Statistical modeling of extreme value behavior in North American tree-ring density series

Many analyses of the paleoclimate record include conclusions about extremes, with a focus on the unprecedented nature of recent climate events. While the use of extreme value theory is becoming common in the analysis of the instrumental climate record, applications of this framework to the spatio-temporal analysis of paleoclimate records remain limited. This article develops a Bayesian hierarchical model to investigate spatially varying trends and dependencies in the parameters characterizing the distribution of extremes of a proxy data set, and applies it to the site-wise decadal maxima and minima of a gridded network of temperature sensitive tree ring density time series over northern North America. The statistical analysis reveals significant spatial associations in the temporal trends of the location parameters of the generalized extreme value distributions: maxima are increasing as a function of time, with stronger increases in the north and east of North America; minima are significantly increasing in the west, possibly decreasing in the east, and exhibit no changes in the center of the region. Results indicate that the distribution varies as a function of both space and time, with tree ring density maxima becoming more extreme as a function of time and minima having diverging temporal trends, by spatial location. Results of this proxy-only analysis are a first step towards directly reconstructing extremal climate behavior, as opposed to mean climate behavior, by linking extremes in the proxy record to extremes in the instrumental record.     

Reconstruction of contaminant trends in a salt wedge estuary with sediment cores dated using a multiple proxy approach

The Taunton River is a partially mixed tidal estuary in southeastern Massachusetts (USA) which has received significant contaminant inputs, yet little information exists on the history of discharge and the subsequent fate of these contaminants. Three sediment cores taken along a transect were analyzed, reconstructing the spatial and temporal trends of pollution in the estuary. A combination of radiometric dating, contaminant markers, and storm layers from major hurricanes were used to establish age models and sedimentation rates. Age estimates obtained from the different dating methods compared well, establishing an accurate history of contaminant release to the estuary. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were present in one core at depths corresponding to the early 1860s, earlier than previously established dates of introduction. Temporal and spatial trends of Cr, Cu, Hg and Pb indicated multiple sources of varying input to the river. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were present in each of the cores from the 1930s onward, with elevated levels still present in surficial sediments at several sites. A unique organic compound, Topanol, which was produced locally was used as a tracer to track contaminant transport in the river. Tracer data indicates that contaminants are still being transported and deposited to surficial sediments at high concentrations well after their discharge. This reconstruction demonstrates the utility of using multiple dating proxies where often the sole use of radiometric dating techniques is not an option and provides insights into the fate of contaminants discharged decades ago but continue to represent environmental risks.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in urban soils representing different land use categories in Shanghai

An extensive soil survey was carried out in Shanghai to investigate the spatial distribution and possible sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban soils. Soil samples were collected from highways, iron-smelting plants, steel-smelting plants, shipbuilding yards, coking plants, power plants, chemical plants, urban parks, university campuses and residential areas and were analyzed for 16 PAHs by gas chromatography with mass detection. High PAH concentrations were found in all locations investigated, with mean values of soil total PAH concentrations in the range 3,279–38,868 μg/kg DM, and the PAH concentrations were significantly influenced by soil organic matter content. Soil PAH profiles in all districts were dominated by PAHs with 4–6 rings. Principal components analysis and diagnostic ratios of PAHs indicate that they were mainly derived from coal combustion and petroleum but in soils from highways the PAHs were derived largely from vehicle exhaust emissions. The high concentrations of PAHs found indicate that many urban soils in Shanghai represent a potential hazard to public health.     

Combined Effects of Tectonic and Landslide-Generated Tsunami Runup at Seward, Alaska During the M W 9.2 1964 Earthquake

We apply a recently developed and validated numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup to study the inundation of Resurrection Bay and the town of Seward by the 1964 Alaska tsunami. Seward was hit by both tectonic and landslide-generated tsunami waves during the $M_{\rm W}$ 9.2 1964 megathrust earthquake. The earthquake triggered a series of submarine mass failures around the fjord, which resulted in landsliding of part of the coastline into the water, along with the loss of the port facilities. These submarine mass failures generated local waves in the bay within 5?min of the beginning of strong ground motion. Recent studies estimate the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay to be about 211?million m³ (Haeussler et?al. in Submarine mass movements and their consequences, pp 269?C278, 2007). The first tectonic tsunami wave arrived in Resurrection Bay about 30?min after the main shock and was about the same height as the local landslide-generated waves. Our previous numerical study, which focused only on the local landslide-generated waves in Resurrection Bay, demonstrated that they were produced by a number of different slope failures, and estimated relative contributions of different submarine slide complexes into tsunami amplitudes (Suleimani et?al. in Pure Appl Geophys 166:131?C152, 2009). This work extends the previous study by calculating tsunami inundation in Resurrection Bay caused by the combined impact of landslide-generated waves and the tectonic tsunami, and comparing the composite inundation area with observations. To simulate landslide tsunami runup in Seward, we use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (J Phys Oceanogr 24(3):559?C572, 1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations. The input data set includes a high resolution multibeam bathymetry and LIDAR topography grid of Resurrection Bay, and an initial thickness of slide material based on pre- and post-earthquake bathymetry difference maps. For simulation of tectonic tsunami runup, we derive the 1964 coseismic deformations from detailed slip distribution in the rupture area, and use them as an initial condition for propagation of the tectonic tsunami. The numerical model employs nonlinear shallow water equations formulated for depth-averaged water fluxes, and calculates a temporal position of the shoreline using a free-surface moving boundary algorithm. We find that the calculated tsunami runup in Seward caused first by local submarine landslide-generated waves, and later by a tectonic tsunami, is in good agreement with observations of the inundation zone. The analysis of inundation caused by two different tsunami sources improves our understanding of their relative contributions, and supports tsunami risk mitigation in south-central Alaska. The record of the 1964 earthquake, tsunami, and submarine landslides, combined with the high-resolution topography and bathymetry of Resurrection Bay make it an ideal location for studying tectonic tsunamis in coastal regions susceptible to underwater landslides.     

Investigating sediments and rock structures beneath a river using underwater ERT

This article presents hydrogeophysical investigations performed in a well-developed, long-term hydrogeological gypsum karst research site where subsurface evaporite dissolution has led to the subsidence of a river dam and an adjacent highway; both constructed on gypsum-containing rock, southeast of Basel, Switzerland. An observation system was set up to improve the protection of surface and subsurface water resources during remedial construction measures of the highway and in order to understand the processes, as well as the temporal evolution, of rock water interaction (flow and dissolution). However, no detailed hydrogeological information beneath the river could be derived from the previous investigations. To supplement the basic knowledge on this area, underwater Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) measurements were conducted in the river bed upstream of the dam. The ERT-data are interpreted together with drill-core information and a conceptual 3D-Model of the area behind the dam and beneath the river. Results help to delineate weathered zones, associated faults and the thickness of sediment deposits behind the dam, as well as to locate voids within the local karst system. The combination of the ERT and modeling allows the optimization of future site-specific remedial construction measures.     

The overlooked role of the ocean in mercury cycling in the Arctic

The rapid and high bioaccumulation of mercury in marine mammals and its spatial and temporal variations have been a major puzzle in the Arctic. While extensive efforts have been focussed on the monitoring and chemistry of atmospheric mercury depletion events, a recent mass budget estimate of mercury in the Arctic suggests that we have overlooked the role of the ocean itself. Only through focussed studies on Hg dynamics in the Arctic Ocean under a changing climate are we going to understand what the risk of mercury is to those marine ecosystems and the people who rely on them.     

Assessing impact of urban impervious surface on watershed hydrology using distributed object-oriented simulation and spatial regression

In this study, we investigated the relationship between watershed characteristics and hydrology using high spatial resolution impervious surface area (ISA), hydrologic simulations and spatial regression. We selected 20 watersheds at HUC 12 level with different degrees of urbanization and performed hydrologic simulation using a distributed object-oriented rainfall and runoff simulation model. We extracted the discharge per area and ratio of runoff to base flow from simulation results and used them as indicators of hydrology pattern. We derived percentage of ISA, distance from ISA to streams, and stream density as the watershed characteristics to evaluate the relationship with hydrology pattern in watersheds using ordinary least square, spatial error and spatial lag regression models. The comparison indicates that spatial lag regression model can achieve better performance for the evaluation of relationship between ratio of runoff to base flow and watershed characteristics, and that three models provide similar performance for the evaluation of relationship between discharge per area and watershed characteristics. The results from regression analyses demonstrate that ISA plays an important role in watershed hydrology. Ignorance of spatial dependence in analyses will likely cause inaccurate evaluation for relationship between ISA and watershed hydrology. The hydrologic model, regression methods and relationships between watershed characteristics and hydrology pattern provide important tools and information for decision makers to evaluate the effect of different scenarios in land management.     

Feature Environmental geophysics: a site characterization tool for urban regeneration in the post-mining era

The closure and decay of industrial activity involving mining, chemical or light industrial operations has scarred the landscape of urban areas. The Government has major initiatives in urban regeneration to remediate these 'brown-field sites'.