徐州农业生产面临气象灾害风险的评估

根据徐州市历年来各种气象灾害对农业造成影响的资料, 应用信息扩散的模糊数学理论模型, 对徐州地区洪涝、干旱、风雹和霜冻等气象灾害进行风险评估, 并对客观风险评估值进行分析, 得到与历史上实际灾害发生的概率较吻合的结论, 使用这种方法为我们开展气象灾害风险评估提供了客观的数据。     

冬季审核地面气象资料的一些注意事项

对冬季较少出现的天气现象及其引伸的现象的资料处理情况进行概括,有助于台站处理审核原始资料。     

利用地震叠前数据预测火山岩裂缝的方法和效果分析——以松辽盆地北部徐家围子断陷营城组火山岩为例

裂缝问题是火山岩复杂岩性油气藏勘探开发中必须考虑的重要因素之一.火山岩储层裂缝预测的准确性直接影响着油气的产能、钻井工艺和增产改造措施等.本文主要根据等效HTI介质(扩容各向异性介质)的特性,立足地下介质各向异性理论,利用三维地震叠前P波在HTI介质中的属性分布特征来检测裂缝的发育情况.利用三维地震叠前P波裂缝检测技术在松辽盆地北部徐家围子断陷深层营城组火山岩中尝试开展了储层裂缝发育预测研究.通过研究建立了火山岩裂缝地震叠前预测方法,并对营城组火山岩裂缝发育情况进行预测,结果表明裂缝主要分布在工区中部构造高部位,发育方向以北北西向为主.最后利用测井资料和钻井产能资料等进行效果分析,证实该技术对于认识火山岩储层裂缝发育具有实际应用价值,说明应用地震资料开展储层裂缝预测具有横向分辨率高、实现井间分布描述和宏观空间分布规律清楚等特点.     

遗传算法求解最大预报误差的可行性研究

利用条件非线性最优扰动（conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation,CNOP）可以实现最大预报误差的上界估计。CNOP通常由基于梯度信息的约束优化算法进行求解,且其中的梯度信息由伴随模式提供。然而当非线性模式中含不连续＂开关＂时,传统伴随方法不能为优化过程提供正确的梯度方向,从而导致优化失败。为此,采用自适应变异和混合交叉的遗传算法,联赛选择机制和小生境技术的约束处理方法来求解最大预报误差上界。为检验新方法的有效性,以修改的Lorenz模型作为预报模式,对3个初始态分别用新方法和传统伴随方法进行比较,数值试验结果显示新方法求解出的最大预报误差的上界更加精确。     

高空站后备电源维护方法

对目前高空站所使用的后备电源的维护方面,参考有关资料,结合台站的工作经验,总结出备份电源的维护与保障方法,为各台站在日常使用备份电源时提供一定参考。     

气候变化适应行动实施框架——宁夏农业案例实践

宁夏是我国生态脆弱区和贫困区之一,以宁夏为例开展农业适应行动实践具有一定的代表性和示范作用。根据气候变化适应行动实施框架,研究结果表明：宁夏未来气候干旱风险将增加,水资源短缺矛盾加剧,极端气候事件频率和强度加大。未来宁夏北部灌区农业应以发展节水灌溉和高效种植为主,中部以设施农业和牧业为主,南部以发展特色农业为主。气象部门和水利部门对适应技术的适应效果持乐观态度,农牧业部门和林业部门则态度谨慎。适应措施能否实施的首要条件是措施符合国家和地方的政策方针,其次是成本效益;在实施条件中,要求相对比较弱化的是公众对气候风险的认知程度以及措施的灵活调整性。在适应措施选择上,气象服务和种植结构调整成为首选的适应技术,而覆盖技术、节水技术由于更倾向于传统的技术范畴,虽然效果较好,但对其适应优先性选择存在影响。     

一次秋季冷锋降水过程气溶胶与云粒子分布的飞机观测

利用机载PMS（Particle Measuring Systems）测量系统,对2008年10月4—5日石家庄地区一次冷锋降水云系的3次气溶胶和云粒子探测资料进行了分析。结果表明,冷锋过境降水前后,气溶胶粒子分布差异较大。降水发生前,气溶胶粒子平均数浓度约为103cm-3,平均直径为0.95μm;气溶胶主要集中于3000m高度以下的对流层低层,云内气溶胶数浓度明显减少。降水发生后,气溶胶粒子平均数浓度约为102cm-3,比降水前约小1个量级,平均直径为1.28μm;气溶胶主要集中于1200m以下的近地面层,其数浓度随高度增加而降低。气溶胶粒子浓度在低层云区内水平变化较小,而在无云区和云下近地层水平起伏较大。云粒子平均浓度比气溶胶小1～2个量级。气溶胶粒子平均谱主要呈双峰型,而云粒子谱主要为单峰型。     

福建锦城187Ma花岗岩的发现——对华南沿海早侏罗世构造演化的制约

本文对福建沿海福清地区的锦城花岗岩和牛头尾花岗闪长岩进行了岩石地球化学、锆石U-Pb-Hf同位素分析.LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年结果显示锦城花岗岩的年龄为187±1Ma,为福建沿海首次发现的早侏罗世岩浆活动;牛头尾花岗岩形成时代为130±1Ma,代表燕山晚期(白垩纪)的一期岩浆活动.锦城花岗岩具有高5iO2、偏碱、高Fe2OT3等特征,为高钾钙碱性系列,岩石相对富集轻稀土,亏损Nb、Ta、Ti等高场强元素,富集Ba、Sr等大离子亲石元素,具高Rb/Sr( 1.31 ～ 1.93)比值及低Rb/Ba(0.26 ～0.29)、Eu/Eu*(0.30 ～0.56)、La/Yb(5.69 ～ 18.39),Sr/Y(2.24 ～2.29)比值,为典型的Ⅰ型花岗岩,且具有火山孤花岗岩的地球化学特征,很可能形成于与俯冲相关的构造背景.牛头尾花岗岩相比锦城花岗岩低SiO2,贫钾,而富镁、钙,属于花岗闪长岩.其更亏损Nb、Ta及富集Ba、Sr,具较低Rb/Sr(0.27)、Rb/Ba(0.09)比值和较高的Eu/Eu*(0.98)、La/Yb( 16.87),Sr/Y( 19.08)比值,同样为具有弧特征的钙碱性Ⅰ型花岗岩,也形成于与大洋俯冲有关的构造背景.锦城花岗岩和年头尾花岗闪长岩具有相似的锆石Hf同位素组成,εHf(t)分别为2.18～4.73和1.25 ～4.15,tDMC均为～ 1.0Ga,表明二者起源于相同的新元古代新生地壳.结合已有的资料,本次研究发现锦城花岗岩与南岭地区同时代岩浆岩( 194 ～ 172Ma)在成因上有密切的联系,暗示古太平洋板决的俯冲很可能自早侏罗世开始.这样,华南古特提斯构造域向古太平洋构造域的转换很可能发生在早侏罗世之前,大致在205 ～ 190Ma期间.     

Extreme Cr-rich nano-oxides in the CI chondrite Orgueil - Implication for a late supernova injection into the solar system

Systematic variations in ⁵⁴Cr/⁵²Cr ratios between meteorite classes ( [Trinquier et al., 2007] and [Qin et al., 2010a]) point to large scale spatial and/or temporal isotopic heterogeneity in the solar protoplanetary disk. Two explanations for these variations have been proposed, with important implications for the formation of the Solar System: heterogeneous seeding of the disk with dust from a supernova, or energetic-particle irradiation of dust in the disk. The key to differentiating between them is identification of the carrier(s) of the ⁵⁴Cr anomalies. Here we report the results of our recent NanoSIMS imaging search for the ⁵⁴Cr-rich carrier in the acid-resistant residue of the CI chondrite Orgueil. A total of 10 regions with extreme ⁵⁴Cr-excesses (δ⁵⁴Cr values up to 1500‰) were found. Comparison between SEM, Auger and NanoSIMS analyses showed that these ⁵⁴Cr-rich regions are associated with one or more sub-micron (typically less than 200 nm) Cr oxide grains, most likely spinels. Because the size of the NanoSIMS primary O⁻ ion beam is larger than the typical grain size on the sample mount, the measured anomalies are lower limits, and we estimate that the actual ⁵⁴Cr enrichments in three grains are at least 11 times Solar and in one of these may be as high as 50 times Solar. Such compositions strongly favor a Type II supernova origin. The variability in bulk ⁵⁴Cr/⁵²Cr between meteorite classes argues for a heterogeneous distribution of the ⁵⁴Cr carrier in the solar protoplanetary disk following a late supernova injection event. Such a scenario is also supported by the O-isotopic distribution and variable abundances in different planetary materials of other presolar oxide and silicate grains from supernovae.     

Variation in n-alkane δD values from terrestrial plants at high latitude: Implications for paleoclimate reconstruction

The molecular hydrogen isotope composition (δD) of leaf waxes from terrestrial plants is increasingly used to infer hydrological characteristics of ancient high latitude climates. Analysis of the hydrogen isotope composition of n-alkanes (δD_n-alkane) from a global dataset of individual plants growing at low and middle latitudes indicates that plant ecological life form is an important factor in determining the hydrogen isotope fractionation. However, environmental and biological controls of high latitudinal leaf wax δD values are poorly understood because of a lack of δD records from modern flora in these regions. We previously noticed smaller apparent hydrogen isotope fractionations between n-alkanes and environmental water (ε_alk-water) in deciduous trees growing at high latitudes (>59°N; Liu, W.-G., Yang, H., 2008. Multiple controls for the variability of hydrogen isotopic compositions in higher plant n-alkanes from modern ecosystems. Global Change Biology 14, 2166-2177.) To further examine these issues, we measured δD_n-alkane from a variety of plants that inhabit high latitude environments and added critically needed leaf wax δD data from grass and herbs to the existing global δD_n-alkane database. Inclusion of these new data with the existing global dataset (n = 408) confirms plant ecological life form as an important control for leaf wax δD variation for terrestrial plants living at high latitudes. Our results suggest that, while precipitation δD is captured in these high latitude plants, physiological characters such as leaf area, venation pattern and hydraulic system, that enhance transpiration rate during summer growth, may impart δD_n-alkane differences among plants with different ecological life forms.