What drives policy change for REDD+? A qualitative comparative analysis of the interplay between institutional and policy arena factors

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) has emerged as a promising climate change mitigation mechanism in developing countries. In order to identify the enabling conditions for achieving progress in the implementation of an effective, efficient and equitable REDD+, this paper examines national policy settings in a comparative analysis across 13 countries with a focus on both institutional context and the actual setting of the policy arena. The evaluation of REDD+ revealed that countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America are showing some progress, but some face backlashes in realizing the necessary transformational change to tackle deforestation and forest degradation. A Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) undertaken as part of the research project showed two enabling institutional configurations facilitating progress: (1) the presence of already initiated policy change; and (2) scarcity of forest resources combined with an absence of any effective forestry framework and policies. When these were analysed alongside policy arena conditions, the paper finds that the presence of powerful transformational coalitions combined with strong ownership and leadership, and performance-based funding, can both work as a strong incentive for achieving REDD+ goals.

Key policy insights

• The positive push of already existing policy change, or the negative stress of resource scarcity together with lack of effective policies, represents institutional conditions that can support REDD+ progress.

• Progress also requires the presence of powerful transformational coalitions and strong ownership and leadership. In the absence of these internal drivers, performance-based funding can work as a strong incentive.

• When comparing three assessments (2012, 2014, 2016) of REDD+ enabling conditions, some progress in establishing processes of change can be observed over time; however, the overall fluctuation in progress of most countries reveals the difficulty in changing the deforestation trajectory away from business as usual.

     

中国东北地区冬季气温趋势及反相模态分析

利用1951—2010年我国东北地区共97个台站的逐月气温资料,应用trend-EOF和EOF分析方法研究了我国东北地区冬季气温的趋势模态和反相模态及其影响因子。trend-EOF的结果表明,东北地区均为一致型的趋势变化,trend-PC1有明显的年代际周期变化和更长期的上升趋势变化特征。去除全球变暖信号后的EOF分析结果表明:第一模态仍为全区一致型的空间分布,而第二模态的空间分布呈现南北反相型的分布特征,是东北冬季气温变化模态中极为重要的一部分,对应的时间序列有明显的年际周期变化,前两个模态可以解释总方差80%以上的变化。东北地区全区一致的上升趋势是在全球变暖大背景下发生的,既是对全球变暖的局地响应,同时全球变暖也使大气环流发生了变化,西伯利亚高压减弱,纬向环流增强,导致了东北地区冬季气温全区的上升趋势。赤道东太平洋的异常海温对第二模态的出现具有一定的预示意义,当太平洋出现典型的厄尔尼诺年海温距平场分布特征时,东北南部较常年偏暖,北部地区却较常年偏冷。     

Uncertainty in drought monitoring by the Standardized Precipitation Index: the case study of the Abruzzo region (central Italy)

As shown by several authors, drought monitoring by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) presents some uncertainties, mainly dependent on the choice of the probability distribution used to describe the cumulative precipitation and on the characteristics (e.g., length and variability) of the dataset. In this paper, the uncertainty related to SPI estimates has been quantified and analyzed with regards to the case study of the Abruzzo region (Central Italy), by using monthly precipitation recorded at 75 stations during the period 1951–2009. First, a set of distributions suitable to describe the cumulative precipitation at the 3-, 6-, and 12-month time scales was identified by using L-moments ratio diagrams. The goodness-of-fit was evaluated by applying the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, and the Normality test on the derived SPI series. Then the confidence intervals of SPI have been calculated by applying a bootstrap procedure. The size of the confidence intervals has been considered as a measure of uncertainty, and its dependence on several factors such as the distribution type, the time scale, the record length, and the season has been examined. Results show that the distributions Pearson type III (PE3), Weibull (WEI), Generalized Normal (GNO), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Gamma (GA2) are all suitable to describe the cumulative precipitation, with a slightly better performance of the PE3 and GNO distributions. As expected, the uncertainty increases as the record length and time scale decrease. The leading source of uncertainty is the record length while the effects due to seasonality and time scale are negligible. Two-parameter distributions make it possible to obtain confidence intervals of SPI (particularly for extreme values) narrower than those obtained by three-parameter distributions. Nevertheless, due to a poorer goodness of fit, two-parameter distributions can provide less reliable estimates of the precipitation probability. In any event, independently of the type of distribution, the SPI estimates corresponding to extreme precipitation values are always characterized by a relevant uncertainty. This is due to the explosion of the probability variability that occurs when precipitation values approach the tails of the supposed distribution.     

内蒙古西辽河流域特种玉米品种特性及气候区划

基于玉米本身的特性和用途的不同,将玉米分为高油型玉米、高淀粉型玉米、高赖氨酸型玉米和甜玉米四大类型.根据每种玉米品种对气候条件、土壤类型、地形特征等的不同需求,以通辽地区作为内蒙古东部西辽河流域玉米主产区的示范区,提出了特种玉米的区划指标,并利用GIS技术进行适宜种植区域划分.内蒙古通辽地区大部分农区适宜种植特种玉米,最适宜区、适宜区基本上均位于通辽南部和中部农业区.     

K 近邻非参数回归概率预报技术及其应用

针对参数回归技术制作概率预报存在拟合好、但预报结果不稳定的现象, 提出了用K近邻非参数回归技术制作概率预报的新途径。K 近邻非参数回归技术包括历史样本数据库、近邻子集生成和优化以及预报量估计4 个主要部分。利用该技术进行了单要素概率预报(主要包括云量和降水)和多维联合概率预报(降水、总云量、风速和气温)试验, 并对试验结果进行了检验。实例研究结果表明:该文所给出的计算方案预报稳定性好, 准确率较高,具有良好的业务应用价值。     

A Machine Learning-based Cloud Detection Algorithm for the Himawari-8 Spectral Image

Cloud Masking is one of the most essential products for satellite remote sensing and downstream applications. This study develops machine learning-based (ML-based) cloud detection algorithms using spectral observations for the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) onboard the Himawari-8 geostationary satellite. Collocated active observations from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) are used to provide reference labels for model development and validation. We introduce both daytime and nighttime algorithms that differ according to whether solar band observations are included, and the artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF) techniques are adopted for comparison. To eliminate the influences of surface conditions on cloud detection, we introduce three models with different treatments of the surface. Instead of developing independent ML-based algorithms, we add surface variables in a binary way that enhances the ML-based algorithm accuracy by ~5%. Validated against CALIOP observations, we find that our daytime RF-based algorithm outperforms the AHI operational algorithm by improving the accuracy of cloudy pixel detection by ~5%, while at the same time, reducing misjudgment by ~3%. The nighttime model with only infrared observations is also slightly better than the AHI operational product but may tend to overestimate cloudy pixels. Overall, our ML-based algorithms can serve as a reliable method to provide cloud mask results for both daytime and nighttime AHI observations. We furthermore suggest treating the surface with a set of independent variables for future ML-based algorithm development.     

Palaeolimnological studies of the eutrophication of volcanic Lake Albano (Central Italy)

We use palaeolimnological techniques to reconstruct the eutrophication history of a volcanic lake (Lake Albano, central Italy) over the past three centuries. The presence of annual varves down to the bottom of the core (c. 1700 A.D.) indicated the lack of bioturbation and likely long-term meromixis. Sedimentation rates were estimated by varve counts (calcite/diatom couplets), indicating a mean rate of 0.15 cm yr^–1. The reconstruction of eutrophication was traced using past populations of algal and photosynthetic bacteria (through their fossil pigment), and geochemistry, as well as fossil remains of chironomids. Phaeophorbidea and the red carotenoid astaxanthin were used to detect past zooplankton development.The first sign of trophic change related to human activities is datedc. 1870 A.D. From that period onward a sharp increase of authigenic CaCO₃, nitrogen, N:P ratio, and dinoxanthin, a characteristic carotenoid of Chrysophyceae and Dinophyceae, is observed.Chironomid analyses showed the near absence of a deep water fauna throughout the core length. The populations of chironomid larvae are restricted to oxygenated littoral zones. In fact, the few fossil remains found are primarily of littoral origin, representing shallow water midges that were transported to profundal waters. The reduction of total chironomid in the uppermost layers of the core is to be related to human land uses.     

城市和城市群可持续发展指数研究进展

21世纪是城市的世纪,城市的高质量发展对区域和全球可持续发展至关重要。中国城市化发展迅速,城市化率从1978年的17.9%增加到2019年的60.6%,2030年将达到70%,大部分人口居住在城市。城市是中国经济发展的引擎,以全国近7%的土地面积生产了70%的国内生产总值(GDP),而城市群更是集聚了全国大部分城镇人口和GDP。因此,城市和城市群的健康与可持续性将决定中国未来发展的质量与进程。识别城市和城市群发展的程度、存在的问题以及国内外差距,亟需进行城市可持续发展的评价。本研究系统综述了城市可持续发展评价的思想与指标体系的发展历程,重点基于联合国可持续发展目标(SDG)框架考察了开展城市可持续发展评价的方法,提出了构建城市和城市群可持续发展指数的途径,并从平台构建、大数据基础、跟踪发布等方面提出了推进城市可持续发展指数评价建立城市发展“仪表盘”的思路。基于联合国SDG框架的城市和城市群可持续发展指数可为目标城市对标其他城市、开展不同区域城市的对比、找准发展目标与识别存在问题等方面提供重要支撑。     

基础设施投入效率时空演变及其关联格局研究——基于中国地级以上城市的实证

城市基础设施效率研究是科学评价基础设施发展质量的重要环节.在构建城市基础设施投入效率评价指标体系的基础上,借助MaxDEA软件,运用DEA模型,对2006-2016年中国地级以上城市基础设施投入产出效率进行测度和分解,探究其时空演变特征,并通过ESDA方法分析其空间关联格局.研究结果显示:①中国城市基础设施的总体投入产...     

Rill flow resistance law under equilibrium bed‐load transport conditions

In this paper, a recently deduced flow resistance equation for open channel flow was tested under equilibrium bed‐load transport conditions in a rill. First, the flow resistance equation was deduced applying dimensional analysis and the incomplete self‐similarity condition for the flow velocity distribution. Then, the following steps were carried out for developing the analysis: (a) a relationship (Equation  13 ) between the Γ function of the velocity profile, the rill slope, and the Froude number was calibrated by the available measurements by Jiang et al.; (b) a relationship (Equation  17 ) between the Γ function, the rill slope, the Shields number, and the Froude number was calibrated by the same measurements; and (c) the Darcy–Weisbach friction factor values measured by Jiang et al. were compared with those calculated by the rill flow resistance equation with Γ estimated by Equations  13 and 17 . This last comparison demonstrated that the rill flow resistance equation, in which slope and Shields number, representative of sediment transport effects, are introduced, is characterized by the lowest values of the estimate errors.