Conditional risk based on multivariate hazard scenarios

We present a novel methodology to compute conditional risk measures when the conditioning event depends on a number of random variables. Specifically, given a random vector \((\mathbf {X},Y)\), we consider risk measures that express the risk of Y given that \(\mathbf {X}\) assumes values in an extreme multidimensional region. In particular, the considered risky regions are related to the AND, OR, Kendall and Survival Kendall hazard scenarios that are commonly used in environmental literature. Several closed formulas are considered (especially in the AND and OR scenarios). An application to spatial risk analysis involving real data is discussed.     

An erosional origin for drumlins of NW Poland

Drumlins are landforms essential to understanding of ice sheet movement over soft beds, sediment transport along the ice/bed interface, and the formation of a wide range of glacial deposits. Although investigated more than any other glacial landform, the origin of drumlins remains contentious. Using high-resolution LiDAR imagery and field data, we investigate the geomorphology and internal composition of one of the biggest drumlin fields in the North European Lowland. The Stargard drumlin field consists of over 1300 drumlins and related streamlined subglacial bedforms in a terminal part of a major Weichselian palaeo-ice stream of the southern Scandinavian Ice Sheet. The drumlins are typically 600-800 m long, 200-250 m wide, 3-6 m high and have axial elongation ratios ~2 but in some cases exceeding 15. Several subzones inferred from drumlin morphometry exist reflecting different ice flow dynamics. The most elongated drumlins occur in areas where ice moved down-slope and where thick fine-grained deposits of low hydraulic conductivity occur in the substratum. The largest portion of land occupied by drumlins and the greatest frequency density of drumlins occur where the ice moved up-slope. Stargard drumlins are composed of a wide variety of glacial deposits including various types of tills and meltwater sediments, which range from undisturbed to heavily deformed. There is no correlation between the deposits in the drumlins and the drumlin forms indicating that the deposits pre-date the drumlinizing process. It is suggested that the drumlin field was generated by a combination of direct glacial erosion and subglacial meltwater erosion by removing antecedent material from the inter-drumlin areas and streamlining the resultant bumps. Our data support the search for a unifying theory of drumlin formation and suggest erosion as the most plausible single mechanism generating drumlin landscapes. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrodynamic parameters in a flood impacted boulder block ramp: Krzczonówka mountain stream,Polish Carpathians

Boulder block ramps are river engineering structures used to stabilise river beds. Block ramps provide a semi-natural and aesthetically pleasing solution to certain river engineering problems in mountain streams. When constructing block ramps,one can use the dissipative behaviour of large macroroughness elements randomly placed on the river bed to enhance fish migration in an upstream direction thus, in this sense, meeting the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive. Block ramps are often designed and constructed to replace damaged drop hydraulic structures in the channels of mountain streams. This paper investigates the resilience of a particular block ramp placed in the Krzczonówka stream(Polish Carpathians) in terms of the engineering design function and its durability against damaging. A hydrodynamic analysis of a block ramp is presented before and after a flood event that changed the configuration of the blocks. The seminatural unstructured hydraulic structure was built on the Krzczonowka stream to protect gas pipes which are located beneath it. As a result of several floods, the boulder block chute described in this paper was damaged, and some boulders were dislodged and transported downstream. Our post-flood investigations of bathymetry and velocity revealed that even damaged boulder blocks, removed from the chute and displaced downstream of the structure, still provide significant energy dissipation of the flowing water. The novel of our paper is for the first time showing very detailed analysis of unstructured block ramp hydrodynamics parameters done in the field.Also the novel finding of our investigations shows that before and after the flood event the unstructured block ramp structure, is still fish friendly in terms of hydrodynamics.     

The 1989 May outburst of the soft X-ray transient GS 2023+338 (V404 Cyg)

We reanalyse archival Ginga data of the soft X-ray transient source GS 2023+338 covering the beginning of its 1989 May outburst. The source showed a number of rather unusual features: very high and apparently saturated luminosity, dramatic flux and spectral variability (often on ∼1 s time-scale), and generally very hard spectrum, with no obvious soft thermal component characteristic for soft/high state.
We describe the spectrum obtained at the maximum of flux and we demonstrate that it is very different from spectra of other soft X-ray transients at similar luminosity. We confirm previous suggestions that the dramatic variability was the result of heavy and strongly variable photoelectric absorption. We also demonstrate that for a short time the spectrum of the source did look like a typical soft/high state spectrum but that this coincided with very heavy absorption.     

Lidar and the mobile Scene Modeler (mSM) as scientific tools for planetary exploration

With the continued success of the Mars Exploration Rovers and the return of humans to the Moon within the next decade, a considerable amount of research is being done on the technologies required to provide surface mobility and the tools required to provide scientific capability. Here, we explore the utility of lidar and the mobile Scene Modeler (mSM) - which is based on a stereo camera system - as scientific tools. Both of these technologies have been, or are being considered for, technological applications such as autonomous satellite rendezvous and rover navigation. We carried out a series of field tests at the 23 km diameter, 39 Ma, Haughton impact structure located on Devon Island in the Canadian Arctic. Several sites of geological interest were investigated, including polygonal terrain, gullies and channels, slump/collapse features, impact melt breccia hills, and a site of impact-associated hydrothermal mineralization. These field tests show that lidar and mSM provide a superior visual record of the terrain, from the regional (km) to outcrop (m to cm) scale and in 3-D, as compared to standard digital photography. Thus, a key strength of these technologies is in situ reconnaissance and documentation. Lidar scans also provide a wealth of geometric and structural information about a site, accomplishing the equivalent of weeks to months of manual surveying and with much greater accuracy than traditional tools, making this extremely useful for planetary exploration missions. An unexpected result of these field tests is the potential for lidar and mSM to provide qualitative, and potentially quantitative, composition information about a site. Given the high probability of lidar and mSM being used on future lunar missions, we suggest that it would be beneficial to further investigate the potential for these technologies to be used as science tools.     

Study of litter influence on magnetic susceptibility measurements of urban forest topsoils using the MS2D sensor

Field magnetometry is fast and convenient method used to detect areas contaminated by technogenic magnetic particles and potentially polluted with heavy metals. Frequently, measurements of soil magnetic susceptibility (κ) are carried out with MS2D Bartington sensor, which penetration range equals 10 cm, although 90% of the total signal is detected from a depth of up to 6 cm. Thick uppermost organic soil layers may significantly influence on the measured κ because the penetration range may be not large enough to cover the layers where the most of anthropogenic contaminants are cumulated. The aim of the study was to investigate on how the removal of the litter improves the MS2D measurements of soil pollution. Accordingly, the correlations between κ values measured on the successively removed overlying soil sub-horizons were investigated. Measurements were performed at 15 sites located in different forest in the Upper Silesian Industrial Area, Poland. The results showed that the litter removal enabled the MS2D to measure the κ more related to the anthropogenic pollution, and did not affect the measuring variance.     

2-Gyr Simulation of the Oort-cloud Formation II. A Close View of the Inner Oort cloud after the First Two Giga-years

We simulate the formation of the Oort cloud (OC) till the age of 2 Gyr starting from an initial disc of planetesimals made by 10 038 test particles. The results on the outer part of the distant comet reservoir are reported by Neslu?an et al. (this issue). Here we deal with the evolution of the population and structure at 2 Gyr of the complementary inner part of the Oort cloud. The dynamical evolution of the massless test particles was followed via the numerical integration of their orbits. We considered the perturbations produced by four giant planets assuming they have their current orbits and masses, as well as the perturbations caused by the Galactic tide and passing stars. The efficiency of the formation of inner OC is found to be very low: only about 1.1% of all considered particles ended in this part of the OC. At 2 Gyr, the dynamics of the inner cloud is mainly governed by the dominant z-term of the Galactic tide. The number density of the bodies is proportional to the heliocentric distance, r, as r ^?3.53. The directional distribution of orbits is still strongly inhomogeneous. There are large empty regions in the space angles around the Galactic Equator points with the galactic longitude 90 and 270° (non-rotating frame), or there are only few bodies having the ecliptical latitude higher than +60° or lower than 60°. A strong concentration of objects at the Ecliptic is apparent up to ≈1,000 AU, with a possible—but still not proved—extension to ≈1,500 AU. Beyond r ≈ 6,000 AU, bodies directly above and below the Sun, with respect to the Ecliptic, are absent.     

A New Subfamily of Aphids (Hemiptera,Aphidomorpha) from the Early Cretaceous Lebanese Amber with a Description of the Oldest Apterous Morphs

<正>Aphids are marked by their high polymorphism,but species reported from the Early Cretaceous are known only from alate morphs.The discovery of an apterous adult morph in Lebanese amber and a larva of the same species are very important for the understanding of both the morphological and biological evolution of this insect group at the very early stage of development.Gondvanoaphis estephani new subfamily,new genus and species of the recent aphids family Thelaxidae is described.The characters of the new genus in respect to other genera placed in Thelaxidae are reviewed.The palaeoecological and palaeogeographical data concerning Gondvanoaphis new genus are also discussed.     

Searching for the Parent of the Tunguska Cosmic Body

We present the results of an extensive study of the Tunguska Cosmic Body (TCB) origin on dynamical grounds. To identify the TCB parent, or a plausible candidate, we applied the well-known concept of dynamical similarity whereby we have compared the geocentric and heliocentric dynamical parameters of a selected set of the Near Earth Objects (NEOs) and TCB particles. First, we made use the idea of Kresak by comparing geocentric coordinates of the TCB radiant with those of the NEOs. Second, we studied the long-term dynamical evolution of all NEOs and TCB particles searching for similarities between their heliocentric orbits. As a general result, we observed many more similar cases and a different pattern of the high orbital similarity among the TCB particles and the asteroid orbits than we did for comets.     

Geology,stratigraphy and palaeoenvironmental evolution of the Stephanorhinus kirchbergensis-bearing Quaternary palaeolake(s) of Gorzów Wielkopolski (NW Poland,Central Europe)

The sedimentary succession exposed in the Gorzów Wielkopolski area includes Eemian Interglacial (MIS 5e) or Early Weichselian (MIS 5d–e) deposits. The sedimentary sequence has been the object of intense interdisciplinary study, which has resulted in the identification of at least two palaeolake horizons. Both yielded fossil remains of large mammals, alongside pollen and plant macrofossils. All these proxies have been used to reconstruct the environmental conditions prevailing at the time of deposition, as well as to define the geological context and the biochronological position of the fauna. Optically stimulated luminescence dating of the glaciofluvial layers of the GS3 succession to 123.6 ± 10.1 (below the lower palaeolake) and 72.0 ± 5.2 ka (above the upper palaeolake) indicate that the site formed during the Middle–Late Pleistocene (MIS 6 – MIS 5). Radiocarbon-dating of the lacustrine organic matter revealed a tight cluster of Middle Pleniglacial Period (MIS 3) ages in the range of ~41–32 ka cal bp (Hengelo – Denekamp Interstadials). Holocene organic layers have also been found, with ¹⁴C ages within a range of 4330–4280 cal bp (Neolithic). Pollen and plant macrofossil records, together with sedimentological and geochemical data, confirm the dating to the Eemian Interglacial.