时,并能提高降水数据的精度。     

中国年和季节极端降水时空特征 及极值分布函数上尾部性质

基于热带气旋时间、路径、强度数据和中国728个气象站点1951~2014年日降水数据,分析了年和季节极端降水广义极值（GEV）分布函数特征及受热带气旋的影响。通过检查年和各季节极端降水的非一致性,发现具有变异点或显著时间趋势的站点占总站点数的比例较低。仅考虑满足一致性的站点,年和各季节极端降水GEV分布上尾部在全国大部分区域表现出厚尾特征,且不具有上边界。总体来看北方厚尾特征重于南方,秋季和冬季明显高于年和夏季。年极端降水厚尾特征受到不同季节极端降水机制的混合影响。而且,热带气旋对中国沿海区域极端降水有重要影响,往往引发大量级极端降水。东南沿海地区最大10场极端降水由热带气旋引发的比例达到60%以上。因此热带气旋趋向于增加沿海区域年极端降水GEV分布形状参数的大小,并控制着曲线上尾部的形状。     

基于空间组合特征的农村居民点重构方向识别

基于湖北省大冶市陈贵镇2012年土地利用变更调查数据,运用核密度估计和空间热点探测法,分析镇域农村居民点空间分布特征,提出一种顾及居民点密度与规模组合特征的农村居民点重构方向识别方法。根据密度与规模的空间组合特征,将全镇农村居民点划分为7种类型,结合改进成本距离测算大规模居民点区有效覆盖范围,提出了城镇化集中型、中心村建设型、协同整治型和内部改造型4种重构模式,明确了规模与密度特征导向下的农村居民点的整治重心和重构方向。     

Distribution of organochlorine pesticides in soils of Dashiwei Karst Tiankeng (giant doline) area in South China

Surface soil samples were collected in two karst Tiankengs, Dashiwei and Datuo, situated within the Dashiwei Tiankeng group, located in Leye County of Guangxi province, South China. The soil samples were analyzed for 23 kinds of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) using a gas chromatography electron capture detector device. The results showed that the concentrations of OCPs in soils of Dashiwei Tiankeng ranged from 0.03 to 5.13 ng/g for total OCPs, not detectable (ND) to 0.22 ng/g for Hexachlorocyclohexane (HCHs), and 0.01 to 3.61 ng/g for Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and metabolites (DDTs). Concentration of the total OCPs in soils of Datuo Tiankeng ranged from 0.13 to 14.36 ng/g, ND to 0.39 ng/g for HCHs, and 0.01 to 3.28 ng/g for DDTs. These concentrations indicated that there could be new inputs of HCHs and DDTs from recent application of lindane and dicofol in this area. Further analysis also revealed that the concentration of OCPs at the bottom of both Tiankengs was higher than the top. The variability in concentrations between the top and the bottom was attributed to the “cold trapping effect” for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in karst Tiankeng topography. The difference in temperature between the top and bottom of Tiankeng is a predominating factor which can cause a POPs “cold trapping effect.” Other environmental factors are proposed to explain the difference in concentration such as humidity, topography (or slope), wind speed, wind direction, solar radiation, vegetation cover, and soil organic matter. The environmental condition of Dashiwei Tiankeng appears to favor the accumulation of OCPs than that of Datuo Tiankeng because Dashiwei Tiankeng is a matured Tiankeng but Datuo Tiankeng is a degraded one. Thus, there is the need for further studies on the environmental factors influencing distribution of OCPs in karst Tiankeng.     

System Reliability Assessment for a Rock Tunnel with Multiple Failure Modes

This paper presents a practical procedure for assessing the system reliability of a rock tunnel. Three failure modes, namely, inadequate support capacity, excessive tunnel convergence, and insufficient rockbolt length, are considered and investigated using a deterministic model of ground-support interaction analysis based on the convergence–confinement method (CCM). The failure probability of each failure mode is evaluated from the first-order reliability method (FORM) and the response surface method (RSM) via an iterative procedure. The system failure probability bounds are estimated using the bimodal bounds approach suggested by Ditlevsen (1979), based on the reliability index and design point inferred from the FORM. The proposed approach is illustrated with an example of a circular rock tunnel. The computed system failure probability bounds compare favorably with those generated from Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the relative importance of different failure modes to the system reliability of the tunnel mainly depends on the timing of support installation relative to the advancing tunnel face. It is also shown that reliability indices based on the second-order reliability method (SORM) can be used to achieve more accurate bounds on the system failure probability for nonlinear limit state surfaces. The system reliability-based design for shotcrete thickness is also demonstrated.     

实行预算管理健全企业内部控制体系

预算管理是按照企业制定的发展战略目标,将目标分层次下达企业内部各环节,以一系列预算、控制、协调、考核为内容建立的一套完整、科学的数据处理系统,自始至终地将经济单位经营目标责任制与经营活动全过程进行控制管理的一种方法。随着我国经济体制改革步伐的加快,市场经济日臻完善。预算管理作为一种重要的管理工具,它能够帮助管理者进行计划、协调、控制和业绩考评,对建立现代企业制度、提高管理水平、增强未来竞争力有着十分重要的意义。     

Simultaneous X-ray/optical observations of GX 9+9 (4U 1728−16)

We report on the results of the first simultaneous X-ray ( RXTE ) and optical [South African Astronomical Observatory (SAAO)] observations of the luminous low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) GX 9+9 in 1999 August. The high-speed optical photometry revealed an orbital period of 4.1958 h and confirmed previous observations, but with greater precision. No X-ray modulation was found at the orbital period. On shorter time-scales, a possible 1.4-h variability was found in the optical light curves which might be related to the MHz quasi-periodic oscillations seen in other LMXBs. We do not find any significant X-ray/optical correlation in the light curves. In X-rays, the colour–colour and hardness-intensity diagrams indicate that the source shows characteristics of an atoll source in the upper banana state, with a correlation between intensity and spectral hardness. Time-resolved X-ray spectroscopy suggests that two-component spectral models give a reasonable fit to the X-ray emission. Such models consist of a blackbody component which can be interpreted as the emission from an optically thick accretion disc or an optically thick boundary layer, and a hard Comptonized component for an extended corona.     

XMM–Newton observations of the black hole X-ray transient XTE J1650–500 in quiescence

We report the result of an XMM–Newton observation of the black hole X-ray transient XTE J1650–500 in quiescence. The source was not detected, and we set upper limits on the 0.5–10 keV luminosity of  0.9–1.0 × 10³¹ erg s⁻¹  (for a newly derived distance of 2.6 kpc). These limits are in line with the quiescent luminosities of black hole X-ray binaries with similar orbital periods (∼7–8 h).