GPS/LEO掩星观测的变分同化技术

在简单介绍GPS/LEO掩星探测大气的发展历史和科学意义之后,详细阐述了反演的基本原理;分析了标准反演中存在的问题,并说明一维变分同化(1DVAR)在反演方法中的重要性;给出了一维变分同化中价值函数的求解,以及各种同化因子;简单介绍了对当前气象学中普遍使用的四维变分同化(4DVAR);重点讨论了各种同化方法,以及使用各种同化因子的优缺点。最后,通过CHAMP卫星的观测实例分析,验证了GPS数据在数值天气预报(NWP)中的作用,以及相对于标准反演法一维变分对气象要素的改进。     

Approach to Mountain Hazards in Tibet, China

Tibet is located at the southwest boundary of China. It is the main body of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the highest and the youngest plateau in the world. Owing to complicated geology, Neo-tectonic movements, geomorphology, climate and plateau environment, various mountain hazards, such as debris flow, flash flood, landslide, collapse, snow avalanche and snow drifts, are widely distributed along the Jinsha River (the upper reaches of the Yangtze River), the Nu River and the Lancang River in the east, and the Yarlungzangbo River, the Pumqu River and the Poiqu River in the south and southeast of Tibet. The distribution area of mountain hazards in Tibet is about 589,000 km^2, 49.3% of its total territory. In comparison to other mountain regions in China, mountain hazards in Tibet break out unexpectedly with tremendously large scale and endanger the traffic lines, cities and towns, farmland, grassland, mountain environment, and make more dangers to the neighboring countries, such as Nepal, India, Myanmar and Bhutan. To mitigate mountain hazards, some suggestions are proposed in this paper, such as strengthening scientific research, enhancing joint studies, hazards mitigation planning, hazards warning and forecasting, controlling the most disastrous hazards and forbidding unreasonable human exploring activities in mountain areas.     

CARBON DYNAMICS OF WETLAND IN THE SANJIANG PLAIN

1INTRODUCTIONWetlandsplayanimportant roleintheprocessofcar-bonstorage.Thetotalcarbonstoredindifferentkindsofwetlandsisabout15%-35%ofthetotalcarboninthegloballandsoils(POSTetal.,1982;GORHAM,1991).Inaddition,wetlandsaresignificantnaturalsources fortheatmospheric CH4 (MOORE,1994).It isestimatedthatabout110×1012gCH4 originates fromanaerobicdecompositioninthenaturalwetlands,CH4 emission fromthenaturalwetlandsis15%-30%oftheglobalCH4 emission andtheCH4 emission from thepeat land at hi…     

Optical monitoring of the quasar 4C 38.41

The results of a photometric monitoring of the quasar 4C 38.41, performed at the optical R and B bands in 2002 February–March, are presented. With a 60/90 cm Schmidt telescope at the Xinglong station of the National Astronomical Observatories of China, we observed the source exhibiting amplitude variations of up to 0.78 mag in both bands during the whole campaign. Intraday and even intranight variations are detected as well. A typical variability time-scale of about 36 d is derived from our 2-month observations at the optical bands, which is identical to that found at a radio wavelength of 92 cm, suggesting a common origin for the variations in 4C 38.41 from optical to radio bands.     

SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

疏散星团的最新研究进展

疏散星团在天文学和天体物理学研究中有着多方面的重要性。近年来在观测和理论工作上都取得了显著的进展。综述了疏散星团的研究现状，对成员判别、基本参数确定、团与恒星的演化、团的结构和动力学进行了详细评述。     

成团天体系统成员概率计算的有效性问题

本文提出了一个普适的衡量成团天体系统成员概率计算结果的有效性指数：Ｅ＝１－ＮΣ｛Ｐ（ｉ）［１－Ｐ（ｉ）］｝／ΣＰ（ｉ）Σ［１－Ｐ（ｉ）］｝，并以此对以Ｓａｎｄｅｒｓ方法为基础的各种成员确定模型的有效性进行了分析．从总体上说，运动学资料（自行、视向速度等）是一类有效的观测判据．     

Models of CN and C2 comae for comet Tago-Sato-Kosaka and comet bennett

Based on the CN and C₂ comae isophotes for two comets (1961 IX and 1970 16) given by Rahe et al. and the relevant theory of physical chemistry, we have deduced the distributions of the CN and C₂ modecules in the coma, their scale heights and mean lifetimes. The results favour the viewpoint that HCN is the parent of CN, and that C₂H₂ is the parent of C₂.     

The FAST/SKA site selection in Guizhou province

Many karst depressions with diameters of 300 m to 500 m, suitable for constructing Arecibo-style radio telescopes, were identified in the south of Guizhou Province by Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies together with field investigations. Fundamental topography and landform databases were established for 391candidate depressions, and using GIS the3-dimensional images of depressions, at a scale of 1:10000, were then simulated to fit a spherical antenna. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.