Long-Term Changes in Water Quality and Productivity in the Patuxent River Estuary: 1985 to 2003

We conducted a quantitative assessment of estuarine ecosystem responses to reduced phosphorus and nitrogen loading from sewage treatment facilities and to variability in freshwater flow and nonpoint nutrient inputs to the Patuxent River estuary. We analyzed a 19-year dataset of water quality conditions, nutrient loading, and climatic forcing for three estuarine regions and also computed monthly rates of net production of dissolved O₂ and physical transport of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and phosphorus (DIP) using a salt- and water-balance model. Point-source loading of DIN and DIP to the estuary declined by 40–60% following upgrades to sewage treatment plants and correlated with parallel decreases in DIN and DIP concentrations throughout the Patuxent. Reduced point-source nutrient loading and concentration resulted in declines in phytoplankton chlorophyll-a (chl-a) and light-saturated carbon fixation, as well as in bottom-layer O₂ consumption for upper regions of the estuary. Despite significant reductions in seaward N transport from the middle to lower estuary, chl-a, turbidity, and surface-layer net O₂ production increased in the lower estuary, especially during summer. This degradation of water quality in the lower estuary appears to be linked to a trend of increasing net inputs of DIN into the estuary from Chesapeake Bay and to above-average river flow during the mid-1990s. In addition, increased abundance of Mnemiopsis leidyi significantly reduced copepod abundance during summer from 1990 to 2002, which favored increases in chl-a and allowed a shift in total N partitioning from DIN to particulate organic nitrogen. These analyses illustrate (1) the value of long-term monitoring data, (2) the need for regional scale nutrient management that includes integrated estuarine systems, and (3) the potential water quality impacts of altered coastal food webs.     

Tracing the exhumation of the Eclogite Zone (Tauern Window,Eastern Alps) by <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar dating of white mica in eclogites

New radiometric ages from the Subpenninic nappes (Eclogite Zone and Rote Wand – Modereck Nappe, Tauern Window) show that phengites formed under eclogite-facies metamorphic conditions retain their initial isotopic signature, even when associated lithologies were overprinted by greenschist- to amphibolite-facies metamorphism. Different stages of the eclogite-facies evolution can be dated provided ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating is combined with micro-structural analyses. An age of 39 Ma from the Rote Wand – Modereck Nappe is interpreted to be close to the burial age of this unit. Eclogite deformation within the Eclogite Zone started at the pressure peak along distinct shear zones, and prevailed along the exhumation path. An age of ca. 38 Ma is only observed for eclogites not affected by subsequent deformation and is interpreted as maximum age due to the possible influence of homogenously distributed excess argon. During exhumation deformation was localised along distinct mylonitic shear zones. This stage is mainly characterised by the formation of dynamically recrystallized omphacite2 and phengite. Deformation resulted in the resetting of the Ar isotopic system within the recrystallized white mica. Flat argon release spectra showing ages of 32 Ma within mylonites record the timing of cooling along the exhumation path, and the emplacement onto the Venediger Nappe. Ar-release patterns and ³⁶Ar/⁴⁰Ar vs.³⁹Ar/⁴⁰Ar isotope correlation analyses indicate no significant ⁴⁰Ar-loss after initial closure, and only a negligible incorporation of excess argon. From the pressure peak onwards, eclogitic conditions prevailed for almost 8–10 Ma.     

Probabilistic modeling of seismically triggered landslides using Monte Carlo simulations

The 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata (Japan) triggered numerous landslides, and the most widespread types of landslides were highly disrupted, relatively shallow slides and soil (debris) flows. This paper presented a method to evaluate slope instability using Newmark displacement on a pixel-by-pixel basis in a given area. The proposed method was able to integrate Newmark displacement modeling and Monte Carlo simulations within geographical information systems. In the modeling, an empirical attenuation relationship was utilized to calculate Arias intensity over this study area, and the variability of geotechnical parameters was taken into account to calculate coseismic landslide displacement. Before deriving the displacement from related inputs, the Monte Carlo simulations ran 1,500 times and generated 1,500 displacement values for each grid cell, and then means and standard deviations of displacement were calculated and probabilistic distributions can be obtained. Finally, given 10 cm as a threshold value of displacement, estimated probabilities of displacement exceeding 10 cm were shown as a map of seismic landslide hazards. The resulting hazard map was classified into four categories from very low to high level.     

Slope inclinometers for landslides

Slope inclinometers/indicators are used to determine the magnitude, rate, direction, depth, and type of landslide movement. This information is usually vitally important for understanding the cause, behavior, and remediation of a landslide. However, many inclinometer measurements fail to achieve these intended aims because of lack of appreciation of the many factors that need to be correctly implemented during installation, monitoring, and data reduction to yield useful data. This paper presents some guidelines for understanding, installing, and interpreting slope inclinometers and presents three case histories that illustrate some of the pitfalls that can develop if these guidelines are not followed.     

顾及DEM误差自相关的坡度计算模型精度分析

基于DEM的坡度计算,其误差来源于DEM误差、DEM结构和坡度计算模型。在顾及DEM误差自相关的前提下,对四种DEM坡度计算模型进行了分析和评价。研究表明,三阶不带权差分能给出较高的坡度计算精度;在局部窗口中,格网点数量越多,坡度计算越准确;等权比不等权的坡度计算模型更准确;DEM误差自相关结构形式对坡度计算无影响。进一步的理论分析和试验分析还表明：DEM误差自相关性的存在,不仅能够改善地形分析的精度,也能改善DEM自身精度。     

Spatial distribution features and environment effect of heavy metal in intertidal surface sediments of Guanhe estuary, Northern Jiangsu Province

In northern Jiangsu coastal zone area, Guanhe River is the biggest river and has the best navigation conditions among rivers which flow into the Yellow Sea. The grain sizes show gradual increase from the high intertidal zone to lower intertidal zone. The heavy metal values have slight changes along both sides of the river mouth, but show an evident change perpendicular to the tidal flat. In the latter case, they show a good correlation with grain size fluctuation, that is, the heavy metal values gradually decline when the grain size increases from the high intertidal zone to the lower intra-tidal zone. Analyses of the heavy metal elements show that on the Guanhe estuary surface sediment, the content of the elements Hg, As and Cu is above background values; Pb and Zn contents are rather close to the background values; and Cd content is less than the background values. The element Hg comes out to be harmful in a medium level to ecological environment, while the elements of Cr, As, Cu, Pb, Zn and Cd fall in a safe range of MPL. On the whole, Guanhe estuary tidal flat is not very harmful to the ecology in terms of the heavy metals. __________ Translated from Marine Geology & Quaternary Geology, 2007, 27(5): 23–32 [译自: 海洋地质与第四纪地质]     

Using Sequential Self-Calibration Method to Identify Conductivity Distribution: Conditioning on Tracer Test data

An iterative inverse method, the sequential self-calibration method, is developed for mapping spatial distribution of a hydraulic conductivity field by conditioning on nonreactive tracer breakthrough curves. A streamline-based, semi-analytical simulator is adopted to simulate solute transport in a heterogeneous aquifer. The simulation is used as the forward modeling step. In this study, the hydraulic conductivity is assumed to be a deterministic or random variable. Within the framework of the streamline-based simulator, the efficient semi-analytical method is used to calculate sensitivity coefficients of the solute concentration with respect to the hydraulic conductivity variation. The calculated sensitivities account for spatial correlations between the solute concentration and parameters. The performance of the inverse method is assessed by two synthetic tracer tests conducted in an aquifer with a distinct spatial pattern of heterogeneity. The study results indicate that the developed iterative inverse method is able to identify and reproduce the large-scale heterogeneity pattern of the aquifer given appropriate observation wells in these synthetic cases.     

The Tau Model for Data Redundancy and Information Combination in Earth Sciences: Theory and Application

Many decision-making processes in the Earth sciences require the combination of multiple data originating from diverse sources. These data are often indirect and uncertain, and their combination would call for a probabilistic approach. These data are also partially redundant with each other or with all others taken jointly. This overlap in information arises due to a variety of reasons—because the data arises from the same geology, because they originate from the same location or the same measurement device, etc. The proposed tau model combines partially redundant data, each taking the form of a prior probability for the event being assessed to occur given that single datum. The parameters of that tau model measure the additional contribution brought by any single datum over that of all previously considered data; they are data sequence-dependent and also data value-dependent. Data redundancy depends on the sequence in which the data is considered and also on the data values themselves. However, for a given sequence, averaging the tau model parameters over all possible data values leads to exact analytical expressions and corresponding approximations and inference avenues. Information on multiple-point connectivity of permeability arrives from core data, well-test data and seismic data which are defined over varying supports with complex redundancy between these information sources. In order to compute these tau weights for determining connectivity, one needs a model of data redundancy, here expressed as a vectorial training image (Ti) constructed using a prior conceptual knowledge of geology and the physics of data measurement. From such a vectorial Ti, the tau weights can be computed exactly. Neglecting data redundancy leads to an over-compounding of individual data information and the possible risk of making extreme decisions.     

Group Time Delay in the Reflection of P-Polarized Electromagnetic Plane Waves at a Stratigraphic Interface

The group time delay (GTD) formulae of quasi-total reflection of inhomogeneous P-polarized electromagnetic waves (P-PEW, whose electric field parallels to the plane of incidence), caused by the Goos–Hänchen effect, is derived by the phase shift of the wave. A numerical example where the frequency equals to 1 GHz is given. The curves of calculating results show that there are three discontinuous points at the critical angle of phase shift vector, the critical angle of attenuation vector and 90^○. When the angle of incidence is equal to one of these three angles, the GTD will become infinite, and the electromagnetic wave will propagate along the interface. The GTD will be very large, when the angle of incidence is close to one of these three angles. The results indicate that there is an important relationship between the two critical angles and the conductivity and permittivity of the two strata, and that the GTD has an important relationship with the angle of incidence. These results can be used to determine the lithology of the strata and to delimit the interfaces of strata more effectively. It is suggested that this research may prove useful in electromagnetic logging analysis and, perhaps, in the design of logging instruments.     

Stability Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Differential Frost Heave

Differential frost heave is often implicated in the formation of patterned ground in regions subject to recurrent freezing and thawing. A linear stability analysis (LSA) indicates that a continuum model of frost heave is linearly unstable under typical natural freezing conditions of silty-clay soils. A two-dimensional non-linear numerical analysis corroborates the frozen time LSA results, and also indicates the importance of non-linear and time-dependent terms that ultimately lead to a preferred mode, which the LSA fails to predict. Instability of the one-dimensional solution occurs at shallow freezing depths and near-zero surface loads when positive perturbations in the ice content at the freezing front lead to a concomitant increase in thermomolecular pressure and upward ice velocity. Differential frost heave can then occur because of the increased heat flux from the perturbed surfaces. A three-dimensional model using random initial surface perturbations indicates that regular surface patterns will evolve with a length scale in the order of 2–4 meters, which corresponds quite closely with naturally-occurring non-sorted patterned ground.