Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?

The world is generally becoming less violent, but the debate on climate change raises the specter of a new source of instability and conflict. In this field, the policy debate is running well ahead of its academic foundation—and sometimes even contrary to the best evidence. Although comparative research on security implications of climate change is rapidly expanding, major gaps in knowledge still exist. Taken together, extant studies provide mostly inconclusive insights, with contradictory or weak demonstrated effects of climate variability and change on armed conflict. This article reviews the empirical literature on short-term climate/environmental change and intrastate conflict, with special attention to possible insecurity consequences of precipitation and temperature anomalies and weather-related natural disasters. Based on this assessment, it outlines priorities for future research in this area.     

On the causes of pressure oscillations in low‐permeable and low‐compressible porous media

Nonphysical pressure oscillations are observed in finite element calculations of Biot's poroelastic equations in low‐permeable media. These pressure oscillations may be understood as a failure of compatibility between the finite element spaces, rather than elastic locking. We present evidence to support this view by comparing and contrasting the pressure oscillations in low‐permeable porous media with those in low‐compressible porous media. As a consequence, it is possible to use established families of stable mixed elements as candidates for choosing finite element spaces for Biot's equations. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Synergistic effects of water repellency and macropore flow on the hydraulic conductivity of a burned forest soil,south‐east Australia

Research shows that water repellency is a key hydraulic property that results in reduced infiltration rates in burned soils. However, more work is required in order to link the hydrological behaviour of water repellent soils to observed runoff responses at the plot and hillslope scale. This study used 5 M ethanol and water in disc infiltrometers to quantify the role of macropore flow and water repellency on spatial and temporal infiltration patterns in a burned soil at plot (<10 m²) scale in a wet eucalypt forest in south‐east Australia. In the first summer and winter after wildfire, an average of 70% and 60%, respectively, of the plot area was water repellent and did not contribute to infiltration. Macropores (r > 0·5 mm), comprising just 5·5% of the soil volume, contributed to 70% and 95%, respectively, of the field‐saturated and ponded hydraulic conductivity (K_p). Because flow occurred almost entirely via macropores in non‐repellent areas, this meant that less than 2·5% of the soil surface effectively contributed to infiltration. The hydraulic conductivity increased by a factor of up to 2·5 as the hydraulic head increased from 0 to 5 mm. Due to the synergistic effect of macropore flow and water repellency, the coefficient of variation (CV) in K_p was three times higher in the water‐repellent soil (CV = 175%) than under the simulated non‐repellent conditions (CV = 66%). The high spatial variability in K_p would act to reduce the effective infiltration rate during runoff generation at plot scale. Ponding, which tend to increase with increasing scale, activates flow through macropores and would raise the effective infiltration rates at larger scales. Field experiments designed to provide representative measurements of infiltration after fire in these systems must therefore consider both the inherent variability in hydraulic conductivity and the variability in infiltration caused by interactions between surface runoff and hydraulic conductivity. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SDI planning using the system dynamics technique within a community of practice: lessons learnt from Tanzania

There exist major challenges in accelerating the spatial data infrastructure (SDI) planning process in the developing countries as well as advocating for politicians to support the development of SDI, due to the high complexity of SDI, lack of knowledge and experience, and limited insight in the benefits. To address these challenges, a methodology for SDI planning in Tanzania, based on the system dynamics technique and the communities of practice concept, was adopted and applied within a community consisting of experts from stakeholder organizations. The groups gathered to develop an SDI plan, while they shared their knowledge and discussed their ideas that helped their understanding of SDI. By running the system dynamics model, the development of SDI over time could be simulated that gave the planning community an insight about the future effects of today’s plans and decisions. Finally, an optimum model could be developed by refinements and improvements done with the consensus of the SDI stakeholders. This model included the components and policies that are essential for a successful SDI implementation in Tanzania and can be used as a basis for SDI planning and help to gain political support. Lessons learnt from this research were promising regarding the usability of the methodology for SDI planning in comparable countries.     

Modification of Airflow Structure Due to Wave Breaking on a Submerged Topography

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - Experimental results from a combined wind–wave tank are presented. Wind profiles and resulting wind–wave spectra are described, and an investigation of the...     

Modelling Flow Routing in Permafrost Landscapes with TWI: An Evaluation against Site‐Specific Wetness Measurements

In northern peatlands the thawing of permafrost increasing the active layer depth and changing the hydrology may lead to feedbacks in the climate system through changes in the biogeochemistry of carbon. We are examining this association on the Stordalen peatland complex in subarctic Sweden by analyzing a DEM derived from LiDAR‐data and the calculated TWI. The DEM, with a spatial resolution of 1 m, and the TWI are evaluated against two seasons of water level measurements from 30 sites in the peatland. The TWI is calculated with a form‐based flow routing algorithm which produces a natural flow routing pattern. In permafrost wetlands the topography is the major driver and is very important even though its magnitude is low. Site‐specific wetness (SSW) measurements from the sites were compared with the different peatland types that occur in the study area, i.e. fen, internal fen and palsa. The results showed a strong correlation between the TWI and the palsa. The TWI was better at describing general patterns than site‐specific hydrology. The evaluation of spatial patterns of TWI against SSW reveal the resolution required to develop the technique to be useful for climate change studies.     

Discrete crack modelling for dynamically loaded,unreinforced concrete structures

The dynamic response of unreinforced concrete structures is studied taking account of initiation, extension, closing and reopening of so-called discrete cracks. The computational procedure is based on the finite-element method and is at present restricted to two-dimensional situations. The discrete cracks are simulated by separation of originally adjacent finite elements. An equivalent tensile-strength criterion is used for the initiation and extension of the cracks which are assumed to propagate perpendicularly to the principal tensile stress. If this direction does not coincide with the interelement boundaries of the finite-element mesh, the latter is automatically altered. Between elements being separated by a crack special ‘crack elements’ are introduced, which take account of the stress transfer by aggregate interlock. The equations of motion are integrated numerically using an explicit formulation. The procedures outlined are demonstrated on a simplified cross-section of a concrete gravity dam subjected to horizontal earthquake excitation.     

Using Multiple Grids in Markov Mesh Facies Modeling

A multigrid Markov mesh model for geological facies is formulated by defining a hierarchy of nested grids and defining a Markov mesh model for each of these grids. The facies probabilities in the Markov mesh models are formulated as generalized linear models that combine functions of the grid values in a sequential neighborhood. The parameters in the generalized linear model for each grid are estimated from the training image. During simulation, the coarse patterns are first laid out, and by simulating increasingly finer grids we are able to recreate patterns at different scales. The method is applied to several tests cases and results are compared to the training image and the results of a commercially available snesim algorithm. In each test case, simulation results are compared qualitatively by visual inspection, and quantitatively by using volume fractions, and an upscaled permeability tensor. When compared to the training image, the method produces results that only have a few percent deviation from the values of the training image. When compared with the snesim algorithm the results in general have the same quality. The largest computational cost in the multigrid Markov mesh is the estimation of model parameters from the training image. This is of comparable CPU time to that of creating one snesim realization. The simulation of one realization is typically ten times faster than the estimation.     

Effect of an oil spill in Spitzbergen in 1978

The oil content in the sediment and the marine life along the arctic shores of Van Mijenfjord, Spitzbergen, were investigated about two years after a spill from diesel storage tanks. High values of oil were recorded in the sediment along the shore near the tanks. The shore fauna is generally poor in these areas and the only biological effect detected was the disappearance of the amphipod Gammarus setosus from the surface layers.