基于多模型的西宁市人口规模预测

人口是反映国情、国力基本情况的重要指标,是区域研究所必须考虑的重要因素之一。合理、准确地预测城市人口规模,是城市与区域规划中首先要考虑的基本问题,也是保证规划科学性与可实施性的关键性前提。以西宁市2000-2011年历年总人口为样本数据,分别构建了一元线性回归模型、马尔萨斯模型、logistic模型及GM（1,1）模型,并进行模型检验。结果表明：（1）模型均通过模型精度检验且精度较高,GM（1,1）模型拟合度最高,均误差达到0.004%,马尔萨斯模型拟合度最低,为-1.440 8%;（2）分析模型预测精度差异产生原因及适用性,表明深入、准确地分析样本数据特征,恰当选择分析方法对于控制人口预测精度尤为重要。由于西宁市2000-2011年人口样本数据在2005及2009年数据存在波动性,破坏了其与一元线性回归模型及马尔萨斯模型的拟合度,导致在4种模型中,Logistic及GM（1,1）模型预测精度较高,而GM（1,1）模预测精度最高,所以采用GM（1,1）模型进行西宁市人口预测,得到西宁市人口预测的最终结果：2012年西宁市总人口将达到225.89×10⁴人,2015年将达到233.39×10⁴人,2020年将达到246.37×10⁴人。从结果看,未来9 a西宁市人口将呈现持续平稳增长的态势,但随着时间推进人口增长速度将逐渐下降。     

克克齐矿区铜矿床地质、地球物理特征及找矿远景

克克齐矿区铜矿床分别产于石炭系中统本巴图组二岩段及上统阿木山组二岩段的海相火山碎屑沉积岩中，地表以铁帽的形式存在，岩石见褐铁矿化，探槽中可见有孔雀石。该铜矿床的成因类型是海相火山岩型。地下铜矿体的上方有明显的激电异常反映，激电异常应是本区寻找赋存在海相火山碎屑岩地层中铜矿体的找矿有利标志。文章论述了铜矿床所处的区域地质背号、矿区和矿床（体）地质特征、地球物理特征，初步分析了引起矿致异常的条件和因素，对异常进行了评价，并提出了找矿建议。     

GEODETIC AND TELESEISMIC CONSTRAINTS ON SLIP DISTRIBUTION OF 2015 MW6.4 PISHAN EARTHQUAKE

On July 3^rd, 2015, a M_W6.4 earthquake occurred on Pishan County, Xinjiang, located in the front of western Kunlun thrust belt, which is the largest earthquake(M_W6.0~7.0)in the past 40 years in this region. In this study, we collected both the near-filed geodetic coseismic deformation observations including 4 GPS sites and one high-resolution ALOS-2 InSAR imagery, and far-field teleseismic P waveforms from 25 stations provided by IRIS/USGS, to invert the fault parameters(strike and dip)and coseismic rupture model of 2015 M_W6.4 Pishan earthquake. Using the finite fault theory, a non-linear simulated annealing algorithm was employed to resolve our joint inversion problem. The strike (120°~130°) and dip angle(35°~40°)of optimal models are different from that of some previous studies, and the dip change is strongly constrained by combined data than that of strike. In fixing the geometric parameters of optimal fault model, we also considered data weight(5)(geodetic data/teleseismic P waveforms)and constrained weight from moment and smooth factor(2.5). Clearly, our results indicate that the slip distribution mainly concentrates in the depth range from 9 to 16km and a length range of 20km along the strike direction, which is similar to the spatial distribution of the relocated aftershocks. The maximum slip is~95cm. The seismic moment release is 5.45×10¹⁸N·m, corresponding to M_W6.42. Compared with the single data set, geodetic data or teleseismic waveform, our joint inversion model could simultaneously constrain the seismic moment and slip distribution well, thus avoiding effectively a lower-resolution rupture distribution determined by teleseismic-only inversion and a bias released moment estimated by the geodetic-only inversion. Importantly, we should consider both the near-field geodetic data and far-field teleseismic data in retrieving the rupture model for accurately describing the seismogenic structure of active fault in western Kunlun region.     

巯基改性蒙脱石对中国北方中碱性农田土壤镉钝化效果研究

农田土壤重金属污染是影响中国农产品环境质量安全的主要因素。钝化材料是修复农田重金属污染土壤的关键材料,研究开发出高效土壤重金属钝化材料,对于修复重金属污染农田和保障农产品食用安全非常重要。本文以蒙脱石为原材料,将巯基基团负载在其表面或层间制备巯基改性蒙脱石,借助X射线衍射(XRD)、扫描电镜(SEM)、透射电镜(TEM)和傅里叶红外光谱(FTIR)等技术表征巯基改性蒙脱石的特性,并开展室内土培试验,采用二乙三胺五乙酸浸提-火焰原子吸收分光光度法分析土壤镉的有效态,通过Tessier修正顺序七步提取法分析土壤镉的赋存形态。结果表明：蒙脱石经巯基改性后不仅新增了C−H、S−H共价键,而且增强了−OH和C=O化学键的活性,能与Cd2+发生巯基及羟基配位吸附。供试土壤添加巯基改性蒙脱石后,由于巯基配位吸附作用使土壤离子交换态镉转化为铁锰氧化物结合态,而增强的羟基配位吸附作用使其转化为碳酸盐结合态,结果使土壤中镉的赋存形态发生显著改变,离子交换态大幅减少,作物根系可吸收的土壤有效镉显著降低。添加1%、3%、5%巯基改性蒙脱石后,土壤有效镉分别降低21.92%、69.11%、82.90%;而作为对照组添加1%、3%、5%蒙脱石仅分别降低3.37%、1.80%、6.71%。蒙脱石经巯基改性后对土壤镉的钝化效果得到显著提升,土壤有效镉的降低幅度有随巯基改性蒙脱石添加量增加而提高的趋势。巯基改性蒙脱石对中国北方中碱性农田土壤镉的钝化效果显著,具有一定的参考应用价值。     

蛇绿岩及蛇绿岩中浅色岩的SHRIMP U-Pb测年

文中简要评述了蛇绿岩的层状辉长岩,斜长岩和斜长花岗岩,以橄榄岩为主岩的花岗岩和蛇绿岩中的埃达克岩的锆石SHRIMP U-Pb年龄的地质意义。层状辉长岩(或堆晶层状辉长岩)通常起源于洋脊下的岩浆房,因而它的形成年龄代表洋壳形成的时代。斜长岩与层状辉长岩的时代相近或略晚。斜长花岗岩年龄的解释极其依赖锆石组成和地球化学证据。橄榄岩为主岩的花岗岩,可能记录蛇绿岩的侵位时代。蛇绿岩中的埃达克岩是消减洋壳在深部的部分熔融的产物。文中发表了新疆扎河坝蛇绿岩SHRIMP定年的中间成果,并简略地介绍了滇川西部金沙江和内蒙古图林凯等地的研究实例。根据层状辉长岩的测定结果,扎河坝蛇绿岩形成于(489±4)Ma,金沙江蛇绿岩形成于(328±8)Ma。内蒙古图林凯蛇绿岩中埃达克岩形成于(467±13)Ma～(429±7)Ma。块状辉长岩、斜长花岗岩和橄榄岩为主岩的花岗质岩石记录了蛇绿岩的复杂演化。新疆扎河坝蛇绿岩中的块状辉长岩中存在多组锆石年龄值。较老的一组为468～511 Ma,与层状辉长岩和斜长岩相似,记录了蛇绿岩或洋壳的形成时代,但是,岩石中的大部分锆石年龄为396～419 Ma,加权平均年龄为(406±4)Ma,可能反映了一次部分熔融事件。滇川西部金沙江蛇绿岩中的斜长花岗岩的形成年龄为约300～285Ma,晚于层状辉长岩和?     

煤巷弱胶结顶板稳定性分析与变形控制技术

煤层顶板为弱胶结岩体时稳定性差,常在煤炭回采过程中或巷道掘进时发生大变形或失稳等现象,维护难度较大。针对煤巷弱胶结粉砂岩顶板力学特征与变形控制等问题,以广西林场煤矿煤巷弱胶结粉砂岩顶板支护工程为工程背景,采用现场调研、实验室试验、理论分析等方法进行研究。通过现场调研,发现研究巷道有顶板岩层自承能力差、受水环境影响、支护结构失效率高、底板受水影响底鼓量大、受采动影响等特征;顶板岩石点荷载试验表明,其单轴抗压强度仅为1.9～ 2.3 MPa,采用电镜扫描发现,弱胶结粉砂岩以粗粒矿物为骨架;在普氏理论的基础上,推导了巷道顶板和两帮承压极限表达式,提出了提高巷道围岩整体强度和承载能力、确定合理的锚杆支护参数、顶板设计锚索加强支护等弱胶结巷道围岩控制要点。依据试验分析与理论研究成果,提出了以注浆加固为基础,锚杆和锚索联合支护的控制方案,并在林场煤矿进行了工业性试验。现场监测数据表明,设计的支护方案可以有效地控制煤巷弱胶结粉砂岩顶板变形。     

Spatiotemporal variations of internal P-loading and the related mechanisms in the large shallow Lake Chaohu

Spatiotemporal variations of P species and adsorption behavior in water column, interstitial water, and sediments were investigated in the large shallow eutrophic Lake Chaohu. Orthophosphate (Ortho-P) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were significantly higher in the western part than in the eastern part of the lake, due to different nutrient inputs from the surrounding rivers. Moreover, particulate phosphorus (PP) concentration was in a similar spatial pattern to Ortho-P and TP concentrations, and also showed significantly positive correlation with the biomass of Microcystis, indicating more uptake and store of phosphorus by Microcystis than by other algae. Increase of pH and intensive utilization of P by phytoplankton were the main factors promoting P (especially Fe-P) release from the sediment to interstitial water during the cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Chaohu. Spatial dynamics in TP concentration, P species and adsorption behavior of the sediment, coupled with the statistical analyses, suggested that the spatial heterogeneity of P contents in the sediment was influenced by various factors, e.g. human activities, soil geochemistry and mineral composition. In spite of similar TP contents in the sediments, increase in proportion of Fe-P concentration in the sediment may result in a high risk of P release.     

基于图形数据库NEO4J的政务空间信息融合研究

随着信息化测绘时代的快速发展,整个社会产生了大量的信息资源.从数据规模角度来说,政府拥有国内最为庞大的数据储量,掌握着大量的、权威的、关键的数据资源,是大数据时代的"财富"拥有者.整合图形数据库NEO4J自带的融合检索服务引擎,分析、整理、融合、统计这些数据,建立索引,提取有用信息,提供友好的查询服务界面,是在大数据时代背景下值得思考的问题.     

Effect of agricultural land use on the chemistry of groundwater from basaltic aquifers, Jeju Island, South Korea

Geochemical processes were identified as controlling factors of groundwater chemistry, including chemical weathering, salinization from seawater and dry sea-salt deposition, nitrate contamination, and rainfall recharge. These geochemical processes were identified using principal component analysis of major element chemistry of groundwater from basaltic aquifers in Jeju Island, South Korea, a volcanic island with intense agricultural activities. The contribution of the geochemical processes to groundwater chemistry was quantified by a simple mass-balance approach. The geochemical effects due to seawater were considered based on Cl contributions, whereas the effects due to natural chemical weathering were based on alkalinity. Nitrogenous fertilizers, and especially the associated nitrification processes, appear to significantly affect groundwater chemistry. A strong correlation was observed between Na, Mg, Ca, SO₄ and Cl, and nitrate concentrations in groundwater. Correspondingly, the total major cations, Cl, and SO₄ in groundwater were assessed to estimate relative effect of N-fertilizer use on groundwater chemistry. Cl originates more from nitrate sources than from seawater, whereas SO₄ originates mostly from rainwater. N-fertilizer use has shown the greatest effect on groundwater chemistry, particularly when nitrate concentrations exceed 6–7 mg/L NO₃–N. Nitrate contamination significantly affects groundwater quality and 18% of groundwater samples have contamination-dominated chemistry.