Could CMIP6 climate models reproduce the early-2000s global warming slowdown?

The unexpected global warming slowdown during 1998–2013 challenges the existing scientific understanding of global temperature change mechanisms, and thus the simulation and prediction ability of state-of-the-art climate models since most models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) cannot simulate it. Here, we examine whether the new-generation climate models in CMIP6 can reproduce the recent global warming slowdown, and further evaluate their capacities for simulating key-scale natural variabilities which are the most likely causes of the slowdown. The results show that although the CMIP6 models present some encouraging improvements when compared with CMIP5, most of them still fail to reproduce the warming slowdown. They considerably overestimate the warming rate observed in 1998–2013,exhibiting an obvious warming acceleration rather than the observed deceleration. This is probably associated with their deficiencies in simulating the distinct temperature change signals from the human-induced long-term warming trend and/or the three crucial natural variabilities at interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal scales. In contrast, the 4 models that can successfully reproduce the slowdown show relatively high skills in simulating the long-term warming trend and the three keyscale natural variabilities. Our work may provide important insight for the simulation and prediction of near-term climate changes.     

基于SPI指数的当前及未来中国东北地区干旱时空演变特征分析

基于降水量历史观测数据和气候模式预估数据,采用标准化降水量指数(Standandized Precipitation Index,SPI)识别干旱事件,从干旱发生的频率和强度特征分析其危险性,研究东北地区当前及未来不同气候变化情景下干旱时空变化特征.结果显示:(1)bcc-csm1-1 对东北地区降水的模拟效果较好;(...     

不同测算方法下行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响分析

行程时间不确定性导致了可达性随时间的变化,相关研究表明忽略行程时间不确定性会高估可达性水平。既有可达性研究往往用行程时间可靠性表示行程时间不确定性,但未考虑不同可达性模型结果的差异以及行程时间可靠性价值。本文结合各OD之间的行程时间分布特征,构建方差型的行程时间可靠性来描述行程时间不确定性,并进一步将行程时间可靠性纳入到广义出行时间成本中,建立了时间距离模型、潜力模型、累计机会模型和高斯模型4种基于位置的可达性测算方法,以比较在不同测算方法下,行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响。深圳的案例研究表明：(1)忽略行程时间不确定性会使全区域的可达性至少被高估5.04%,最大被高估95.04%。潜力模型、时间距离模型、累计机会模型和高斯模型的高估幅度由低到高;(2)行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响存在阈值效应,阈值越高,可达性受影响的程度越小;(3)从空间分布来看,行程时间不确定性对可达性水平高和低的区域都有一定影响。若不考虑行程时间不确定性,可达性高的区域高估值大,而在可达性低的区域,可达性高估的百分比较大,高估百分比中位数的差异程度最大可达77.1%;(4)行程时间不确定性对潜力模型可达性分类的...     

The impacts of base level and lithology on fluvial geomorphic evolution at the tectonically active Laohu and Hasi Mountains,northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Previous researches had emphasized tectonic impacts on the fluvial system at the tectonically active areas, while the effects of lithology and local base level change have received relatively rare attention. Here we investigated fluvial landforms at different spatial scales, focusing on knickpoints and channel network reorganization from an area affected by the Haiyuan Fault in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The geomorphic indices, i.e., drainage pattern and χ anomalies, were calculated and investigated. The results show that two regional radial drainages formed around the Laohu and Hasi Mountains. Within the interior of the radial drainage, tributaries from the southeast side of the Laohu Mountain experienced near 180° direction change.We interpret this as the gradual drainage capture originating from the height difference(～190 m) of the local base level between the two catchments. Some tributaries from the Hasi Mountain show alternating gorges and broad valleys controlled by lithology.Besides, tectonic uplift and the lowering of base level(from the incision of the Yellow River) triggered an autogenic positivefeedback transition from parallel to dendritic drainage patterns. These observations suggest that base level change and lithology play a crucial role in landscape evolution, even in a tectonically active region.     

数字测井绘图系统在地质报告中的应用

目前,经"CLGIS煤田测井综合解释程序"处理的测井数据为DOS系统下dat文件格式,由此产生的测井成果图无法用于提交规范的煤田地质报告,为此需将其转换为Windows操作系统下通用图形文件格式,如dwg、dxf等图形文件.通过分析dat测井数据的存贮格式,利用VB语言,结合Activex编程技术、Access数据库以及Autocad等绘图软件功能,使数字测井成果数据得以利用,实现"测井曲线综合柱状图"、"煤层测井曲线定厚图"、"测井曲线对比图"等图件的自动绘制.     

河口湾相模式研究

河口湾由一套变化亚环境组成,对其相变模式研究表明,河口湾沉积特征及岩相分布受波浪 和河流三种水动力所控制、塔里木盆地塔中４井区上泥舅统工河塘组下部发育潮控口湾沉积,由潮控河道复合体、潮坪和潮汐砂坝组成,代表海进体系域沉积、发育下切谷充填型储层。     

Epithermal deposits in North Xinjiang, NW China

The North Xinjiang region (NW China) is an important part of the Central Asia Orogenic Belt, situated at the junction of Siberia, Tarim and Kazakhstan plates. It is an area characterized by multiple stages of Phanerozoic continental growth, during which several porphyry and epithermal systems were formed. The relationship of these mineral systems to the geodynamic evolution of the region has not yet been well understood. In this paper, we list the main geological characteristics of 21 significant epithermal precious and base metal deposits in North Xinjiang, and classify them into high-sulfidation and low-sulfidation styles, with the latter being predominant. We have selected seven epithermal deposits representing different styles formed under different tectonic regimes and discuss their geology and geochemistry in some detail. The deposit-scale geology and geochemistry of epithermal systems in North Xinjiang are essentially similar to those in other parts of the world. All epithermal deposits in North Xinjiang are hosted in volcanic rocks with ages ranging from Devonian to Triassic, with the Early Carboniferous volcanic sequences being the most important, followed by the Permian and Triassic. The Devonian–Early Carboniferous host rocks belong to the calc-alkaline series that developed in pre-collisional arc-back-arc basin systems; whereas the Permian–Triassic host volcanic rocks of shoshonite series formed in post-subduction regimes. Available isotopic ages of these epithermal systems cluster in two periods: Early Carboniferous (>320?Ma) and Late Carboniferous–Triassic (320–220?Ma), reflecting two metallogenic episodes that occurred during subduction-related accretion and post-subduction collision regimes, respectively. Accordingly, three groups of epithermal deposits in North Xinjiang can be recognized as (1) pre-collisional deposits without or with negligible collisional-related modification, (2) deposits formed in collision regime and (3) ore systems strongly overprinted by fluid flow in post-subduction collision regime.     

中国防洪若干重大问题的思考

为配合中国水利部组织编制全国主要江河防洪规划工作,对与编制防洪规划有关的若干重大问题进行了研究。提出用20世纪发生过的大洪水淹没范围作为界定防洪区的基础;风险管理最重要的是规避风险和应对风险,而规避风险的核心是约束人类不合理的经济社会活动,降低洪水灾害造成的风险;当防洪区受到两种洪水风险威胁时,应当采用二维概率分布核查防洪区的标准;合理提高城市防洪标准,是城市防洪的首要任务;要协调城市防洪与城市建设的关系,充分发挥城市拦蓄雨洪的作用(如保留必要的水面率、雨水利用等),蓄排兼顾,而不宜过分强调城市排水;建议根据淹没水深、淹没历时和洪水频率组成的洪水风险度因子划分蓄滞洪区风险区,并结合蓄滞洪区自然地理条件比选安全建设模式。     

分区上异点校正法在干旱地区1:5万地球化学异常圈定中的应用:以我国西北某地区为例

我国西北地区具有独特的干旱荒漠戈壁残山景观,风成砂、黄土硬壳以及下伏的膏岩层与岩屑层共同构成了浅层地表土壤的基本结构.以西北某干旱地区为例,针对剥蚀程度高且元素富集不明显的干旱荒漠区,提出了分区上异点校正法.该方法是一种建立在非常规统计学基础上的数据处理方法,直接通过某种规则将各个分区的上异点调整到统一水平上,使得每个...     

综合大洋钻探计划311航次沉积物中自生碳酸盐岩碳、氧稳定同位素特征

为了探索水合物背景下沉积物中自生矿物响应,对采自综合大洋钻探计划（IODP）311航次沉积物中自生碳酸盐岩颗粒进行了矿物组成、形貌特征和碳、氧稳定同位素特征等研究。X光粉晶衍射（XRD）和扫描电镜（SEM）结果显示碳酸盐岩颗粒的主要矿物成分是铁白云石和方解石,呈多孔状结核和不规则状集合体产出。碳酸盐岩颗粒的碳稳定同位素δ¹³C_PDB低至-41.50‰,证实其碳源源自甲烷,其成因与甲烷厌氧氧化过程有关,印证了研究区存在海底甲烷渗漏现象,是甲烷水合物赋存区重要的识别标志之一。碳酸盐岩颗粒的氧稳定同位素δ¹⁸O_PDB总体上随着沉积物深度增加而减小,可能指示沉积物的背景温度由下而上（从早到晚）逐渐降低。研究结果提供了现代海洋天然气水合物背景下沉积物中自生碳酸盐岩的碳、氧稳定同位素记录,对于寻找我国海域天然气水合物资源,探索地史时期古海洋沉积物中类似的甲烷事件记录具有重要的理论和实践指导意义。