Impact of Three-Parameter Weibull Models in Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazards

This paper investigates the suitability of a three-parameter (scale, shape, and location) Weibull distribution in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. The performance is also compared with two other popular models from same Weibull family, namely the two-parameter Weibull model and the inverse Weibull model. A complete and homogeneous earthquake catalog (Yadav et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 167:1331–1342, 2010) of 20 events (M ≥ 7.0), spanning the period 1846 to 1995 from north–east India and its surrounding region (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E), is used to perform this study. The model parameters are initially estimated from graphical plots and later confirmed from statistical estimations such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and method of moments (MoM). The asymptotic variance–covariance matrix for the MLE estimated parameters is further calculated on the basis of the Fisher information matrix (FIM). The model suitability is appraised using different statistical goodness-of-fit tests. For the study area, the estimated conditional probability for an earthquake within a decade comes out to be very high (≥0.90) for an elapsed time of 18 years (i.e., 2013). The study also reveals that the use of location parameter provides more flexibility to the three-parameter Weibull model in comparison to the two-parameter Weibull model. Therefore, it is suggested that three-parameter Weibull model has high importance in empirical modeling of earthquake recurrence and seismic hazard assessment.     

Difference of mercury bioaccumulation in red mullets from the north-western Mediterranean and Black seas

The relationships between total mercury (Hg) concentration and stable nitrogen isotope ratio (δ¹⁵N) were evaluated in Mullus barbatus barbatus and M. surmuletus from the Mediterranean Sea and M. barbatus ponticus from the Black Sea. Mercury concentration in fish muscle was six times higher in the two Mediterranean species than in the Black Sea one for similar sized animals. A positive correlation between Hg concentration and δ¹⁵N occurred in all species. Increase in Hg concentration with δ¹⁵N was high and similar in the two Mediterranean fishes and much lower in the Black Sea species. Since this was neither related to trophic level difference between species nor to methylmercury (MeHg) concentration differences between the north-western Mediterranean and the Black Sea waters, we suggested that the higher primary production of the Black Sea induced a dilution of MeHg concentration at the base of the food webs.     

Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840

Three tree-ring rainfall reconstructions from China and Korea are used in this paper to investigate the East Asian summer monsoon-related precipitation variation over the past 160 years. Statistically, there is no linear correlation on a year-by-year basis between Chinese and Korean monsoon rainfall, but region-wide synchronous variation on a decadal-scale was observed. More rainfall intervals were 1860–1890, 1910–1925, and 1940–1960, and dry or even drought periods were 1890–1910, 1925–1940, and 1960–present. Reconstructions also display that the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation suddenly changed from more into less around mid-1920. These tree-ring precipitation records were also confirmed by Chinese historical dryness/wetness index and Korean historical rain gauge data.     

Sea-level changes and hydrothermal sedimentary mineralization of large-superlarge ore deposits among Sinian to Triassic in South China

Among the Sinian to Triassic strata in South China, the stratiform, quasi-stratiform and lenticular metallic deposits in association with hydrothermal sedimentation mainly occur in the four periods: (1) the Sinian Datangpo interglacial period, (2) the early period of Early Cambrian, (3) the late period of Middle Devonian to early period of Late Devonian, and (4) the late period of Early Permian. The four mineralization periods all happened around the maximum flooding period in the third-order seal-level cycle during the ascending stage in the first-order sea-level cycle. The deep seawater layer, starved and non-compensatory basin, low sedimentary rate, and low energy and anoxic environment during the maximum flooding period are very suitable for the formation and preservation of large to superlarge hydrothermal sedimentary deposits. The maximum flooding period also coincided with the intensified regional tectonism, extensive deep magmatism and hydrothermal sedimentation, which provide, for the formation of large to superlarge hydrothermal sedimentary deposits through the rapid accumulation of hydrothermal sediments, the needed dynamics, ore-forming materials and favorable passway for hydrothermal fluids to enter the basin.     

Studies on seismic waves

The development of seismic wave study in China in the past four years is reviewed. The discussion is divided into several aspects, including seismic wave propagation in laterally homogeneous media, laterally heterogeneous media, anisotropic and porous media, surface wave and seismic wave inversion, and seismic wave study in prospecting and logging problems. Important projects in the current studies on seismic wave is suggested as the development of high efficient numerical methods, and applying them to the studies of excitation and propagation of seismic waves in complex media and strong ground motion, which will form a foundation for refined earthquake hazard analysis and prediction.     

Basic characteristics of active tectonics of China

Active tectonics is inferred to all the structures which have been active since the late Pleisto-cene, 100—120 ka B.P., are still active recently, and will be active in a certain time period in the future, such as active faults, active folds, active basi…     

Analysis of the influence of Taihu Lake and the urban heat islands on the local circulation in the Yangtze Delta

The influences of human activities on regional climate and weather are tremendous. The re-gional temperature and the distributing of wind field are influenced, whereas the precipitation in-tensity and the spatial and temporal distribution of the precipita…     

Differences of granitic weathering at the northern and southern feet of Dabie Mountains,Central China: Implication for tectonic and climatic environments

Previous studies of weathering generally started with geochemistry[1—8] and mineralogy[9—12], and have been focused on chemical weathering rates[1—3], removability-enrichment of elements[3—6] during chemical weathering, and the age of weathering profi…     

Thermal bidirectional gap probability model for row crop canopies and validation

Land surface temperature is a key parameter in monitoring the status of crop water stress by remote sensing, and studying the water and energy balance in cropland ecosystem. The component temperatures of crop and soil are especially significant in remote …     

Distribution of <Superscript>226</Superscript>Ra in the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Sea and its hydrologic implications

Radium-226 (²²⁶Ra) activities were measured in the surface water samples collected from the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Sea during the First Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition. The results showed that ²²⁶Ra concentrations in the surface water ranged from 0.28 to 1.56 Bq/m³ with an average of 0.76 Bq/m³ in the Arctic Ocean, and from 0.25 to 1.26 Bq/m³ with an average of 0.71 Bq/m³ in the Bering Sea. The values were obviously lower than those from open oceans in middle and low latitudes, indicating that the study area may be partly influenced by sea ice meltwater. In the Bering Sea, ²²⁶Ra in the surface water decreased northward, probably as a result of the exchange between the ²²⁶Ra-deficient sea ice meltwater and the ²²⁶Ra-rich Pacific water. In the Arctic Ocean, ²²⁶Ra in the surface water increased northward and eastward. This spatial distribution of ²²⁶Ra reflected the variation of the ²²⁶Ra-enriched river component in the water mass of the Arctic Ocean. The vertical profiles of ²²⁶Ra in the Canadian Basin showed a concentration maximum at 200 m, which could be attributed to the inputs of the Pacific water or/and the bottom shelf water with high ²²⁶Ra concentration. This conclusion was consistent with the results from ²H, ¹⁸O tracers.