How to Earn the Status of Honest Broker? Scientists’ Roles Facilitating the Political Water Supply Decision-Making Process

“Honest broker” refers to scientists facilitating complex political decisions from a neutral position, aiming to expand the scope of choice available instead of advocating a certain policy. This article reflects on the experiences of three scientists acting as honest brokers while carrying out a multicriteria evaluation to help politicians choose the water supply option for the city of Oulu, Finland. The process was considered successful and many politicians said that they have never before been that well informed when making a decision. The case primarily shows that besides the common knowledge brokerage roles targeting knowledge exchange, the honest brokerage approach relates more to managing social relationships and balancing political games and rapidly evolving discussions. Trustful relationships increased the perceived credibility of the brokers and ensured two-way communication. On the other hand, the brokers faced ethical dilemmas and difficulties of staying impartial while finding out confidential information related to political strategies.     

The dependence of organohalogen compound concentrations on herring age and size in the Bothnian Sea, northern Baltic

The concentrations and composition profiles of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans, polychlorinated biphenyls, polybrominated diphenyl ethers and polychlorinated naphthalenes were determined in herring individuals collected from the commercial catches of the Bothnian Sea, northern Baltic. The median age of herring was 5.0 years and in the muscle the median toxic equivalent concentration of PCDD/Fs was 5.6 WHO(PCDD/F)-TEQ pg/g fresh weight (fw) and that of PCBs 2.7 WHO(PCB)-TEQ pg/g fw. The median sum concentration of PBDEs was 1.4 ng/g fw and that of PCNs 0.1 ng/g fw. Differences in age-dependent accumulation between the organohalogen groups and individual congeners were major. In the Bothnian Sea the content of organohalogen compounds in herring is obviously elevated due to the availability and large proportion of Mysis crustaceans in their diet. More intensive fishing could reduce the concentrations of organohalogens, including the abundant, accumulative and toxic 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF congener in the Baltic herring catch.     

Velocities of earthquake-generated Pn waves in Japan measured by the time-term method

Velocities of upper-mantle P waves (P_n) generated by large shallow earthquakes in the Japan area have been studied by the time-term method in three areas of the Japanese islands. Data reported from routinely recording seismic stations, grouped to act as elongated arrays, were used. The velocities observed correspond to the P-wave velocity in the top layer of the mantle. For a region in southwestern Japan not spanned by active volcanoes the value obtained was 8.0 km/s, while for central Japan and on northern Honshu Island the corresponding values were as low as 7.6–7.7 km/s. After allowance for the influence of systematic earthquake mislocation, the probable error of the measurements is estimated not to exceed 0.1 km/s. The differences in P-wave velocity are attributable to the regional variation of subcrustal temperature in Japan reported by Uyeda and Horai, with high temperatures and low velocities in the volcanic zone.The time terms tend to be larger on the Japan Sea side than on the Pacific side of the Japanese islands. We suggest that this is due to an increase in P velocity in the mantle towards the Pacific, perpendicular to our profiles of measurement.     

Rock, till, and stream-sediment geochemistry in the search for porphyry-type Mo---Cu---Au deposits in the proterozoic rautio batholith, Western Finland

About 170 bedrock, 550 till, and 180 organic-rich stream-sediment samples were collected at a regional scale over the Rautio batholith, and 490 rock and 1050 till samples at a local scale from around the Susineva Mo---Cu---Au occurrence which is located in the middle of the batholith. The rock samples from the regional study and selected rock samples from the Susineva area were analyzed for 32 elements. The rest of the rock samples from Susineva and all other sample types were analyzed for Mo and Cu only.     

The Relationship Between Radiative Forcing and Temperature: What Do Statistical Analyses of the Instrumental Temperature Record Measure?

Comparing statistical estimates for the long-run temperature effect of doubled CO₂ with those generated by climate models begs the question, is the long-run temperature effect of doubled CO₂ that is estimated from the instrumental temperature record using statistical techniques consistent with the transient climate response, the equilibrium climate sensitivity, or the effective climate sensitivity. Here, we attempt to answer the question, what do statistical analyses of the observational record measure, by using these same statistical techniques to estimate the temperature effect of a doubling in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide from seventeen simulations run for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 2 (CMIP2). The results indicate that the temperature effect estimated by the statistical methodology is consistent with the transient climate response and that this consistency is relatively unaffected by sample size or the increase in radiative forcing in the sample.     

Contribution of forest wood products to negative emissions: historical comparative analysis from 1960 to 2015 in Norway,Sweden and Finland

Background

Forests and forest products can significantly contribute to climate change mitigation by stabilizing and even potentially decreasing the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere. Harvested wood products (HWP) represent a common widespread and cost-efficient opportunity for negative emissions. After harvest, a significant fraction of the wood remains stored in HWPs for a period that can vary from some months to many decades, whereas atmospheric carbon (C) is immediately sequestered by vegetation re-growth. This temporal mismatch between oxidation of HWPs and C uptake by vegetation generates a net sink that lasts over time. The role of temporary carbon storage in forest products has been analysed and debated in the scientific literature, but detailed bottom-up studies mapping the fate of harvested materials and quantifying the associated emission profiles at national scales are rare. In this work, we quantify the net CO₂ emissions and the temporary carbon storage in forest products in Norway, Sweden and Finland for the period 1960–2015, and investigate their correlation. We use a Chi square probability distribution to model the oxidation rate of C over time in HWPs, taking into consideration specific half-lives of each category of products. We model the forest regrowth and estimate the time-distributed C removal. We also integrate the specific HWP flows with an emission inventory database to quantify the associated life-cycle emissions of fossil CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O.

Results

We find that assuming an instantaneous oxidation of HWPs would overestimate emissions of about 1.18 billion t CO₂ (cumulative values for the three countries over the period 1960–2015).We also find that about 40 years after 1960, the starting year of our analysis, are sufficient to detect signs of negative emissions. The total amount of net CO₂ emissions achieved in 2015 are about ??3.8 million t CO₂, ??27.9 t CO₂ and ??43.6 t CO₂ in Norway, Sweden, and Finland, respectively.

Conclusion

We argue for a more explicit accounting of the actual emission rates from HWPs in carbon balance studies and climate impact analysis of forestry systems and products, and a more transparent inclusion of the potential of HWP as negative emissions in perspective studies and scenarios. Simply assuming that all harvested carbon is instantaneously oxidized can lead to large biases and ultimately overlook the benefits of negative emissions of HWPs.

     

Lithostratigraphy and Optically Stimulated Luminescence age determinations of pre‐Late Weichselian deposits in the Suupohja area,western Finland

The lithostratigraphy of pre‐Late Weichselian sediments and OSL‐dating results from four localities in the Suupohja area of western Finland, adjacent to the centre of the former Scandinavian glaciations, are presented. The studied sections expose glacifluvial, quiet‐water, littoral and aeolian deposits overlain by Middle and/or Late Weichselian tills. Litho‐ and biostratigraphical results together with seven OSL age determinations on buried glacifluvial sediment at Rävåsen (94±15 ka) and on till‐covered littoral and aeolian sediments at Risåsen, Rävåsen, Jätinmäki and Kiviharju (79±10 to 54±8 ka), accompanied by previous datings and interpretations, suggest that the glacifluvial sediments at Risåsen were deposited at the end of the Saalian Stage (MIS 6) and those at Risåsen were deposited possibly in the Early Weichselian Substage (MIS 5d?). Palaeosol horizons and ice‐wedge casts together with the dated littoral and aeolian sediments between the Harrinkangas Formation (Saalian) and the overlying till(s) indicate that western Finland was ice‐free during most of the Weichselian time. Littoral deposits, dated to the Middle Weichselian (MIS 4–3), occur at altitudes of 50–90 m a.s.l., which indicates significant glacio‐isostatic depression. The depression resulted from expansion of the ice sheet in the west of Finland at that time.     

Ray asymptotic propagation of the spectra of elastic surface waves in a waveguide with laterally smooth inhomogeneities

Summary. A technique based on ray asymptotics has been developed to propagate complex spectra of elastic normal mode surface waves in a waveguide with material and geometrical properties varying smoothly in the lateral directions. In the technique, the original problem defined in the unstretched coordinates has been transformed into an eiconal equation as well as into a certain number of transport equations defined in stretched coordinates.
The solution of the eiconal equation is equal to the solution of the eigenproblem of the eiconal operator A₀. Due to the self-adjointness of A₀, in each of the relevant local inner product spaces, LIPS, the solution of the eigenproblem, A₀ψ= v ψ results in the set { v _t} of real local eigenvalues and in the orthonormal system {ψ_t} of local eigenvectors.
As the Hamiltonian function of an initial value problem, each eigenvalues gives birth to a bicharacteristic curve as well as to the related ray. The introduction of the rays induces connections between the vertical cross-sections of the waveguide.
Finally, for each asymptotic order j , the LIPS-valued transport equations are reduced to a set of matricial propagation equations in the local spectral amplitude vectors, LSAVs. Consequently, a knowledge of the initial conditions at a vertical cross-section makes it possible to propagate the LSAVs along the rays of the relevant modes. However, to complete the propagation one needs, in addition to the initial values, information about certain additional quantities, non-diagonal terms of order j , diagonal terms of orders lower than j and the auxiliary boundary terms of orders from 1 to j . The treatment has been completed by the propagation of the modal phases along the relevant rays.