Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes

Flood damage modelling has traditionally been limited to the local, regional or national scale. Recent flood events, population growth and climate change concerns have increased the need for global methods with both spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper presents a first estimation of global economic exposure to both river and coastal flooding for the period 1970–2050, using two different methods for damage assessment. One method is based on population and the second is based on land-use within areas subject to 1/100 year flood events. On the basis of population density and GDP per capita, we estimate a total global exposure to river and coastal flooding of 46 trillion USD in 2010. By 2050, these numbers are projected to increase to 158 trillion USD. Using a land-use based assessment, we estimated a total flood exposure of 27 trillion USD in 2010. For 2050 we simulate a total exposure of 80 trillion USD. The largest absolute exposure changes between 1970 and 2050 are simulated in North America and Asia. In relative terms we project the largest increases in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The models also show systematically larger growth in the population living within hazard zones compared to total population growth. While the methods unveil similar overall trends in flood exposure, there are significant differences in the estimates and geographical distribution. These differences result from inherent model characteristics and the varying relationship between population density and the total urban area in the regions of analysis. We propose further research on the modelling of inundation characteristics and flood protection standards, which can complement the methodologies presented in this paper to enable the development of a global flood risk framework.     

Future climate in the Pacific Northwest

Climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on the whole reproduce the observed seasonal cycle and twentieth century warming trend of 0.8°C (1.5°F) in the Pacific Northwest, and point to much greater warming for the next century. These models project increases in annual temperature of, on average, 1.1°C (2.0°F) by the 2020s, 1.8°C (3.2°F) by the 2040s, and 3.0°C (5.3°F) by the 2080s, compared with the average from 1970 to 1999, averaged across all climate models. Rates of warming range from 0.1°C to 0.6°C (0.2°F to 1.0°F) per decade. Projected changes in annual precipitation, averaged over all models, are small (+1% to +2%), but some models project an enhanced seasonal cycle with changes toward wetter autumns and winters and drier summers. Changes in nearshore sea surface temperatures, though smaller than on land, are likely to substantially exceed interannual variability, but coastal upwelling changes little. Rates of twenty-first century sea level rise will depend on poorly known factors like ice sheet instability in Greenland and Antarctica, and could be as low as twentieth century values (20 cm, 8^″) or as large as 1.3 m (50^″).     

Optical and near-infrared colours as a discriminant of the age and metallicity of stellar populations

We present a comprehensive analysis of the ability of current stellar population models to reproduce the optical ( ugriz ) and near-infrared ( JHK ) colours of a small sample of well-studied nearby elliptical and S0 galaxies. We find broad agreement between the ages and metallicities derived using different population models, although different models show different systematic deviations from the measured broad-band fluxes. Although it is possible to constrain simple stellar population models to a well-defined area in age–metallicity space, there is a clear degeneracy between these parameters even with such a full range of precise colours. The precision to which age and metallicity can be determined independently, using only broad-band photometry with realistic errors, is  Δ[Fe/H]≃ 0.18  and  Δlog Age ≃ 0.25  . To constrain the populations and therefore the star formation history further, it will be necessary to combine broad-band optical–IR photometry with either spectral line indices, or else photometry at wavelengths outside this range.     

Jupiter’s shrinking Great Red Spot and steady Oval BA: Velocity measurements with the ‘Advection Corrected Correlation Image Velocimetry’ automated cloud-tracking method

We show that between 1996 and 2006, the area circumscribed by the high-speed collar of the Great Red Spot (GRS) shrunk by 15%, while the peak velocities within its collar remained constant. This shrinkage indicates a dynamical change in the GRS because the region circumscribed by the collar is nearly coincident with the location of the potential vorticity anomaly of the GRS. It was previously observed that the area of the clouds associated with the GRS has been shrinking. However, the cloud cover of the GRS is not coincident with the location of its potential vorticity anomaly or any other of its known dynamical features. We show that the peak velocities of the Oval BA were nearly the same in 2000, when the Oval was white, and in 2006, when it was red, as were all of the other features of the two velocities fields. To measure temporal changes in the GRS and Oval, we extracted velocities from images taken with Galileo, Cassini, and the Hubble Space Telescope using a new iterative method called Advection Corrected Correlation Image Velocimetry (ACCIV). ACCIV finds correlations over image pairs with 10-h time separations when other automated velocity-extraction methods are limited to time separations of 2 h or less. Typically, ACCIV velocities produced from images separated by 10 h had errors that are 3-6 times smaller than similar velocities extracted from images separated by 2 h or less. ACCIV produces velocity fields containing hundreds of thousands of independent correlation vectors (tie-points). Dense velocity fields are needed to locate the loci of peak velocities and other features.     

Chemical and chronologic complexity in the convecting upper mantle: Evidence from the Taitao ophiolite, southern Chile

Exposure of the ca. 6 Ma Taitao ophiolite, Chile, located 50 km south of the Chile Triple Junction, allows detailed chemical and isotopic study of rocks that were recently extracted from the depleted mantle source of mid-ocean ridge basalts (DMM). Ultramafic and mafic rocks are examined for isotopic (Os, Sr, Nd, and O), and major and trace element compositions, including the highly siderophile elements (HSE). Taitao peridotites have compositions indicative of variable extents of partial melting and melt extraction. Low δ¹⁸O values for most whole rock samples suggest some open-system, high-temperature water–rock interaction, most likely during serpentinization, but relict olivine grains have δ¹⁸O values consistent with primary mantle values. Most of the peridotites analyzed for Nd–Sr isotopes have compositions consistent with estimates for the modern DMM, although several samples are characterized by ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd indicative of crustal contamination, most likely via interactions with seawater. The peridotites have initial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratios that range widely from 0.1168 to 0.1288 (γ_Os = −8.0 to +1.1), averaging 0.1239 (γ_Os = −2.4), which is comparable to the average for modern abyssal peridotites. A negative correlation between the Mg^# of relict olivine grains and Os isotopic compositions of whole rock peridotites suggests that the Os isotopic compositions reflect primary mantle Re/Os fractionation produced by variable extents of partial melting at approximately 1.6 Ga. Recent re-melting at or near the spatially associated Chile Ridge further modified these rocks, and Re, and minor Pt and Pd were subsequently added back into some rocks by late-stage melt–rock or fluid–rock interactions.In contrast to the peridotites, approximately half of the mafic rocks examined have whole rock δ¹⁸O values within the range of mantle compositions, and their Nd and Sr isotopic compositions are all generally within the range of modern DMM. These rocks have initial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratios, calculated for 6 Ma, that range from 0.126 (γ_Os = −1) to as high as 0.561 (γ_Os = +342). The Os isotopic systematics of each of these rocks may reflect derivation from mixed lithologies that include the peridotites, but may also include pyroxenites with considerably more radiogenic Os than the peridotites. This observation supports the view that suprachondritic Os present in MORB derives from mixed mantle source lithologies, accounting for some of the worldwide dichotomy in ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os between MORB and abyssal peridotites.The collective results of this study suggest that this >500 km³ block of the mantle underwent at least two stages of melting. The first stage occurred at 1.6 Ga, after which the block remained isolated and unmixed within the DMM. A final stage of melting recently occurred at or near the Chile Ridge, resulting in the production of at least some of the mafic rocks. Convective stirring of this mantle domain during a >1 Ga period was remarkably inefficient, at least with regard to Os isotopes.     

Line-of-Sight Observables Algorithms for the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager</Emphasis> (HMI) Instrument Tested with <Emphasis Type="Italic">Interferometric Bidimensional Spectrometer</Emphasis> (IBIS) Observations

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory produces line-of-sight (LOS) observables (Doppler velocity, magnetic-field strength, Fe i line width, line depth, and continuum intensity) as well as vector magnetic-field maps at the solar surface. The accuracy of LOS observables is dependent on the algorithm used to translate a sequence of HMI filtergrams into the corresponding observables. Using one hour of high-cadence imaging spectropolarimetric observations of a sunspot in the Fe i line at 6173 Å through the Interferometric Bidimensional Spectrometer installed at the Dunn Solar Telescope, and the Milne–Eddington inversion of the corresponding Stokes vectors, we test the accuracy of the observables algorithm currently implemented in the HMI data-analysis pipeline: the MDI-like algorithm. In an attempt to improve the accuracy of HMI observables, we also compare this algorithm to others that may be implemented in the future: a least-squares fit with a Gaussian profile, a least-squares fit with a Voigt profile, and the use of second Fourier coefficients in the MDI-like algorithm.     

Moonlets and clumps in Saturn's F ring

Cassini UVIS star occultations by the F ring detect 13 events ranging from 27 m to 9 km in width. We interpret these structures as likely temporary aggregations of multiple smaller objects, which result from the balance between fragmentation and accretion processes. One of these features was simultaneously observed by VIMS. There is evidence that this feature is elongated in azimuth. Some features show sharp edges. At least one F ring object is opaque and may be a “moonlet.” This possible moonlet provides evidence for larger objects embedded in Saturn's F ring, which were predicted as the sources of the F ring material by Cuzzi and Burns [Cuzzi, J.N., Burns, J.A., 1988. Icarus 74, 284-324], and as an outcome of tidally modified accretion by Barbara and Esposito [Barbara, J.M., Esposito, L.W., 2002. Icarus 160, 161-171]. We see too few events to confirm the bi-modal distribution which Barbara and Esposito [Barbara, J.M., Esposito, L.W., 2002. Icarus 160, 161-171] predict. These F ring structures and other youthful features detected by Cassini may result from ongoing destruction of small parent bodies in the rings and subsequent aggregation of the fragments. If so, the temporary aggregates are 10 times more abundant than the solid objects. If recycling by re-accretion is significant, the rings could be quite ancient, and likely to persist far into the future.     

Warming the early earth—CO2 reconsidered

Despite a fainter Sun, the surface of the early Earth was mostly ice-free. Proposed solutions to this so-called “faint young Sun problem” have usually involved higher amounts of greenhouse gases than present in the modern-day atmosphere. However, geological evidence seemed to indicate that the atmospheric CO₂ concentrations during the Archaean and Proterozoic were far too low to keep the surface from freezing. With a radiative-convective model including new, updated thermal absorption coefficients, we found that the amount of CO₂ necessary to obtain 273 K at the surface is reduced up to an order of magnitude compared to previous studies. For the late Archaean and early Proterozoic period of the Earth, we calculate that CO₂ partial pressures of only about 2.9 mb are required to keep its surface from freezing which is compatible with the amount inferred from sediment studies. This conclusion was not significantly changed when we varied model parameters such as relative humidity or surface albedo, obtaining CO₂ partial pressures for the late Archaean between 1.5 and 5.5 mb. Thus, the contradiction between sediment data and model results disappears for the late Archaean and early proterozoic.     

Molecular line mapping of the giant molecular cloud associated with RCW 106 – II. Column density and dynamical state of the clumps

We present a fully sampled C¹⁸O (1–0) map towards the southern giant molecular cloud (GMC) associated with the H  ii region RCW 106, and use it in combination with previous ¹³CO (1–0) mapping to estimate the gas column density as a function of position and velocity. We find localized regions of significant ¹³CO optical depth in the northern part of the cloud, with several of the high-opacity clouds in this region likely associated with a limb-brightened shell around the H  ii region G333.6−0.2. Optical depth corrections broaden the distribution of column densities in the cloud, yielding a lognormal distribution as predicted by simulations of turbulence. Decomposing the ¹³CO and C¹⁸O data cubes into clumps, we find relatively weak correlations between size and linewidth, and a more sensitive dependence of luminosity on size than would be predicted by a constant average column density. The clump mass spectrum has a slope near −1.7, consistent with previous studies. The most massive clumps appear to have gravitational binding energies well in excess of virial equilibrium; we discuss possible explanations, which include magnetic support and neglect of time-varying surface terms in the virial theorem. Unlike molecular clouds as a whole, the clumps within the RCW 106 GMC, while elongated, appear to show random orientations with respect to the Galactic plane.