Landslide impacts in Germany: A historical and socioeconomic perspective

Landslide impacts on infrastructure and society in the Federal Republic of Germany are associated with damage costs of about US$300 million on annual average. Despite the large overall losses due to widespread landslide activity, there is a lack of historical impact assessments, not just for Germany’s low mountain areas but those of entire Central Europe as well. This paper is a collection of three case studies from Germany that seek a better understanding of landslide impacts and their economic relevance at local and regional level. The first case study investigates damage types and mitigation measures at a representative landslide site in ways that support to gain insight into historical hazard interactions with land use practices. This case history is followed by a case study dealing with fiscal cost impacts of landslide damages for an example city and the highway system of the Lower Saxon Uplands, NW Germany. In addition to a cost-burden analysis for affected public budgets, an overview of the principles of disaster financing in landslide practice is given. The third case study is focused on the conflicts of urban development in hazard areas, with an economic approach to balancing safety and public welfare interests. Each case study is based on historical data sets extracted from Germany’s national landslide database. This paper presents three different case studies that in combination are a first step towards assessing landslide impacts in integrated perspective.     

The false Basel earthquake of May 12, 1021

The Basel (CH) area is a place with an increased seismic hazard. Consequently, it is essential to scrutinize a famous statement by Stumpf (Gemeiner loblicher Eydgnoschafft Stetten, Landen und Völckeren Chronikwirdiger thaaten beschreybung. Durch Johann Stumpffen beschriben, 1548) that allegedly a large earthquake took place in Basel in 1021. This can be disproved unambiguously by applying historical and philosophical methods.     

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2011

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2011. During this period, 522 earthquakes and 92 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. With a total of only 10 events with M _L????2.5, the seismic activity in the year 2011 was far below the average over the previous 36?years. Most noteworthy were the earthquake sequence of Sierre (VS) in January, with two events of M _L 3.3 and 3.2, the M _L 3.3 earthquake at a depth of 31?km below Bregenz, and the M _L 3.1 event near Delémont. The two strongest events near Sierre produced shaking of intensity IV.     

Chemical changes in fluid composition due to CO2 injection in the Altmark gas field: preliminary results from batch experiments

Dissolution?Cprecipitation phenomena induced by CO₂ injection to Altmark Permian sandstone were observed through laboratory experiments carried out under simulated reservoir conditions (125?°C and 50 bars of pressure). The rock sample was collected from the Altmark gas reservoir, which is being considered for enhanced gas recovery. Two sets of experiments were performed with pulverized rock samples in a closed batch reactor with either pure water (run 1) or 3?M aqueous NaCl solution (run 2) and reacted with injected CO₂ for 3, 5, and 9?days. The liquid samples were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy and total reflection X-ray fluorescence, where the latter proved to be a feasible alternative to conventional analytical techniques, especially since only small sample volumes (about 10???l) are needed. Chemical analysis for both fluids (water and NaCl brine) indicated a significant dissolution of calcite and anhydrite in the solution, which might be a crucial process during CO₂ injection. The brine solution enhanced the dissolution of calcite and anhydrite compared to pure water at the beginning of the reaction. Moreover, the progressive higher Si⁴⁺/Al³⁺ molar ratios (in average by a factor of 3) in the brine experiments indicated quartz dissolution. Thermodynamic calculations of mineral saturation indices highlighted the dissolution of the Ca-bearing minerals, which was in agreement with experimental results. Modeling enabled an evaluation of the dissolution processes of minerals in a low-salinity region, yet hindrances to model more saline conditions emphasize the need for further laboratory studies in order to parameterize models for deep aquifer conditions.     

Bacterial tetraether membrane lipids in peat and coal: Testing the MBT-CBT temperature proxy for climate reconstruction

Peatlands are widespread and important natural archives of environmental change. Here we explore the potential of the recently introduced MBT-CBT proxy (methylation index and cyclisation ratio of branched tetraethers) to estimate past annual mean air temperature (MAT) based on the distribution of bacterially-derived branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) membrane lipids in peat and coal. To this end, branched GDGTs in an ombrotrophic peat bog from Switzerland and three coal deposits of increasing maturity were analysed.For the surface of the bog, reconstructed annual MAT is higher than both measured annual MAT and measured in situ pore water temperature. Changes in the CBT ratio, considered a proxy for pH, with depth in the bog do not match with present day in situ pore water pH, but coincide with a peat stratigraphic boundary. This indicates that GDGTs down the bog profile are predominantly fossil and not derived from extant biomass. The MBT-CBT derived annual MAT record also shows a large drop at this stratigraphic boundary, which likely relates to past change in trophic status of the bog. Branched GDGTs are abundant in an immature lignite (vitrinite reflectance, R_o 0.25%), but occur in low amount in a slightly more mature coal (R_o 0.32%). Annual MAT could be reconstructed for the lignite alone and is higher than other proxy-based estimates from approximately the same time and location.Our results indicate potential for the application of the MBT-CBT proxy in peat and immature coals, but improved constraints on the effects of different types of peat on branched GDGT distributions as well as improved calibration of MAT estimates are needed before the method can be confidently applied.     

Fall,classification, and exposure history of the Mifflin L5 chondrite

The Mifflin meteorite fell on the night of April 14, 2010, in southwestern Wisconsin. A bright fireball was observed throughout a wide area of the midwestern United States. The petrography, mineral compositions, and oxygen isotope ratios indicate that the meteorite is a L5 chondrite fragmental breccia with light/dark structure. The meteorite shows a low shock stage of S2, although some shock‐melted veins are present. The U,Th‐He age is 0.7 Ga, and the K‐Ar age is 1.8 Ga, indicating that Mifflin might have been heated at the time of the 470 Ma L‐chondrite parent body breakup and that U, Th‐He, and K‐Ar ages were partially reset. The cosmogenic radionuclide data indicate that Mifflin was exposed to cosmic rays while its radius was 30–65 cm. Assuming this exposure geometry, a cosmic‐ray exposure age of 25 ± 3 Ma is calculated from cosmogenic noble gas concentrations. The low ²²Ne/²¹Ne ratio may, however, indicate a two‐stage exposure with a longer first‐stage exposure at high shielding. Mifflin is unusual in having a low radiogenic gas content combined with a low shock stage and no evidence of late stage annealing; this inconsistency remains unexplained.     

The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE

This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS.     

Mediterranean climate extremes in synoptic downscaling assessments

The behaviour of precipitation and maximum temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area under climate change conditions is analysed in the present study. In this context, the ability of synoptic downscaling techniques in combination with extreme value statistics for dealing with extremes is investigated. Analyses are based upon a set of long-term station time series in the whole Mediterranean area. At first, a station-specific ensemble approach for model validation was developed which includes (1) the downscaling of daily precipitation and maximum temperature values from the large-scale atmospheric circulation via analogue method and (2) the fitting of extremes by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Model uncertainties are quantified as confidence intervals derived from the ensemble distributions of GPD-related return values and described by a new metric called “ratio of overlapping”. Model performance for extreme precipitation is highest in winter, whereas the best models for maximum temperature extremes are set up in autumn. Valid models are applied to a 30-year period at the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) by means of ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model data for IPCC SRES B1 scenario. The most distinctive future changes are observed in autumn in terms of a strong reduction of precipitation extremes in Northwest Iberia and the Northern Central Mediterranean area as well as a simultaneous distinct increase of maximum temperature extremes in Southwestern Iberia and the Central and Southeastern Mediterranean regions. These signals are checked for changes in the underlying dynamical processes using extreme-related circulation classifications. The most important finding connected to future changes of precipitation extremes in the Northwestern Mediterranean area is a reduction of southerly displaced deep North Atlantic cyclones in 2070–2099 as associated with a strengthened North Atlantic Oscillation. Thus, the here estimated future changes of extreme precipitation are in line with the discourse about the influence of North Atlantic circulation variability on the changing climate in Europe.     

Development of an instantaneous GNSS/MEMS attitude determination system

Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) are well suited for attitude determination. The key to high-precision GNSS-attitude determination is the ambiguity resolution. In case of kinematic applications, the rapidity of this process is of particular importance. We present a new instantaneous attitude determination system for GNSS-challenged environments. The single-epoch ambiguity resolution is performed by the ambiguity function method aided by a micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS), leading to success rates above 99 %. The GNSS/MEMS fusion is realized by the use of an extended Kalman filter. When the system is stationary, a state vector augmentation with a shaping filter reduces systematic effects in the GNSS-attitudes. By means of two field experiments, the system was tested successfully. Despite poor GNSS measurement conditions, it provided reliable and accurate results, with empirical standard deviations in the range of 0.03–0.1 deg for the yaw angle.     

Field observations of wave refraction and propagation pathways on coral reef platforms

Field experiments were conducted to investigate the refraction and propagation of ocean waves across two coral reef platforms in the Maldives, central Indian Ocean. A total of seven pressure sensors were deployed on each reef to quantify temporal and spatial variations in wave characteristics across the platform surfaces. Directional wave properties were calculated from high frequency (2 Hz) wave and current records obtained at two locations on each reef and corroborate theoretically predicted propagation pathways derived from an analytical wave refraction model. Results demonstrate that reef geometry critically controls the refraction and propagation behaviour of incident swell across the reef structures. Differences in the magnitude of refraction (approximately 57° and 14°) observed on each reef can be attributed to variations in platform shape and orientation to incident waves. Results demonstrate that reef flat wave patterns define the segmentation of platform surfaces into distinctive high and low wave energy zones. Furthermore, wave focussing has been identified as a major mechanism controlling the transformation of wave energy across the reefs. Results provide the first field‐based validation of wave refraction and convergence on coral reefs and have significant implications for sedimentation processes and the formation of platform deposits. Reef configurations which promote marked wave convergence are more likely to retain sediment on the reef surface, whereas platforms that induce less refraction and changes in the direction of incident waves have a higher potential for the off‐reef evacuation of sediment over leeward reef margins. Results of wave measurements substantiate such projections and provide a first order explanation for the existence and absence of a coral cay on the two study reefs. The study presents empirical evidence of wave refraction and convergence on coral reefs and establishes a baseline for future investigations of hydrodynamic process controls on platform sedimentation and island formation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.