First Data on the Isotopic Age of Zircons from Rocks of the Roseta Ultramafic Massif,Southern Margin of the São Francisco Craton (Brazil)

Doklady Earth Sciences - The results of isotope U–Pb dating of zircons from lherzolite and vein olivine orthopyroxenite composing the Roseta ultramafic massif are presented. The zircons...     

The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Spectroscopic binaries near the North Galactic Pole paper 6: BD 33° 2206

Photoelectric radial-velocity measurements have confirmed O. C. Wilson’s finding that BD 33° 2206, the secondary star in the wide visual binary ADS 8470, is a spectroscopic binary. It has an eccentric orbit with a period of 100 days. Its γ-velocity is close to the constant radial velocity of the visual primary, confirming the physical association of the stars.     

Optical Fiber Interferometers for Referencing Surface Benchmarks to Depth

—We have developed and operated optical fiber interferometers for monitoring displace ments within boreholes, as part of a program of crustal deformation measurement. These optical fiber strainmeters—a total of twelve instruments at two sites in southern California—were installed to sense the motion of the end-monuments of much longer baseline strainmeters and tiltmeters, allowing correction for any near-surface ground movement. One of the installations was specifically designed to investigate the distribution of deformation with depth, measuring over several borehole length-intervals from 5 m to 50 m. The displacements recorded over year-long time scales along these length intervals range up to 6 mm and show internal consistency and stability at the 50 μ m level. The use of these interferometers to provide correction signals for kilometer-scale crustal strain measurements has resulted in greatly improved records.     

Space-time characteristics of a fracture region determined from long-term anomalies of the radon concentration

The paper proposes a method for studying long-term anomalies of the radon concentration that are produced by an impulse generated in a fracture source over a finite time interval. Using this method, experimental data are interpreted numerically in order to determine the space-time characteristics of the fracture region and parameters of fluid migration.     

Experiments on numerical modeling of intense convection

Results of numerical simulations using the WRF-ARW nonhydrostatic model are presented for eight episodes of intense convection over European Russia in the summer of 2007. The calculations were performed on four nested grids with horizontal grid meshes of 27, 9, 3, and 1 km. Convection was parametrized on the first two grids and explicitly resolved on the other two. It has been found that simulations on finer grids with explicit calculation of convective flows make it possible to reproduce heavy rainfalls and strong-wind zones in the areas of intense convection. A preliminary verification of the short-range predictions of convective systems shows that the maximum 12-h precipitation totals and the maximum winds at 10 m are close, in the order of magnitude, to the observed values. Prediction of convection centers is the weakest point. Difficulties in the model verification associated with the absence of data with high space-time resolution are discussed.     

A possible dependence of tectonic strength on the age of the crust in Asia

In Asia, the intensity and style of active tectonics appears to depend on the age of the last orogenic activity. The shields have remained essentially undeformed during the India-Eurasian collision, but Paleozoic and Mesozoic orogenic belts apparently have been reactivated by this collision, with a suggestion of greater reactivation and more diffuse deformation of the younger belts. If the greater observed heat flow in regions of more recent orogenic activity reflects, at least in part, a greater heat flow from the mantle beneath the younger belts, then the temperatures in the mantle beneath the younger belts should be higher than beneath older belts and shields. Because of the strong dependence on temperature of the creep strength of minerals, particularly of olivine, the crust and mantle beneath the hotter, younger belts should be much weaker than those beneath older belts. This difference in temperature, and consequent difference in strength, may be the cause of the greater reactivation of younger belts.     

A mass ratio limit for primordial black holes

We augment our scenario for the formation of astronomical objects from macroscopic superstrings by the assumption that the central matter keeps its identity in the fragmentation. From the condition that the angular momentum per mass squared of this matter should be less than the Kerr limit G/c, we obtain upper limits for the ratio of the mass of central black holes M(BH) to the mass M of the host object. This limit is M(BH)/M ≈ 0.001, and, expressed in observed quantities, approximately M(BH)/M ≈ σ²/(v · c) where σ is the r.m.s. velocity, v the rotational velocity and c the velocity of light. The valuesM(BH) agree with the observed behaviour both in order of magnitude and in the variation with velocity dispersion. (© 2003 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)