Incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of biological reference points for a spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery

The status of a fishery is often defined as the probability of fishing mortality rate exceeding a perilous level for long‐term sustainability. Lobster stock assessments are often subject to large uncertainty in input data and high levels of natural variability in lobster life history processes, which calls for incorporating uncertainty associated with both indicator and management reference points in an evaluation of biological risk of overfishing. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we evaluated the impacts of uncertainty in modelling on the determination of the status of the Taitung spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery (Taiwan), which has not been quantitatively determined despite its commercial importance. The commonly used biological reference points derived from the per recruit model (F _0.1 the fishing mortality rate where the slope of the curve of yield‐per‐recruit model is 10% of the maximum slope and F _4Q%, the fishing mortality rate that reduces the expected egg production for a cohort of female lobsters to 40% of that produced in the absence of a fishery of the egg‐per‐recruit model) were influenced by uncertainties associated with lobster life history and fishery parameters. A large uncertainty in the current fishing mortality rate (F _cnr) and estimates of biological reference points (F _BRPs) increased the uncertainty in determining the risk of overexploitation throughout the confidence levels of the stochastic decision‐making framework. This simulation study suggests that the target reference point of F _40% is less sensitive to the input parameters’ uncertainty than F _0.1 We suggest a further evaluation of other F‐based references points and development of biomass‐based reference points before final selection and implementation for the management of the Taitung lobster fishery.     

由非季风区向季风区过渡过程中大气边界层结构的变化分析

利用中国西北中部具有代表性的非季风区、夏季风影响过渡区和季风区的7个高空站的2013年夏季晴天07时、13时、19时（北京时）的大气边界层资料,通过分析大气边界层位温、比湿、风速的垂直结构,发现大气边界层结构及厚度在不同区域的分布特征:稳定边界层厚度、残余层顶高度和对流边界层厚度从非季风区、夏季风影响过渡区至季风区出现阶梯性大幅降低,从非季风区至夏季风影响过渡区,以及从夏季风影响过渡区至季风区,对流边界层厚度降幅依次为25.6%和81.8%,稳定边界层厚度降幅依次为58.3%和41.8%;在稳定边界层条件下,可观察到低空急流的存在,非季风区低空急流出现高度明显高于夏季风影响过渡区和季风区,且非季风区的低空急流风速也明显大于夏季风影响过渡区和季风区。通过分析与大气边界层发展最为密切的陆面热力因素在不同气候区的分布,净辐射值、日地-气温差最大值以及感热通量值在非季风区大于夏季风影响过渡区和季风区,从陆面热力过程为非季风区大气边界层厚度大于夏季风影响过渡区和季风区提供了理论依据。     

Factors driving riverbed scouring and sedimentation in the Bayangaole to Toudaoguai reaches of the Upper Yellow River

The Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River face problems of severe sedimentation caused by a variety of complex factors. The sedimentation process in those reaches has been characterized using the sediment balance method, and the key factors affecting the process have been analyzed using the correlation analysis method. The results show that during the period 1952–2012 the Bayangaole (Bayan Gol) to Toudaoguai reaches in Inner Mongolia have undergone successive processes of accumulative sedimentation, then relative balance, and then accumulative sedimentation once again. The total annual sedimentation is 12.0341×10⁸ m³, of which accumulations from July to October account for 95.1% and the reaches from Sanhuhekou to Toudaoguai account for 98.5%. The main factor affecting scouring and sedimentation of the Bayangaole to Sanhuhekou reaches is the combined water and sediment condition. The critical conditions for equilibrium are an incoming sediment coefficient < 0.007 kg·s·m^–6 and a flow discharge > 700 m³·s^–1. The main factor affecting scouring and sedimentation of the Sanhuhekou to Toudaoguai reaches is the incoming sediment from the tributaries on the south bank and the combined water and sediment condition of the main stream. The critical conditions of the main stream for maintaining equilibrium status are a flow discharge of the main stream exceeding 800 m³·s^–1 and a comprehensive incoming sediment coefficient < 0.005 kg·s·m^–6. The incoming sediment from the tributaries has little impact on the main stream when the annual sediment load is less than 0.1×10⁸ t. The incoming sediment coefficient of the main stream and the incoming sediment from the tributaries both play vital roles in the riverbed evolution of the Inner Mongolia reaches, but the latter contributes the most.     

阿拉善活动块体的划分及归宿

通过对阿拉善地区地震活动图象呈现显著的条带状、新构造变形表现为块体的隆升和向北的掀斜、周缘的内部性质各异的断裂活动状况、结晶基底与基底内推覆和滑脱构造发育等构造特征的分析，以及与相邻块体的比较，论证了阿拉善活动块体的存在，对其边界作了厘定，并将其归属到华北亚板块，强调了阿拉善块体为一活动构造，其内部存在一个ＮＥ向的阿拉善地震带，归属于华北地震区。该地区的地震危险性不可低估。     

老挝Nam Ngum 5水电站重力拱坝裂缝处理实践

针对老挝Nam Ngum 5水电站重力拱坝裂缝进行的灌浆处理,采用化学灌浆和水泥灌浆相结合,取得了良好的治理效果。详细介绍了裂缝深度的检测方法和裂缝止裂措施,以及灌浆施工工艺。     

云南高原城市发展对降雨的影响——以楚雄市为例

分析了楚雄市1965-2010年的降雨特点,采用同时期城区(楚雄站)与郊区(南华站、双柏站)雨量横向对比和城市化发展不同时期同一站雨量纵向对比的方法,研究了城市化对年降雨量、季节雨量和不同类型降雨发生次数等的影响.通过研究发现:城市化发展对城市年雨量、汛期雨量有不同程度的增加作用;受城市化发展的影响,降雨年内分配集中雨季的趋势更加明显;城市化发展使不同类型降雨发生次数有增加或减少,对大雨和暴雨有增加作用,小雨和中雨有所减少.城市化发展使城市大雨和暴雨增多,所以要加强城市洪涝、滑坡和泥石流灾害的防治工作.     

辽河断陷盆地地层划分对比标志研究

辽河断陷地质构造十分复杂, 造成了古近系分割性强、厚度和岩性纵横向变化大等特点. 寻找识别标志层, 进行精细地层划分对比一直是本区地层研究的难点, 制约了油气勘探开发部署. 从盆地构造沉积演化分析入手, 通过多重地层划分对比方法, 对西部凹陷近千口探井进行系统研究, 识别了古近系7个区域标志层, 描述了古近系沙河街组共14种不同类型底界的接触关系和岩电特征, 并以各种类型底界的代表井为基准, 划分出同一地层单元内不同类型底界的分布区, 使陆相断陷盆地地层划分对比更加简单、具体、易操作, 为油气精细勘探提供基础支撑.     

不连续面在双重介质热-水-力三维耦合分析中的有限元数值实现

在建立双重介质热-水-力耦合微分控制方程的基础上,提出了裂隙岩体热-水-力耦合的三维力学模型,对不同介质分别建立以节点位移、水压力和温度为求解量的三维有限元格式,开发了双重介质热-水-力耦合分析的的三维有限元计算程序,在有限元数值分析中不连续面应力计算采用等厚度空间8节点节理单元进行离散,而不连续面渗流和热能计算时采用平面4节点等参单元进行离散,这样保证了不同介质之间的水量、热量交换和两类模型接触处节点水头、温度和位移相等。通过高温岩体地热开发算例,揭示了在热-水-力耦合作用下不连续面处于低应力区,其张开度随运行时间的延长呈非线性增加,非稳定渗流阶段不连续面显著地控制着渗流场的整体分布,它的水头远高于拟连续岩体介质的水头,而进入稳定渗流阶段不连续面的控渗作用不明显,由于高温岩体地热开发系统中存在大规模的热量补给,不连续面对岩体温度场分布的影响并不显著。     

梵净山区域暴雨过程中小时降水雷达回波特征分析

利用梵净山周边区域自动站逐小时降水资料和铜仁雷达观测资料,对2017—2018年铜仁市梵净山周边区域暴雨过程中逐小时分级降水的雷达类型和回波特征进行分析。结果表明：(1)梵净山区域暴雨过程中小雨、中雨、大雨年均总站次的日变化均呈双峰型分布,而暴雨年均总站次呈单锋型,并且具有明显的夜雨特征。(2)造成梵净山区域暴雨天气的雷达回波类型可分为本地发展型、移入型和合并加强型3种。(3)小时雨强与回波强度呈正相关,而与移动速度呈反相关。(4)径向速度图上中雨量级降水有弱辐合特征,大雨量级降水出现弱的逆风区结构,暴雨量级降水有明显的辐合辐散和速度对特征,且存在逆风区结构,逆风区位置对应强回波中心。(5)垂直累计液态水含量大值区及回波顶高度与反射率因子大值区有较好的对应。     

优化方法在库岸斜坡稳定性评价中的应用

对三峡库区归州老滑坡在库水位从175m下降到145m过程的滑坡稳定性进行研究,通过黄金分割方法优化计算时步,利用MIDAS/GTS有限元软件分析了库水位下降时岸坡内孔隙水压力的变化及由此引起的岸坡稳定性变化,确定了库水位下降量与库岸斜坡稳定安全系数的关系,结果表明:将优化方法用到库岸斜坡稳定性分析中,可提高计算效率;在库水位下降过程中,斜坡的稳定安全系数不是单调降低,而存在一个极小值;三峡库区归州老滑坡基本稳定。