Short- and Long-Term Chlorophyll a Variability in the Shallow Microtidal Patos Lagoon Estuary, Southern Brazil

In the shallow microtidal Patos Lagoon estuary, southern Brazil (32° 07′ S–52° 06′ W), chlorophyll a (Chl a) variability was studied at different time scales during the last 25 years (hourly–daily sampling in 1984/1985; weekly sampling in 1986 and from 1988 to 1990; monthly sampling from 1993 to 2008). Phytoplankton biomass variation seems to be most influenced by hydrology, which is primarily driven by meteorological factors like wind, rainfall, and evaporation. However, it was observed that the hydrological driving forces play different roles at different time scales. For instance, short-term Chl a variability is mainly controlled by winds, while long-term changes are related to the freshwater input by rainfall. Significant correlation was found between the total amount of rain in the year and the mean annual value of Chl a, though this relationship was linear until 1,500 mm of rain per year. After this threshold, mean annual Chl a values dropped significantly, probably due to a washout of the produced biomass from the estuary. Similarly, low rainfall levels and drought years lead to small phytoplankton biomass due to scarcity of nutrient, mainly silicate, or a possible inhibitory effect generated by high ammonium concentration. In this sense, large-scale Chl a variability would be related to the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation climatic anomaly, which influences the rainfall levels in Southern Brazil, though sampling periodicity has also great influence on this relationship. No Chl a or nutrient enrichment was observed in the estuarine region along the last years, indicating that this estuary is not subject to an eutrophication process. In contrast, signals of an ongoing oligotrophication are observed, possibly a remote effect of the eutrophication in the Northern area of the lagoon where the phytoplankton nutrients uptake may act as a biological filter mechanism.     

Mapping soil pollution by spatial analysis and fuzzy classification

Spatial analysis and fuzzy classification techniques were used to estimate the spatial distributions of heavy metals in soil. The work was applied to soils in a coastal region that is characterized by intense urban occupation and large numbers of different industries. Concentrations of heavy metals were determined using geostatistical techniques and classes of risk were defined using fuzzy classification. The resulting prediction mappings identify the locations of high concentrations of Pb, Zn, Ni, and Cu in topsoils of the study area. The maps show that areas of high pollution of Ni and Cu are located at the northeast, where there is a predominance of industrial and agricultural activities; Pb and Zn also occur in high concentrations in the northeast, but the maps also show significant concentrations of Pb and Zn in other areas, mainly in the central and southeastern parts, where there are urban leisure activities and trade centers. Maps were also prepared showing levels of pollution risk. These maps show that (1) Cu presents a large pollution risk in the north–northwest, midwest, and southeast sectors, (2) Pb represents a moderate risk in most areas, (3) Zn generally exhibits low risk, and (4) Ni represents either low risk or no risk in the studied area. This study shows that combining geostatistics with fuzzy theory can provide results that offer insight into risk assessment for environmental pollution.     

The Temperature and Ionization of T-Tauri Micro-Jets

The effects of phenomenological heating functions on the flow thermodynamics of cold T-Tauri disk winds are examined. Turbulent dissipation (mechanical) heating and a warm disk corona are invoked to heat the wind. The temperature and ionization evolution are solved for along the flow. The results allow the construction of synthetic observations; emission maps, forbidden line ratios, line fluxes and line profiles; and successfully reproduce a number of observed trends. Mechanical heating produces line ratios and fluxes that fit very well with observations. Invoking a warm disk corona successfully reproduces forbidden line profile low velocity components.     

Vegetation patterns in South America associated with rising CO2: uncertainties related to sea surface temperatures

Spatially precise forecasts of the impacts of climate change on the distribution of major vegetation types are essential for the implementation of effective conservation and land use policy. However, existing studies frequently omit major sources of climate variability that can significantly increase the uncertainty of projections. In this study we demonstrate how different predictions for sea surface temperature (SST) for the first half of the twenty-first century increase the uncertainty associated with forecasts of the future distribution of major ecosystems in South America. This is demonstrated through a numerical experiment using a coupled climate–vegetation model (CCM3-IBIS) for IPCC emission scenario A2 that incorporates the SST data from ten different models. The study reveals an increasing uncertainty in the ability to forecast future vegetation patterns, such that by 2050 the simulation is unable to robustly forecast the vegetation cover in an area equivalent to 28 % in South America (5?×?10⁶ km²). The future of the central and northeastern regions of Brazil is especially uncertain, with outcomes, ranging from savanna, and open shrubland to grassland. Recognizing and managing such uncertainty should be a priority for decision makers.     

The turbulent dispersion of surface drifters by water waves: experimental study

Ocean Dynamics - Dispersion of a passive tracer by water waves is of significant importance for many scientific and technological problems including bio-diversity of marine life, ecological impact...     

Grain-size end-members and environmentally sensitive grain-size components: A comparative study in the mud shelf depocenters off southern Brazil

The current study aims to do a comparative analysis of the results obtained with two End-Member(EM)grain-size modeling techniques(AnalySize and BasEMMA)and the Environmental Sensitive Grain-Size(ESGS)modeling for sediment samples collected in the mudbelts of the southern Brazilian shelf.The methods were compared using grain-size data from the south Brazilian shelf,and the results are discussed here.It is the first time that the concept of ESGS,in its present form,is utilized outside China.The results show that despite its relative ease of use,the ESGS is not fully comparable to the EM analyses,and only two grain-size ESGS classes were recognized as analogous to EMs.The comparison of the AnalySize and BasEMMA procedures also revealed significant differences between the techniques.A comparative analysis between the two EM techniques revealed advantages in the BasEMMA,especially in the better correlation of the end-members with the original grain size distribution.The analysis of the geographical distribution of the EM abundances allowed point sources of sandy populations to be recognized as well as the contribution of the Rio de la Plata as a source of silty sediments to be inferred.     

The pyrogeography of sub-Saharan Africa: a study of the spatial non-stationarity of fire–environment relationships using GWR

This study analyses the relationship between fire incidence and some environmental factors, exploring the spatial non-stationarity of the phenomenon in sub-Saharan Africa. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) was used to study the above relationship. Environment covariates comprise land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. GWR was compared to ordinary least squares, and the hypothesis that GWR represents no improvement over the global model was tested. Local regression coefficients were mapped, interpreted and related with fire incidence. GWR revealed local patterns in parameter estimates and also reduced the spatial autocorrelation of model residuals. All the covariates were non-stationary and in terms of goodness of fit, the model replicates the data very well (R ² = 87%). Vegetation has the most significant relationship with fire incidence, with climate variables being more important than anthropogenic variables in explaining variability of the response. Some coefficient estimates exhibit locally different signs, which would have gone undetected by a global approach. This study provides an improved understanding of spatial fire–environment relationships and shows that GWR is a valuable complement to global spatial analysis methods. When studying fire regimes, effects of spatial non-stationarity need to be incorporated in vegetation-fire modules to have better estimates of burned areas and to improve continental estimates of biomass burning and atmospheric emissions derived from vegetation fires.     

Numerical analysis of an embankment on soft soils considering large displacements

The behaviour of an embankment built on a Portuguese soft soil is analysed considering the material and geometric non-linearity associated with a coupled soil–water formulation. The numerical predictions are compared with the field data in terms of settlements, horizontal displacements and excess pore water pressures. The repercussions of including the large displacements formulation are also studied. It is found that the analysis considering large displacements results in a decrease in settlements and an increase in the rate of excess pore pressure dissipation, both of which are related to the reduction of the thickness of a deformable layer.     

Hydromechanical Analysis of Masonry Gravity Dams and their Foundations

A numerical model for the hydromechanical analysis of masonry dams based on the discrete element method is presented. The dam and the rock foundation are represented as block assemblies, and a coupled flow-stress analysis is performed in an integrated manner for the entire system. Complex block shapes may be obtained by assembling elementary blocks into macroblocks, allowing the application of the model to situations ranging from equivalent continuum to fully discontinuum analysis. A contact formulation was developed based on an accurate edge–edge approach, incorporating mechanical and hydraulic behavior. The main numerical aspects are described, with an emphasis in the flow analysis explicit algorithm. An application to an existing masonry dam is presented, analyzing its present condition, with excessive seepage, and the proposed rehabilitation intervention. An evaluation of sliding failure mechanisms was also performed, showing the expected improvement in the safety of the structure.     

Numerical study on the effect of submerged depth on the horizontal plate wave energy converter

The growing search for clean and renewable energy sources has given rise to the studies of exploring sea wave energy. This paper is concerned with the numerical evaluation of the main operational principle of a submerged plate employed for the conversion of wave energy into electrical one. The numerical model used to solve the conservation equations of mass, momentum and transport of volume fraction is based on the finite volume method （FVM）. In order to tackle with the flow of mixture of air-water and its interaction with the device, the multiphase model volume of fluid （VOF） is employed. The purpose of this study is the evaluation of a numerical model for improvement of the knowledge about the submerged plate wave energy converter, as well as the investigation of the effect of the distance from the plate to the bottom of the sea （HP） on the performance of the converter. The simulations for several distances of the plate from the seabed show that the optimal efficiency is 64%, which is obtained for HP=0.53 m （88% of the depth）. This efficiency is 17% larger than that found in the worst case （HP=0.46 m, 77% of the depth）.